美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年8月11日）

美国消费者支持豆基生物柴油

美国大豆基金会近期的一次全国性调查显示，美国消费者非常支持美国豆农及生物柴油。此次“全国农业形势调查”显示，８２％的消费者认为，食品价格上涨的原因在于那些石油生产国以及影响农垦及食品加工、包装、分类和运输的高价燃料，而不在于美国农民。

此次调查的其它重要结果包括：
 ７７％的消费者支持将生物柴油用作能源，以满足今后５－１０年的国内需求。
 ７４％的消费者在得知生物柴油对环境有利后更加支持生物柴油。
 ７０％的消费者在得知生物柴油是一个能够创造就业岗位的新兴绿色行业后更加支持生物柴油。

大豆蛋白可能有助于糖尿病患者的肾功能

初步研究表明，经常食用大豆蛋白似乎有助于改善II型糖尿病患者的肾功能，同时还可以略微提高患者的良性胆固醇水平。长期患有糖尿病往往会导致肾功能受损。在对１４位与糖尿病有关的老年肾病患者进行研究后发现，在他们的饮食中加入豆制品可以降低其尿液中的蛋白含量，这是衡量肾功能改善的一项指标。该研究由依利诺伊州立大学Urbana-Champaign校区食品科学系的约翰∙艾德曼（John W. Erdman Jr.）博士配合依利诺伊州Danville的老年事务Illiana保健系统共同完成。研究结果已发表于《营养杂志》。

艾德曼说，目前尚不清楚大豆蛋白为何对糖尿病患者的肾病有帮助作用，也许这与一种叫作异黄酮的类雌激素植物化合物有关。艾德曼说，虽然研究范围太小，不足以得出结论，但研究还是提供了“初步证据”，表明大豆分离蛋白可能有助于降低糖尿病患者患肾病和心脏病的风险。他希望这个发现能引发更多的研究。

美国农业部有关环保休耕计划的决定可能导致２００９年美国大豆播种面积上升

由于美国农业部决定不放弃针对退出环保休耕计划（CRP）的处罚措施，近来２００９年度的大豆及豆粕期价有所上升。近年来有关放弃处罚措施的审议时断时续，直到６月份出现过量降雨且玉米期价升至８美元时，审议才进入正式阶段。作物前景的改观及价格从历史最高点的回落似乎意味着不应放弃针对提前退出CRP的处罚措施。美国农业部指出，CRP合约下的土地本已临近解禁期。尽管合约下１９５０万英亩的土地将在今后５年陆续到期，但２００８年９月３０日到期的土地只有１２０万英亩。

美国农业部还指出，过去１９个月来，已有近３０万英亩土地未经缴纳罚款就退出CRP。由于罚款包含偿还自签约之日起的所有CRP付款，因此罚款额最低的CRP土地就是那些新近归入或重新归入CRP的土地。去年秋季有２６０万英亩土地重新归入新的CRP，今年秋季将有另外９０万英亩归入CRP合约。不过，这些土地可能不是高产土地，因为这些土地处于环境效益指数（EBI）中的前２０％，其余８０％的土地将可续约２至５年。

２００８年９月３０日到期的CRP土地只有１２０万英亩，这些土地将在今年秋季或明年春季播种，因为在２００９收获年度，人们不会过多考虑可再生燃料标准（RFS）有关增加用量的规定，即从２００８年的９０亿加仑上升到２００９年的１０５亿加仑，再到２０１０年的１２０亿加仑。由于巴西大豆播种面积很难再扩大，２００９年美国的玉米和大豆将有可能围绕播种面积展开新一轮争夺。当然，播种面积竞争的激烈程度将根据需求的变化，取决于今后１２个月美国及世界的玉米和大豆产量。无论如何，美国农业部的决定都会使世界谷物和油籽供应量基本满足２００９－２０１０年度的需求。

６月份美国生物柴油产量攀升至纪录水平

美国普查局就国内用于生产甲基酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的豆油数量公布了一个令人吃惊的增幅：６月份的用量高达１３．２万吨，明显高于５月份的１０．６万吨去年６月份的１１．６万吨。尽管６月份用于生物柴油的豆油数量仅为第三纪录高点，但用于生物柴油的动植物油总使用量却创下２１。７万吨的最高纪录，因为目前豆油约占生物柴油原料总量的约６０％，低于２００７年上半年的８５－９０％。

生物柴油产量的上升恰逢夏季典型的季节性高峰，而年初以来生物柴油利润的提高又突显了这一季节性特征。

阿根廷考虑以新税制代替原先的出口税上调计划

据阿根廷媒体报道，阿根廷政府显然已中止了谷物出口税上调计划，在近５个月的农场主抗议结束后，政府此举似乎旨在重建与农场主的关系。阿根廷农业部长卡洛斯∙切贝在８月５日晚些时候会见了四大农业团体的领导，这是７月１７日上议院投票反对政府上调谷物出口税以来双方的第一次会面。

当地媒体纷纷猜测，政府正在考虑新的出口税制，以便将大豆出口税从３５％上调至４０％，将小麦和玉米的出口税从２３％分别下调至２０％。该拟定税制的目的显然是为了降低大豆播种面积，近年来大豆播种面积的上升导致其它作物产量不断下降。政府表示，希望那些将大部分大豆用于出口的农场主多种一些玉米、小麦和其它作物，以提高国内食品供应量。

由于原油价格上涨，大豆类产品期价上升

由于原油市场看涨，大豆类产品在８月７日收盘时价格上升。８月份大豆期货价格上升＄８．２７为＄４５６．７２，９月份上升＄７．７２为＄４５３．６０，１１月份上升＄６．２５为４５５．２５；８月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１０．１４为＄３７８．３１，９月上升＄９．５９为＄３７２．２５，１０月份上升＄６．７２为＄３６５．４１；８月份豆油期货价格上升＄１３．４５为＄１１４８．３８，９月份上升＄１３．２３为＄１１５２．３４，１０月份上升＄１３．４５为＄１１５９．１８。

　
The Soy Export Weekly Update

U.S. Consumers Support Soy-Based Biodiesel

A recent nationwide survey conducted by the United Soybean Board revealed that U.S. consumers strongly back U.S. soybean farmers and biodiesel. The “National Agriculture Image Survey” indicated 82 percent of consumers agree foreign oil-producing countries and the high cost of fuel impacting farming and processing, packaging, storing and shipping food are to blame for food price increases, not U.S. farmers.

Other key findings show:
• 77 percent of consumers favor the use of biodiesel as a source of energy that can meet our needs in the next 5 to 10 years.
• 74 percent of consumers were more favorable toward biodiesel after hearing it benefits the environment.
• 70 percent of consumers were more favorable toward biodiesel after hearing it’s a new green industry that creates jobs.

Soy Protein May Help Kidney Function In Diabetics

The kidney function of people with type 2 diabetes seems to be improved by dietary soy protein, with the added benefit that their levels of “good” cholesterol also go up a bit, preliminary research suggests. Kidney function often becomes impaired with long-standing diabetes. The study of 14 older men with diabetes-related kidney disease found that adding a soy product to their diets reduced the amount of protein in their urine – an indicator of improved kidney function. The study was conducted by Dr. John W. Erdman Jr. of the of food science department at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in cooperation with the Veterans Affairs Illiana Health Care System in Danville, Illinois. The findings were reported in the Journal of Nutrition.

It’s unclear why soy protein might aid in diabetic kidney disease, but estrogen-like plant compounds called isoflavones could be involved, said Erdman. The study is too small to draw conclusions, but the results provide “initial evidence” that isolated soy protein may help reduce diabetics’ risk of kidney and heart disease, Erdman said. However, he hopes the work will spur larger studies.

USDA’s CRP Decision Could Lead To Increase In 2009 U.S. Soybean Plantings

Soybean and soybean meal futures for the 2009 crop got a boost recently from USDA’s decision to not allow acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to exit the program without penalty. Such a release has been under consideration off and on in recent years and was under serious consideration amid the excessive rains during June and the run up in corn futures to $8.00. Improving crop prospects and a retreat in prices from all-time highs appear to have tipped the balance against allowing CRP to exit the program early without penalty. USDA pointed out that land already will be exiting the program via regular maturities. While 19.5 million acres of CRP contracts will mature over the next 5 years, only 1.2 million acres are slated to expire on September 30, 2008.

USDA also pointed out that, over the last 19 months, nearly 300,000 acres have left the CRP with the payment of penalties. Since the penalties involve the repayment of all CRP payment since the start of the contract, the least costly land to take out of the CRP is land that has been recently enrolled or re-enrolled into the CRP. There were 2.6 million acres that were re-enrolled under a new contract last fall and another 0.9 million acres slated for this fall. This land, however, probably is not very productive as it is land that ranks in the top 20 percent on the Environmental Benefits Index (EBI). The other 80 percent of the land was eligible for contracts extensions of 2 to 5 years.

The expiration of just 1.2 million acres of CRP land on September 30, 2008, that will be available for seeding this fall or next spring for 2009 harvest is not much considering that the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) increases from 9.0 billion gallons in 2008 to 10.5 billion gallons in 2009 and on to 12.0 billion gallons in 2010. Given the difficulties of boosting Brazil soybean area, there is the potential for another U.S. acreage battle in 2009 between corn and soybeans. The intensity of the competition for acreage will depend, of course, on the size of U.S. and world corn and soybean crops over the next 12 months along with ongoing demand developments. In any event, USDA’s decision keeps the world’s supply of grains and oilseeds awfully close to the edge of being sufficient for 2009-10.

U.S. Biodiesel Production Jumps To A Record In June

The Census Bureau reported a surprisingly large increase in soybean oil used in U.S. methyl ester (dominantly biodiesel) production. June usage jumped to 132,000 tonnes from May’s 106,000 tonnes and last year’s 116,000 tonnes. While soybean oil usage in biodiesel production was the third highest on record, total fats and oil usage in biodiesel production was record large by a wide margin at 217,000 tonnes as soybean oil now accounts for roughly 60 percent of feedstock supply compared with 85 to 90 percent during the first half of 2007.

The increase in biodiesel production follows the typical summer seasonal pattern that perhaps was accentuated by the improvement in biodiesel margins since earlier this year.

Argentina Considering New System To Replace Planned Boost In Export Tax

Argentina’s government has apparently suspended plans to raise its grain export taxes, a move seemingly aimed at rebuilding relations with farmers after a nearly five months of protests, according to local media reports. Carlos Cheppi, agriculture secretary in the South American country, met with leaders of the four main agriculture groups late on August 5, in their first meeting since the Senate voted against the government’s increase in grain export taxes on July 17.

Speculation had been rife in the local media that the government was considering a new system of grain export taxes that would raise the duty on soybeans to 40 percent from 35 percent and lower it on wheat and corn to 20 percent and 23 percent, respectively. The proposed system is apparently designed to reduce the planting of soybeans, which have been steadily displacing the production of other crops over the past years. The government has said it wants farmers, which sells most of the soybean production for export, to increase production of corn, wheat and other crops to help boost domestic food supplies.

Soy Complex Up On Crude Oil Price Increase

The soy complex closed up on August 7 reflecting higher crude oil market. August bean futures closed up $8.27, finishing at $456.72; September gained $7.72, closing at $453.60; and November was up $6.25, ending at $455.25. August meal increased $10.14 closing at $378.31; September was $9.59 higher, finishing at $372.25; and October meal closed up $6.72, ending at $365.41. August soyoil was $13.45 higher to finish at $1148.38; September was up $13.23, closing at $1152.34; and October was $13.45 higher, closing at $1159.18.