美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年4月21日）

阿根廷农场主罢工导致美国出口量上升

美国农业部报告中截止３月１日的大豆库存增量似乎因近来出口猛增而被基本耗尽。在４月３日结束的那一周里，大豆出口销售量达到了创纪录的５３．８万吨。随后，美国农业部还宣布，另有２４万吨将销往中国。以往在销售年度的这一时段，美国对中国的大豆销售量基本为零。

由于阿根廷为期３周的农场主罢工已造成压榨厂及出口仓库货源中断，并进而导致大豆出口陷于停顿，美国的出口订货因此而呈迅猛上升之势，预计发货将在大约１个月之后开始。

分析机构预计未来几周美国豆油出口将保持旺盛

据油籽分析机构油世界的预测，由于作为竞争对手的南美遭受罢工困扰，未来几周美国豆油出口可能会保持旺盛。油世界说，尽管阿根廷的罢工已停止了３０天，但阿根廷大豆、豆油及豆粕的出口进度在４月份的前半个月仍处于滞后状态。油世界说，“巴西出口进度也出现滞后，因为海关工作人员及港口工人举行了罢工，且玻利维亚实施了豆油及豆粕出口禁令。”

油世界解释说，在２００８年２－３月期间，美国豆油出口量猛增到１０年来的同期最高水平（４７万吨），远远高于去年同期的１７．４万吨，预计近期内出口量可能会保持旺盛势头。油世界说，“另外，由于南美出口受到罢工影响，近几周来美国的大豆及豆粕出口也高于预计。”

２月份美国生物柴油出口量再次达到高水平

普查局上周报告说，１月份用于生产甲基酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的动植物油数量超过１２月份，而２月份更是上升到了仅次于去年８月最高纪录的水平。但是，由于生物柴油利润微薄（生物柴油因消费税优惠而享有的相对于传统柴油的价格优势还不到１美元），美国生产的生物柴油中有很大一部分被用于出口。从１１月份到２月份，美国生物柴油的净出口量占到了国内生产总量的４５％。目前越来越多的生物柴油正在以美国港口为转运港，并且为了享受每加仑１美元的补贴，这些生物柴油在转口前都要混入少量传统柴油。转出口的生物柴油主要有两个来源，一是东南亚棕榈油加工的生物柴油，二是阿根廷豆油加工的生物柴油。生物柴油的主要出口市场仍然是欧盟２７国，欧盟２７国的柴油价格比美国还高，特别是在目前美元疲软、欧元坚挺、美国国内利润微薄的情况下。

中国政府预计大豆进口将上升

据中国一家国有研究机构４月１８日所做的调查，由于担心价格进一步上涨，压榨企业将在未来一周大量采购大豆，中国大豆交易商据此预计，市场将呈看涨态势。中国粮油信息中心说，中国对进口大豆的需求还将上升。

粮油信息中心说，国际豆油与国内豆油之间的明显价差将推动国内价格及市场需求上升，因为压榨企业认为价格不太可能下跌，且商家也需要补充库存。粮油信息中心指出，人们对豆油价格的预期已从看跌转向持中。

另据相关消息，中国最高规划机构的一位高层官员说，由于产量已超过需求，中国正在制定限制国内大豆压榨厂规模的措施。中国发改委官员贺艳丽说，政府鼓励国内企业通过并购小型企业来扩大规模。“原则上，今后几年我们将不再批准新建压榨厂或扩大现有压榨厂的规模，”她说。“压榨能力将被控制在合理的水平上。”

她还说，到２０１０年中国的大豆年需求量将是５０００万吨，目前中国的年压榨能力为８４００万吨，但实际开工率仅为５０％左右。预计大豆进口量还将上升，国内油籽播种面积也将上升，到２０１０年中国的食用油年需求量预计将达到２６００万吨。

参议院批准将２００２年农业法案延期一周

４月１７日参议院以口头表决的形式批准将２００２年农业法案延期一周。此次延期旨在为那些协商新法案的立法委员留出更多协商时间，此前一天参议院曾做出了同样表决。接下来，延期决议将交由白宫审议，目前尚无迹象表明布什总统会批准还是否决这项决议。

延期将使现有农业法案的效力延长至４月２５日。如果总统签署延期决议，国会将被迫在下周完成法案工作。参议员拉里∙克来格（Larry Craig）（爱达荷州共和党人）说，协商的结果有两种可能性，一是在一周内就新法案达成一致，二是将现有农业政策延长至少１年。

随着巩固４月份收益的市场行为，大豆类产品期价有升有降

４月１７日收盘时大豆类产品期价有升有降，其中大豆和豆粕期价上升，豆油期价下降。本月大豆市场的反弹之势正在得到加强。尽管处于当前高位的大豆类产品期价很容易发生波动，但支持这一价位的因素似乎仍然存在，因为达到纪录高点的玉米价格可能会导致豆田改种玉米，从而使２００８－２００９年度原本充裕的结转库存变得紧张。阿根廷出口税的提高使人们怀疑阿根廷今后能否继续扩大大豆播种面积，而阿根廷大豆面积的扩大是过去５年来世界大豆产量上升的重要因素之一。由于大豆出口销售量及大豆压榨量没有出现季节性下降，２００７－２００８年度美国大豆的结转库存可能会下降至最低水平。另外，美国油籽加工者协会上周公布的３月份压榨量为４０３万吨，比行业预计低大约８．１６万吨。尽管３月份的压榨量低于预计，但日均压榨率仍与２月份相同。过去１０年中，只有一年（２００７年）出现过３月份日均压榨率低于２月份的情况。５月份大豆期货价格上升＄２．１１为＄４９６．２２，７月份上升＄２．０２为＄５０２．１０，８月份上升＄２．２０为４９８．２４；５月份豆粕期货价格上升＄５．５１为＄３８０．２９，７月上升＄５．７３为＄３８５．２１，８月份上升＄６．６１为＄３８０．２９；５月份豆油期货价格下跌＄１５．４３为＄１３４１．０６，７月份下跌＄１５．４３为＄１３５７．５９，８月份下跌＄１５．４３为＄１３６４．６５。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Argentine Farmer Strike Leads To Boost In U.S. Exports

It appears that whatever additional stocks were found in USDA’s March 1 have been, in large part, depleted by a recent flurry of U.S. export sales of soybeans. Soybean export sales for the week ending April 3 were a record 538,000 tonnes for that week and another 240,000 tonnes of sales to China subsequently were announced via USDA’s reporting system. U.S. export sales of soybeans to China usually are almost nil at this point in the marketing year.

However, with Argentina’s soybean exports impeded by a 3-week farmer strike that depleted soybean supplies at crushing and export facilities, the United States has picked up a considerable amount of export business that presumably will be shipped over the next month or so.

Analyst Expects U.S. Soyoil Exports To Remain High For The Coming Weeks

U.S. soyoil exports are likely to remain high in coming weeks as problems hit rival South American suppliers, oilseeds analysts Oil World has forecast. The analyst said that although the Argentine farm strike has been interrupted for 30 days, Argentine exports of soybeans, soyoil and meal are still behind schedule in the first half of April. “There are also export delays in Brazil due to strike action by customs officers and port workers and an export ban for soyoil and meal in Bolivia,” it said.

Oil World explained that U.S. exports of soyoil have increased sharply to a 10-year high of 470,000 tonnes between January and March 2008, compared with just 174,000 tonnes a year earlier and it estimates that exports are likely to remain high in the near term. “Also, U.S. exports of soybeans and soymeal have been higher than expected in recent weeks as a result of the South American export problems,” it said.

U.S. Biodiesel Exports Large Again In February

The Census Bureau reported last week that usage of fats and oils in methyl ester (mainly biodiesel) production increased in January from December and rose further in February to a level that trailed only the record level from last August. However, a large share of U.S. biodiesel continues to be produced for the export market as biodiesel margins are minimal in areas where biodiesel is priced no more than $1 excise tax credit above conventional diesel. From November through February, U.S. net exports of biodiesel represented 45 percent of domestic production. Increasing quantities of biodiesel are coming through U.S. ports and being blended with a small amount of conventional diesel to capture the $1 per gallon subsidy before being re-exported. Most of that has been either biodiesel made in Southeast Asia from palm oil or Argentine biodiesel made from soybean oil. The dominant export market for biodiesel continues to the EU- 27, where diesel prices are higher than those in the United States, especially given the weak dollar and strong Euro, and domestic producers who are facing poor profitability.

Government Of China Expects Soybean Imports To Rise

China’s soybean traders expect the market to turn bullish as crushers start active purchases in the coming week, spurred by fears that prices will rise further, according to a survey by a state run think tank on April 18. Demand for soybean imports also will increase, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) said.

A wide gap between international and Chinese soyoil prices will drive up the domestic price and also market demand as crushers see less possibility of a price drop and merchants need to replenish stocks, the CNGOIC said. Expectations for soyoil prices have turned from bearish to neutral, CNGOIC noted.

In related news, China is working on measures to limit the expansion of its soybean crushing plants as output is already exceeding demand, according to a senior official at the country’s top planning agency. He Yanli, deputy division head for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said the government would encourage domestic firms to expand by taking over smaller rivals. “In principle, we will not approve the building of new crushers or the expansion by existing firms in the years to come,” she said. “The crushing capacity will be controlled at a reasonable level.”

She added that China would need 50 million tonnes of soybeans annually by 2010 and the country was now operating at around half its annual crush capacity of 84 million tonnes. Soybean imports are also expected to grow, as will domestic acreage of the oilseed, and the country’s yearly requirements for edible oils are expected to hit 26 million tonnes by 2010.

Senate Approves One-Week Extension of 2002 Farm Bill

The Senate on April 17 approved by voice vote a measure that would extend the 2002 farm Act by one week. The action, which is intended to give lawmakers negotiating the next farm bill additional time to complete their work, followed by one day an identical vote by the House. The bill next goes to the White House where there has been no clear signal whether President Bush will sign or veto the measure.

The extension would allow provisions of that law to remain operational through April 25. If the president signs the extension, it would put significant pressure on Congress to complete the bill by next week. Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) says negotiators should either agree on a new farm bill within the next week or extend current farm policy for no less than one year.

Soy Complex Mixed As Market Consolidates April’s Gains

The soy complex closed mixed on April 17 with soybeans and meal higher, but soyoil declining slightly. The soybean market is consolidating the gains of this month’s rally. While soybean complex futures are subject to considerable volatility at these lofty levels, there appears to be support for these levels from record high corn prices that likely is shifting acres away from soybeans to corn that threatens to tighten up a comfortable 2008-09 carryout. Elevated Argentine export taxes call into question Argentina’s ability to sustain its ongoing acreage expansion that has accounted from most of the world’s soybean production growth over the last 5 years. The lack of a seasonal decline in soybean export sales and the soybean crush point to a tight 2007-08 U.S. soybean carryout that drops to minimal levels. Meanwhile, the NOPA crush for March released last week was 4.03 million tonnes, about 81,600 tonnes below the trade’s expectations. Although the March crush was below expectations, the daily crush rate was equal to that of February. Over the last 10 years, there was only 1 year (2007) when the daily crush did not decline from February to March. May bean futures closed up $2.11, finishing at $496.22; July gained $2.02, closing at $502.10; and August was up $2.20, ending at $498.24. May meal increased $5.51 closing at $380.29; July was $5.73 higher, finishing at $385.21; and August meal closed up $6.61, ending at $380.29. May soyoil decreased $15.43 to finish at $1341.06; July was down $15.43, closing at $1357.59; and August was $15.43 lower, closing at $1364.65.