美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年7月14日）

美国农业部公布最新世界产量报告

美国农业部７月１１日公布了７月份世界作物供需预测，其中包含美国农业部于６月３０日公布的美国播种面积和谷物库存预测。美国农业部还根据现有信息更新了其对全球产量、供应量、交易量和价格的预测。总体而言，美国农业部对全球谷物的前景描述是：供货紧张，而且如果单产下降，则紧张程度会进一步加剧。由于起步阶段的播种形势不佳，预计２００８－２００９年度玉米和大豆库存会明显下降。

由于播种面积和单产的下降部分抵消了消费量的下降，美国农业部将２００８－２００９年度的结转库存数字下调９５．３万吨，降至３８１万吨，这使得市场预测基本得到证实。播种面积的下调尚在意料之中，因为６月３０日的播种面积报告对此已有报道，但单产的下调却有些出乎意料，因为美国农业部以前只有一次（１９９３年）在７月份的供需报告中下调大豆单产。美国农业部表示，之所以将大豆单产下调０．０３吨，降至每公顷２．８０吨，是因为今年播种延迟并出现紧急情况。美国农业部将２００８－２００９年度的压榨量下调２７．２万吨，将出口量下调１３６万吨。就２００７－２００８年度的供需数字而言，美国农业部将出口量上调９５．３万吨，将豆种用量／残余用量下调同等幅度，二者相抵，因此２００７－２００８年度的期末库存为３４０万吨。

至于大豆产品，美国农业部将２００７－２００８年度３１．８万吨的豆粕消费来源从国内消费改为对外出口，将２００７－２００８年度的豆油出口量上调２．２７万吨。２００８－２００９年度豆粕和豆油产量数字的下调与豆粕国内消费量和生物柴油中豆油用量的下降基本相抵。全球的大豆供需形势基本没有变化，只是２００８－２００９年度阿根廷的大豆出口量上升１００万吨（但同时压榨量有所下降），这与美国新茬大豆出口量的下降正好相抵。美国农业部对美国老茬和新茬大豆结转库存的预测与行业预测基本一致。但是，明显可以看出，单产的下降空间已经非常小，如果目前良好的天气发生逆转，这将为有望大幅走高的市场提供进一步支持。

美国农业部在其６月３０日的播种面积报告中预计，今年的大豆播种面积将达到３０１０万公顷，高于３００６万公顷的行业平均预测。尽管预估播种面积超出预测，但美国农业部认为，由于６月份美国中西部发生洪水，收获面积只能达到２９２０万公顷，降幅高于正常情况。根据６月２３－２５日对６个洪水灾区所做的专门调查，美国农业部预计，收获面积只能达到播种面积的９６．８％，达不到５年来９８．７％的平均水平。

另外，美国农业部在６月３０日的谷物库存报告中预计，截止６月１日美国的大豆库存为１８４０万吨，比行业预测高３５．４万吨。由此看来，老茬大豆的供需状况非常紧张，因为就６月１日农场库存占大豆总库存的比例而言，今年是继１９９７年和２００４年之后第三低的一年。越来越多的证据表明，美国农业部将去年的大豆产量低估了大约２０４万吨。美国农业部在９月３０日的谷物库存报告中有机会调整２００７年度的大豆产量数字，届时可能会上调。但是，美国农业部的上调幅度可能不会像目前库存报告预示的那样达到２０４万吨，也许只能达到致使２００７－２００８年度残余使用量接近历史最低点的水平。

同时，美国普查局也基本未调整其豆油库存预测，只是将５月底的豆油库存小幅上调４５４吨，增至１３５万吨，将４月份的库存下调１８１０吨，降至１３２万吨。５月份生产甲基酯（生物柴油的主要原料）所使用的豆油数量从４月份调整后的１０．７万吨下调至５月份的１０．３万吨。与这一下调形成对比的是过去两年中同期的季节性上调。这就解释了为什么国内消费总量为什么连续第二个月保持低迷，但同时传统柴油（非生物柴油）的使用量也比去年４、５月份下降了１０％以上，这也许反映出现有的或未经估量的库存已经用完，因为普查局公布的库存仅下降到１３６万吨以下。豆油价格仍保持在足以抑制生物柴油产量的高位，从而使得豆油库存保持在相当高的水平。２００７－２００８年度豆油在生物柴油中的使用量可能不会超过上一销售年度的水平，因为用于生物柴油的豆油数量出现下降，而且生物柴油的产能利用率也在继续下降。

阿根廷议会下议院批准上调大豆出口税

阿根廷议会下议院７月５日以微弱多数票通过一项法案，支持总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯不顾农场主的强烈反对于３月份对大豆出口税实施的争议性上调。该法案经过１９个小时的争论后以１２９票对１２２票在下议院获得通过，目前法案仍需得到上议院的批准（据布宜诺斯艾利斯报纸《La Nacion》的初步统计，７２位上议院议员中有３８位支持政府）。上议院已开始对法案进行讨论。

费尔南德斯呼吁议会投票支持政府３月份实施的浮动出口税制，该税制提高了国内首要作物大豆的出口税。提出抗议的农场主要求政府恢复原有税率或修改将税率与高涨的国际谷物价格相挂钩的税制。投票进行之前，有些农场主表示，如果新通过的法案令人不满，他们将发动新一轮抗议。费尔南德斯实施新税制借助的是行政令。不过，几个月的政治紧张局势过后，她已在执政的庇隆党占多数的议会中寻得更多支持。

在为法案寻求支持的同时，政府表示将扩大中小规模农业生产者的税额减免幅度。农村地区的农场主已开始集会，他们准备研究税收变化对更小规模生产者的影响，并据此决定下一步将采取的行动。农村利益集团还就新税制向法院提出指控。尽管阿根廷农场主抗议新税制给自己造成过重经济负担，但政府仍坚持认为，新税制将带来更多收入，可用以资助重点项目并支付能源补贴。

农场主计划在上议院就总统提议的大豆及其它农产品出口税上调举行投票之前于７月１５日在布谊诺斯艾利斯举行抗议集会。当地消息人士称，如果上议院也和下议院一样批准新税制，农场主可能会再次罢工。

由于阿根廷可能再次出现农场主罢工，大豆类产品期价上升

由于大豆市场的坚挺继续面临玉米和小麦市场的疲软，大豆类产品在７月１０日收盘时价格上升。产生支持力量的因素还包括本周阿根廷农场主可能再次举行的罢工。７月份大豆期货价格上升＄１１．５７为＄５９１．３８，８月份上升＄１０．４７为＄５８８．０８，９月份上升＄１０．３８为５８５．３２；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１１．３５为＄４９１．４１，８月＄上升９．７０为＄４８３．６９，９月份上升＄１０．１４为＄４７９．７２；７月份豆油期货价格上升＄１４．７７为＄１４２０．８６，８月份上升＄１４．７７为＄１４２４．６１，９月份上升＄１４．５５为＄１４３２．３３。　
　
The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA World Production Report Recap

USDA released its July WASDE on July 11, incorporating the U.S. planted acreage and grain stocks estimates released on June 30. USDA also updated its view of world production, supply, trade and prices based on available information. In general, USDA portrayed the world grain outlook as one of tight supplies, vulnerable to any further yield setback. Corn and soybean stocks are expected to decline notable through 2008-09 due to the poor planting start.

The market’s expectations were largely realized with USDA reducing its 2008-09 carryout by 953,000 tonnes to 3.81 million tonnes due to lower acreage and yield that was partially offset by usage cuts. The reduction in acreage was expected as it was previously released in the June 30 Acreage report, but the yield cut was a bit of a surprise as USDA has reduced its soybean yield only once before (1993) in its July supply and demand report. USDA cited the delayed crop planting and emergence as the reasons for reducing its yield by 0.03 tonnes per hectare to 2.80 tonnes per hectare. USDA cut the 2008-09 crush by 272,000 tonnes and exports by 1.36 million tonnes. As far the 2007-08 soybean balance sheet was concerned, USDA boosted exports by 953,000 tonnes and offset that with a commensurate reduction in seed/residual use, leaving 2007-08 ending stocks at 3.4 million tonnes.

On the product side, USDA shifted 318,000 tonnes of 2007-08 soybean meal usage from domestic use to exports and boosted 2007-08 soybean oil exports by 22,700 tonnes. Lower soybean meal and oil production for 2008-09 was largely offset by lower domestic use of soybean meal and lower methyl ester usage of soybean oil. World soybean balance sheets were little changed other than a 1-million-tonne increase in 2008-09 Argentine soybean exports (at the expense of a lower crush) that offset the reduction in new-crop U.S. soybean exports. USDA’s old- and new-crop U.S. soybean carryouts were in line with what the trade was anticipating. However, it does highlight that there is little, if any, room for a yield shortfall, which should provide ongoing support for the market with the risk of much upside volatility if the current favorable weather pattern turns adverse.

USDA estimated this year’s soybean planted area at 30.10 million hectares in its June 30 Acreage report, which was above the average trade estimate of 30.06 million hectares. Though the planted area estimate exceeded expectations, USDA assumed a larger-than-normal abandonment in projecting harvested area at 29.2 million hectares due to flooding that occurred in the Midwest during June. USDA’s projection for harvested area as a percent of planted area at 96.8 percent rather than the 5-year average of 98.7 percent resulted from a special survey effort made June 23-25 in six states affected by the flooding.

Also, in the June 30 Grain Stocks report USDA estimated June 1 U.S. soybean stocks at 18.4 million tonnes. That was 354,000 tonnes more than trade expectations. This leaves the old-crop balance very tight with June 1 on-farm stocks the third lowest percentage of total soybean stocks after 1977 and 2004. The evidence grows more solid that USDA understated last year’s soybean crop by approximately 2.04 million tonnes. USDA will have the opportunity to revise the 2007 soybean crop in the September 30 Grain Stocks report and likely will increase it. However, USDA probably will not go up the full 2.04 million tonnes that stocks reports to date suggest and likely will minimize the extent that the crop increased by allowing 2007-08 residual use to be near historically low levels.

Meanwhile, last week the U.S. Census Bureau barely revised its soybean oil stocks estimates this morning, nudging end-of-May soybean oil stocks up by just 454 tonnes to 1.35 million tonnes and reducing April stocks by 1,810 tonnes to 1.32 million tonnes. Soybean oil used in methyl ester (dominantly biodiesel) production dropped to 103,000 tonnes during May from a revised 107,000 tonnes during April. This decline was in contrast to seasonal increases the previous two years. This helps explain why overall domestic use was anemic for the second consecutive month, but traditional (non-biodiesel) usage was more than 10 percent below the previous year during both April and May, perhaps reflecting a depletion of pipeline or unmeasured stocks as Census-reported stocks drop just below 1.36 million tonnes. Soybean oil prices have been sustained at a high enough level to rein in biodiesel production so that soybean oil stocks are maintained at fairly high levels. Biodiesel usage of soybean oil during 2007-08 may be no bigger than the previous marketing year as soybean oil comprises a smaller share of biodiesel feedstock supplies and biodiesel capacity utilization continues to decline.

Increase In Soybean Export Tax Approved By Argentina’s Lower House Of Congress

Argentina’s lower house of Congress narrowly approved a bill on July 5 backing a controversial rise in soybean export taxes that President Cristina Fernandez imposed in March over stiff opposition from farmers. The bill, which still needs Senate approval, passed 129 to 122 in the lower house after 19 hours of debate (a preliminary count by the Buenos Aires newspaper La Nacion had 38 out of 72 senators backing the government). The Senate now starts discussions on the bill.

Fernandez asked Congress to vote on the sliding-scale export tax system her government put in place in March that raised levies on shipments of soybeans – the country’s top crop. Protesting farmers have demanded the government roll back or modify the tax measures, which link levies to soaring global grain prices. Before the vote, some farmers threatened to launch a new round of protests if they were unhappy with the bill that was passed. Fernandez used an executive order to implement the tax. But after months of political tensions, she sought broader support in Congress, where the ruling Peronist Party holds a majority.

Moving to secure support for the bill, the government said it would expand tax exemptions and rebates for small- and medium-sized agricultural producers. Farmers in rural areas gathered to study the impact of the changes on smaller producers and determine what steps to take. Rural interests also are challenging the measure in courts. While Argentine farmers say the tax places an excessive economic burden on them, the government maintains the tax will provide additional revenue to fund vital programs and pay for energy subsidies.

Farmers plan a protest rally in Buenos Aires on July 15 prior to a Senate vote on the President’s proposed tax hike on soybean and other exports. Local sources report that if the Senate follows the House and approves those taxes, farmers may resume their strike.

Soy Complex Higher As Resumption Of Farmer Strike In Argentina Looms

The soy complex closed higher on July 10 as the strength in the soybean market continues to be at odds with weakness in wheat and corn. Some support also came from the possibility of a resumption of the strike by farmers in Argentina this week. July bean futures closed up $11.57, finishing at $591.38; August gained $10.47, closing at $588.08; and September was up $10.38, ending at $585.32. July meal increased $11.35 closing at $491.41; August was $9.70 higher, finishing at $483.69; and September meal closed up $10.14, ending at $479.72. July soyoil increased $14.77 to finish at $1420.86; August was up $14.77, closing at $1424.61; and September was $14.55 higher, closing at $1432.33.