美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年4月28日）

农业法案达成协议

参众两院与会代表已就新的农业法案达成协议。根据新达成的农业法案（ＨＲ２４１９），今后１０年的划拨款项将达到约５７００亿美元，其中包含用于农业税减免、灾难援助计划及食品券计划的新增拨款。

这些计划中的一部分资金将来自两方面：一，直接付款（农场主根据作物播种面积及所播作物种类而得到的一种补贴）中削减的４亿美元；二，４０亿美元灾难援助款中削减的２．５亿美元。

不过新增开支的最主要来源将来自海关使用费（布什政府赞许的一种筹款方式）。

营养计划的拨款数额增幅明显。食品券及食品援助计划将得到约１０２亿美元的拨款，高于最初拟定的９５亿美元。

立法机构仍在讨论如何阻止最富有的农场主获得政府补贴。与会代表们表示，将在４月２９完成一份供参众两院审议的会议报告。

布什总统４月２５日签署了议会４月２４日通过的一项法令，决定短期延长当前农业法。

随着阿根廷出口量的下降，美国出口量开始上升

由于阿根廷农场主为抗议政府实行新税制而举行罢工，阿根廷的大豆出口自３月下旬以来开始放慢，美国和巴西的出口进度因此有所加快。虽然罢工自４月初起暂时进入停息状态，但农场主与政府之间的谈判仍未取得明显进展。最近的数据显示，阿根廷４月份的大豆出口似乎能达到１５０万吨左右，不过最终公布的数字可能会更低。目前，由于美国大豆出口量达到记录最高水平，从而其季度性下降的现象不如往年明显，即便如此，阿根廷１５０万的月度出口量仍高于去年同期水平，只是低于过去四年来的同期平均水平而已。

阿根廷出口进度的下降给美国和巴西带来了更多出口业务。通常情况下，美国对中国的出口订货总量进入３月份后会呈下降趋势，但今年不同，在过去的４周里（截止４月１８日），出口量反而上升了１１４万吨（４２００万蒲式耳），而此前３周的出口总量仅为１６．５万吨（６００万蒲式耳）。

今年美国出口量的潜在上升将会耗尽２００７－２００８年度供应量中的额外增量，之所以有额外增量是因为美国农业部在３月１日的库存报告中说去年的大豆产量被低估。

巴西在３月份的大豆出口量为３２０万吨，创历年同期最高纪录，４月份更是有望达到约４００万吨，这一数字将仅次于２００６年４月份创下的最高纪录。值得一提的是，出口量的这一增长发生在主要港口巴拉那的工人威胁要放慢装卸进度且一些海关官员正在举行罢工的背景之下。

阿根廷以《供应法》回击农场领导；罢工再次临近

随着阿根廷政府与农场主的谈判日趋紧张，金融市场有关农场主可能再次罢工的预期越来越普遍，鉴于此，阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯昨天呼吁采取冷静态度。路透社报道说，农场主们对谈判未取得进展感到不满，但费尔南德斯说，谈判仍在继续。

同时，阿根廷政府还暗示要对农场主实施严厉的《供应法》，并召集全国农场团体领导为国内商务部长盖勒默·莫兰诺提出的控诉作证。

《供应法》规定，如果供货商没有向国内市场提供实质性商品，他们将面临罚款、监禁、财产没收等处罚。据道琼斯通迅社报道，为避免上个月农场罢工重演而进行的谈判本已有些紧张，《供应法》的提出标志着形势进一步恶化。

FO Licht说：全球生物柴油产量将对大豆价格起到支持作用

据商品分析机构FO Licht的一份报告，全球生物柴油产量的上升将对大豆价格起到支持作用，但生物柴油对棕榈油的需求可能会低于预计。中国和印度的植物油和油籽需求一直在上升。“伴随这种趋势的是，南美用于生物柴油的豆油消费量在上升，欧洲的饲料供应量不足，”该机构说。“结果很可能是，价格进一步坚挺，”该机构补充说。

FO Licht说，随着棕榈油价格的上涨，棕榈油作为生物柴油原料的吸引力已开始下降。“目前东南亚生物柴油行业仍计划扩大规模，而目前的产能却出现过剩，因此以棕榈油原料的生物柴油前景不容乐观，除非国内（亚洲）市场好转且价格下跌，”该机构说。

在欧洲，由于担心棕榈树种植园的扩大会导致热带雨林被砍伐，人们强烈反对使用棕榈油生产生物柴油。“欧洲的生物柴油产能已经出现过剩，这使得东南亚棕榈油的出口前景趋于暗淡，” FO Licht说。“因此目前看来，用于燃料的棕榈油将远远低于预计。”

布什批准短暂延期２００２年农业法案

国会已同意将２００２年农业法案再次延期一周，将该法案的效力延至５月２日。白宫已确认布什总统签署了延期法令。

法案审议代表们同意用海关使用费来补充预算基数以上１００亿美元的农业法案额外开支。美国农业部副部长查克·克纳说，布什政府会同意将海关使用费定义为“负支出”。

税收优惠已基本成为一个主导性问题，因为农业法案审议代表们已同意通过改变目前的农业税来提供１４－１６亿美元甚至更多的税收优惠。

税收优惠措施包括旨在鼓励纤维乙醇生产的税收减免、保护地役权延期、社会保障款及残疾人福利金领取者免交环保项目付款中的自雇税等。补充款项之一将来自乙醇混合物减税幅度的下降，可能会从目前的５１美分中减少６美分。

由于美元走强引发投机性销售，大豆类产品期价下跌

由于美元走强导致各类商品出现投机性销售，４月２４日收盘时大豆类产品期价下跌。在豆油期价未发生变化的情况下，大豆期价的下跌在不同月份产品之间分布得比较均匀。大豆类产品期价受外部市场及投机商的影响，仍有可能进入疲软周期，但反弹速度往往比较快。只要大盘走势仍具有支持力，目前的态势可能会持续下去，直至阿根廷局势的不确定性得到解决且市场对美国玉米／大豆播种面积的最终比例有了更好的判断为止。５月份大豆期货价格下跌＄８．５４为＄４９５．５８，７月份下跌＄９．００为＄５００．０８，８月份下跌＄９．３７为４９２．７３；５月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄５．９５为＄３８１．６２，７月下跌＄６．８３为＄３８５．５８，８月份下跌＄７．３９为＄３７６．７７；５月份豆油期货价格下跌＄２３．３７为＄１３２６．５１，７月份下跌＄２４．０３为＄１３４１．９４，８月份下跌＄２４．２５为＄１３４８．１１。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Deal Struck On Farm Bill

House and Senate conferees have struck a deal on the new farm bill. The measure (HR 2419) will be worth about $570 billion over 10 years, with new funding for farm-related tax credits, a disaster aid program, and new funding for food stamps.

Those programs will in part be paid for by a $400 million cut to direct payments — a subsidy farmers get based on their acreage and the type of crop they grow — and a $250 million cut to a $4 billion disaster-aid fund.

But most of the offsets for the extra spending will come from extending customs user fees, a revenue-raiser favored by the Bush administration.

Nutrition programs would get a significant boost. Food stamps and food aid would top out at about $10.2 billion, up from an initial proposal of $9.5 billion.

Lawmakers will continue their discussions about preventing very wealthy farmers from collecting government subsidies. The conferees say they will have a conference report ready for House and Senate floor action by April 29.

President Bush on April 25 signed the latest short-term extension of current farm law, which Congress cleared April 24.

U.S. Exports Increase Amid Slow Argentine Shipments

The slowdown in Argentina’s soybean exports since late March due to the farmer strike in protest of the government’s new export tax regime is giving both United States and Brazil exports a boost. The strike has been temporarily suspended since early April, but negotiations between farmers and the government are not making much progress. Based on recent data, Argentina’s soybean exports look to be about 1.5 million tonnes during April and that could be lower once the final numbers are released. However, that monthly total would be above last year’s, when the seasonal decline in U.S. exports was less pronounced than normal because of record large U.S. supplies, but down from the previous 4 years.

Argentina’s slower shipping pace has shifted additional export business to the United States and Brazil. The accumulation of U.S. export commitments to China normally begin slowing down by March, but have risen by 1.14 million tonnes (42 million bushels) over the past 4 weeks (through April 18) after totaling just 165,000 tonnes (6 million bushels) during the 3 weeks prior.

The expected boost to this year’s U.S. export program likely will eliminate any cushion in 2007-08 soybean supplies that was gained when USDA’s March 1 stocks report indicated that last year’s crop was understated.

Brazil’s soybean exports of 3.2 million tonnes in March were record large for that month and look to be about 4.0 million in April, which would trail only April 2006 as the largest level for any month. This is occurring despite reports of workers at a major shipping port (Paranagua) threatening to slow down and some customs officials going on strike.

Argentina Hits Farm Leaders with Supply Law; Strike Nears

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez yesterday called for calm as talks with farm leaders grew increasingly tense, raising expectations in financial markets that farmers might go back on strike. Reuters reports that farmers have complained of a lack of progress in the negotiations, but Fernandez said discussions should continue.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s government also carried through with its threat to apply the harsh Supply Law to farmers, summoning leaders of the country’s farm groups to testify in a complaint filed by Interior Commerce Secretary Guillermo Moreno.

The Supply Law would allow fines, imprisonment and confiscation of property if providers fail to supply the domestic market with essential goods. Dow Jones Newswires reports that the move marks a sharp downturn in already tense negotiations to avoid a repeat of last month’s crippling farm strike.

FO Licht: Global Biodiesel Production To Support Soybean Prices

Expanding global biodiesel production will support soybean prices but palm oil demand for biodiesel output is likely to be less than anticipated, according to a report from commodities analyst FO Licht. Vegetable oil and oilseed demand in China and India is rising. “These developments will coincide with growing soyoil consumption for biodiesel in South America and limited feedstock supply in Europe,” the company said. “The result may well be firmer prices,” it added.

Rising palm prices have made palm oil less attractive as a biodiesel feedstock, FO Licht observed. “Given the planned expansion of the south east Asian biodiesel industry and its current overcapacities, the outlook for palm oil-based biodiesel does not look very promising, unless a domestic (Asian) market emerges and prices fall,” it said.

In Europe, strong opposition is already visible to using palm oil for biodiesel because of concerns that tropical rain forests are being cut down to expand palm tree plantations. “There are already biodiesel overcapacities in Europe which are reducing export prospects for Southeast Asian producers,” the report said. “The expectation is therefore that palm oil consumption for fuel will remain far less than anticipated.”

Bush Approves Another Short-term ‘02 Farm Bill Extension

Congress has approved another one-week extension to the 2002 farm bill, which would extend its authority through May 2. The White House confirmed President Bush signed the extension into law.

Negotiators agreed to offset the entire $10 billion in additional farm bill spending above the budget baseline via Customs user fees. USDA Deputy Secretary Chuck Conner said the Bush administration would accept the definition of Customs user fees as a “negative outlay.”

Tax benefits have become basically a leadership issue, as farm bill negotiators have agreed on at least $1.4 billion and possibly $1.6 billion –– or more –– in tax benefits or more, to be offset by changes in current agricultural taxes.

The tax benefits package includes tax breaks to encourage cellulosic ethanol production, an extension of conservation easements, and language to exempt Social Security and disability payment recipients from paying self-employment taxes on conservation reserve program payments. One of the offsets will be a reduction in the ethanol blender credit, from the current 51-cent payment, perhaps a six-cent cut.

Soy Complex Lower As Stronger Dollar Leads To Speculative Selling

The soy complex closed lower on April 24 reflecting strength in the U.S. dollar triggered a round of speculative selling across commodities. The setback in soybean futures was evenly split between the products as the oil share was unchanged. Soybean complex futures remain at risk to periods of weakness associated with the influence of outside markets and speculative traders, but often rebound rather quickly. This likely will continue to be the case as long as the fundamentals remain supportive, and they should until the uncertainty about the Argentine situation is resolved and the market has a better handle on what the final corn/soybean acreage mix will be in the United States. May bean futures closed down $8.54, finishing at $495.58; July lost $9.00, closing at $500.08; and August was down $9.37, ending at $492.73. May meal decreased $5.95 closing at $381.62; July was $6.83 lower, finishing at $385.58; and August meal closed down $7.39, ending at $376.77. May soyoil decreased $23.37 to finish at $1326.51; July was down $24.03, closing at $1341.94; and August was $24.25 lower, closing at $1348.11.