美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年4月7日）

美国农业部公布最新播种面积预测

美国农业部３月３１日公布的作物面积和库存预测被公认是全年最重要的报告之一，它能在年度初期就本年度美国农民的意向播种面积及美国谷物的消费走势提供指导和参考。根据该报告，大豆的意向播种面积及库存均超过预计，这表明在本年度今后的时间里，供应形势将远比原先的预计宽松。预估库存为３８９０万吨，明显低于上一年度，但比报告公布前的预测高出２０４万吨，这说明２００７年的产量被大大低估了。报告预计２００８年的大豆播种面积将达到３０３０万公顷，只要天气正常，这将足以满足大豆的产量需求。至少就本年度而言，吸引巴西播种更多大豆的任务已经减轻了。

从美国农业部公布的３０３０万公顷的大豆意向播种面积来看，２００８－２００９年度的供需形势将不再紧张。但是，分析人士认为，大豆播种面积达到３０３０万公顷是相当困难的，因为根据美国农业部于3月份前两周做的播种面积调查，玉米与大豆相比，在净收益率方面始终占有明显优势。２００９年期价几乎跌破１０美元，这不禁使人怀疑巴西是否会扩大大豆播种面积，迹象表明巴西大豆播种面积可能会减少。目前的形势可能会限制２００８－２００９年度美国大豆出口的影响，但却有利于２００９－２０１０年度美国大豆的出口前景。

大豆类产品期价的下跌有望使低谷中的生物柴油利润得到回升。即使目前豆油期价处于每磅５２美分的盈亏平衡点，享受税收优惠的生物柴油相对于普通柴油仍显得有一定获利空间。近几周来，生物柴油生产商能够按相对于普通柴油的溢价销售生物柴油，因此他们处于赢利状态。

巴西大豆播种面积扩大及生物柴油产量上升这两种可能性为更长期限内大豆类产品期价走势奠定了基调。但是在短期内，由于投机性销售仍在继续，大豆类产品期价可能会低于应有水平。

阿根廷农场罢工告一段落；巴拉那港罢工使大豆运输中断

阿根廷历史上持续时间最长的罢工于４月２日结束，不过农场主们威胁说，中左政府的税率上调措施使他们的利润降到了难以维生的地步，如果政府在税率方面不做出让步，他们将在３０天内再次封锁公路。内政部长弗洛伦西奥•兰达索（Florencio Randazzo）说，政府有意与那些罢工中封锁公路并导致供货短缺的农场主谈判。但谈判并没有随后开始。

由于阿根廷农场主罢工使过去几周内谷物和油籽无法运抵出口商和加工商，美国的出口形势在本销售年度下半年开始有所好转。昨天有消息称，阿根廷的罢工将暂停３０天，但由于阿根廷的出口渠道还需要一段时间才能恢复正常，因此一些出口业务可能会从阿根廷转向美国。另有消息称，巴西某主要港口的一些工人于４月２日举行了罢工，这对大豆期货而言是利好消息，但４月３日他们就已重返工作岗位。

另外，据当地媒体报道，巴西北部港口巴拉那４月２日举行的罢工使港口的大豆出口运输陷于瘫痪。港务局说，举行罢工的港口工人要求提高工资。巴拉那是巴西主要的大豆出口港，承担着巴西６０％（即１１００万吨）的大豆出口。

罢工造成了港口装卸作业停顿，因为港口只有两辆卡车在卸货，而其余卡车则停在港区以外排队等候。正常情况下，港口卸货速度为每小时７０辆卡车。

港口经营者说，用于将大豆从仓库传输至船舶的４个大型传输带也停止了运转。罢工还延误了巴拉那港其它船舶的入港时间。

Cargonave的Victor Manuel Simoes Pinto补充说，最近巴西港口工人联盟在一份单独的报告中宣布，联盟计划于４月１４日在几个港口发动２４小时的罢工，以抗议伊塔雅伊港码头雇用联盟以外的劳工。农业商检人员也威胁说要在４月份举行罢工，但具体日期还没有确认。商检人员的罢工会影响那些需获农业部卫生批准的农产品的进出口进度。巴西港口海关机构的罢工已持续了一个多星期，但是他们的罢工没有影响巴西港口的大豆或谷物出口进度。

环保团体认为禁止采购亚马逊大豆的措施取得成效

环保主义者及一家行业团体表示，禁止采购亚马逊新毁林地所产大豆的措施似乎正在阻止毁林造田的步伐。绿色和平组织和巴西植物油行业协会说，从２００６年８月至２００７年８月，在１９３个面积达２５０英亩或以上的注册毁林区，没有发现任何新的大豆种植园。嘉吉(Cargill)、Archer Daniels Midland Co、 邦基（Bunge Ltd）以及法国的Dreyfus和巴西的Amaggi等公司均参与了禁止采购的行列。

“事实毫无疑问地表明，禁止采购（该地区）大豆的措施得到了有效执行，这是个好消息，”绿色和平组织亚马逊活动协调员保罗∙艾德瑞尔（Paulo Adario）说。“但是，国际市场上大豆价格居高不下，使得生产者扩大播种面积的欲望越来越强烈，同时也给那些参与禁止采购的公司带来了严峻挑战。

投机性购买使得大豆类产品期价上升

在投机性购买的带动下，大豆类产品在４月３日收盘时价格上升。投机性购买由两方面原因引起，一是人们认为在基金清仓引发的大豆行情极度下挫过后，大豆价格相对于玉米已经过低，二是美国农业部在３月３１日报告中对３月１日大豆库存及美国大豆潜在播种面积的评估均高于市场预计。５月份大豆期货价格上升＄５．１４为＄４６１．８６，７月份上升＄６．０６，为＄４６８．８４，８月份上升＄５．８８为４６５．９１；５月份豆粕期货价格上升＄２．４３为＄３６７．２９，７月上升＄１．８７为＄３７０．５９，８月份上升＄２．７６为＄３６５．４１；５月份豆油期货价格上升＄７．０５为＄１２２０．６９，７月份上升＄６．６１为＄１２３７．２２，８月份上升＄４．６３为＄１２４１．８５。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA Prospective Plantings Recap

USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings and Stocks reports are arguably among the most important of the year, providing early season guidance to U.S. farmers’ thoughts on acreage to be planted in 2008, and clues to ongoing rates of U.S. grain usage. soybean acreage intentions and stocks both exceeded expectations and implied a much more relaxed supply outlook for the remainder of this season and that ahead. The stocks estimate of 38.9 million tonnes is indeed below last year, but is 2.04 million tonnes above the pre-report estimate and suggests that the 2007 crop was greatly underestimated. The large 30.3 million hectares planting estimate for 2008 will provide ample production to meet soybean needs, with average weather. And, the task of attracting new Brazilian soy acres is relieved, for this year at least.

The adoption of USDA’s soybean planting intention of 30.3 million hectares results in a 2008-09 balance sheet that is no longer tight. However, analysts believe that soybean plantings will be hard-pressed to reach 30.3 million hectares given the huge gains in corn’s net revenue advantage over soybeans since the first two weeks of March when USDA conducted its acreage survey. The drop in 2009 futures toward $10.00 also calls into question weather Brazil will expand soybean area and threatens a reduction in plantings. Such a contraction likely would have limited impact on 2008-09 U.S. soybean exports, but would be positive for 2009-10 U.S. export prospects.

The drop in soybean complex futures looks to have put biodiesel margins back in the black. Even biodiesel priced comparable to diesel plus the tax credits now appears to be profitable given a breakeven soybean oil futures price of 52 cents per pounds. Biodiesel producers that have been able to sell biodiesel at a premium to diesel have been profitable for a few weeks.

The threat to Brazilian area expansion and the potential for biodiesel production to ramp provide a longer term fundamental underpinning for soybean complex futures. In the short run, however, soybean complex could undershoot those levels as speculative selling runs its course.

Argentine Farm Strike Suspended; Paranagua Strike Halts Soybean Shipments

The longest farm walkout in Argentine history ended April 2, although farmers are threatening to resume highway blockades in 30 days if the center-left government does not grant concessions on tax hikes that farmers say have reduced their profits to point where they can barely make a living. Interior Minister Florencio Randazzo said the government is interested in opening negotiations with farmers who blockaded highways and triggered shortages before suspending their strike. But no talks started immediately.

The U.S. export program is getting a bit of a boost during the second half of the marketing year because of the farmers’ strike in Argentina that has prevented grains and oilseeds from reaching exporters and processors during the past few weeks. It was announced yesterday that the strike is being suspended for 30 days, but some additional export business could switch from Argentina to the U.S. as it will take some time for Argentina’s export pipeline to be replenished. News that some workers at one of Brazil’s major ports went on strike April 2 also was supportive to soybean futures, but those workers returned to work April 3.

Meanwhile, another strike at the Paranagua port in northern Brazil that began April 2 has paralyzed the port’s soybean shipments to overseas destinations, local media reported. Port workers launched a strike demanding better wages, according to the port authority. Paranagua is principally a soybean exporting port, handling about 60%, or 11 million tonnes, of Brazil’s soybean exports.

The strike has caused loading and unloading stoppage as only two trucks were unloading at the port due to the strike, while the rest were waiting in line outside the port. Under normal conditions, workers will unload 70 trucks per hour.

Four huge transportation belts, used to transfer the soybean from the storage rooms to the ships, have also stopped operation, said the port operators. Entry of other ships has also been delayed at Paranagua port due to the strike.

Brazilian port workers union, in a separate issue, announced recently that it is planning a 24-hour strike across several ports for April 14 to protest use of non-unionized laborers at a terminal at Itajai port, Victor Manuel Simoes Pinto at Cargonave added. Agricultural inspectors also have threatened a strike in April but have not confirmed a date. Strikes of the inspectors can affect the flow of agricultural exports and imports that require sanitary approval from the agriculture ministry. Customs agents at Brazilian ports have been on strike for more than a week but they have not had an effect on the flow of soybean or grain exports from Brazil’s ports.

Environmental Groups See Progress In Amazon Soybean Moratorium

A moratorium on the purchase of soybeans from newly deforested areas of the Amazon appears to be keeping grain fields from adding to rain forest destruction, environmentalists and an industry group have said. No new soybean plantations were detected in any of the 193 areas that registered deforestation of 250 acres or more between August 2006 and August 2007, according to Greenpeace and the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association. Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland Co. and Bunge Ltd., as well as France’s Dreyfus and Brazilian-owned Amaggi, are participating.

“Without a doubt the results show that soy moratorium is being respected and that is good news,” said Paulo Adario, coordinator of Greenpeace’s Amazon campaign. “However, the high prices of soy on the international market are increasing producers’ appetites for more land, which creates and important challenge for the companies committed to the moratorium.”

Soy Complex Higher On Speculative Buying

The soy complex closed up on April 3, reflecting speculative buying on thoughts that soybeans had gotten too cheap relative to corn following the soybean market’s substantial setback triggered by fund liquidation and the March 31 USDA reports that estimated March 1 soybean stocks and U.S. soybean planting intentions both above market expectations. May bean futures closed up $5.14, finishing at $461.86; July gained $6.06, closing at $468.84; and August was up $5.88, ending at $465.91. May meal increased $2.43 closing at $367.29; July was $1.87 higher, finishing at $370.59; and August meal closed up $2.76, ending at $365.41. May soyoil increased $7.05 to finish at $1220.69; July was up $6.61, closing at $1237.22; and August was $4.63 higher, closing at $1241.85.