美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年3月31日）

阿根廷因国内农场主继续抗议出口税而损失出口份额

尽管阿根廷农产品出口税存在争议，但政府仍拒绝改变税制的要求，此举对全球豆价１０％的上涨起到了推动作用，并导致布宜诺斯艾利斯街头涌现数千示威人群。农场主对新出台的出口税率浮动上调政策非常不满。目前大豆出口税正从３５％向４５％上调，玉米及其它农产品的上调幅度则小一些。

在上周一次措辞强硬的发言中，阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯表示坚决捍卫粮食及谷物的出口税率浮动政策，她称这项政策是“重新分配收入的重大举措”。就在此次发言的当晚，农场主及其支持者们就举行了抗议活动。一些忠于政府的团体也走上街头，个别地方出现了零星冲突。

农场主们表示，他们的纳税负担已高达７３％，认为自己受到了不公正的压榨。持续两周的抗议示威游行已使阿根廷北部多条公路、多个港口受阻。阿根廷植物油协会会长艾旁兹托·罗觉果斯（Apoundserto Rodríguez）说，只有大约３０辆卡车正在向主要港口罗萨里奥运货，而正常情况下的卡车数量为６０００辆。“目前还有２２０万吨谷物和植物油没有装车，”他说。

农业核心地带的抗议游行已使停留在公路上的农产品运输车辆长达数英里，许多出口商不得不对外宣称出现了不可抗力事件。随着阿根廷在出口市场地位的下降，中国等一些主要消费国可能会将进口来源越来越多地转向美国。

阿根廷政府表示，商品价格上升带来的利益必须全民共享，称农场主的抗议活动是一种“敲诈行为”。阿根廷经济部长马丁·卢斯托（Martín Lousteau）说，“绝对没有出现需要改变税率政策的新情况”。阿根廷经济虽然处于下滑态势，但农业仍是最获利的行业之一。卢斯托于３月１１日宣布了项有争议的税制改革，他说只有对农场主和牧场主的超常财富征税才能确保公平。

另外，阿根廷农业部说，为了弥补价格上涨带来的影响，政府去年还向国内谷物消费者支付了超过１４亿阿根廷比索（４．４４亿美元）的补贴。

普查局公布最新压榨报告

据普查局上周报告，２月份的压榨量为３９８万吨。尽管压榨数字与行业预计基本一致，但报告中的其它数字却与行业预计不一致。２月底的豆油库存降至１４１万吨，略高于上个月的１３９万吨。

２月份的榨油率为每蒲式耳１１．５２磅，与预测相符，但出乎预料的是，１月份的榨油率从每蒲式耳１１．５２磅上调至１１．５６磅。普查局公布的２月份豆粕单位产量有所下降，同时１月份的单位产量也有所下调，调整后的单位产量与美国油籽加工者协会公布的单位产量更加接近了，同时也更加接近每蒲式耳大豆可以加工出的豆油和豆粕数量了。

美国农业部下调２００７－２００８年度大豆－甲基酯生物柴油的产量预测

美国农业部将２００７－２００８年度（头年１０月至次年９月）生物柴油（大豆－甲基酯）的产量预测下调至１２７万吨，与２月份的预测相比下降了２７．２万吨，与２００６－２００７年度的用量相同。美国农业部说，由于价格不断上涨，豆油已越来越不适合用作生物柴油原料。豆油出口量目前预计为１０９万吨，高于２月份预计的８８．５万吨，也高于２００６－２００７年度８５．３万吨的实际出口量。

豆油预估产量也小幅上调至９６１万吨，高于２月份９５３万吨的预测以及２００６－２００７年度９２９万吨的实际产量。因此，期末库存数字上升至１２９万吨，高于１月份的１１３万吨，但低于２００６－２００７年度的１３２万吨。

２００８年１月的国内生物柴油产量为１４．４７５４万吨，低于１２月份的１５．３３８４万吨，但明显高于去年同期的９．１７２３万吨。非豆基生物柴油产量创下了３６．３５％的最高增幅纪录，超过去年１２月份３４．９１％和１１月份３２．５８％的增幅。去年１月份，所有生物柴油产量中只有１６．９６％是用非大豆原料生产的。以食用牛脂和黄油为原料的生物柴油产量从２００７年１２月的８４５８吨下降到２００８年１月的７７３９吨，但高于２００７年１月的３５８７吨。

泰国饲料协会要求永久取消豆粕进口税

泰国饲料协会要求泰国政府永久取消豆粕进口税，而不是仅仅取消一年。泰国饲料协会总裁Pornsilp Patcharintanakul提出这一要求的原因在于，国内价格增长过快，已引发诸多问题。该协会认为，金融动荡和价格不稳可能会进一步加剧豆粕生产商、交易商及购买商所面临的问题。泰国每年的豆粕进口量为２１０－２５０万吨。

由于阿根廷的出口业务可能转向美国，大豆类产品期价下跌

大豆类产品在３月２７日收盘时价格下跌。由于人们担心当阿根廷农场主罢工导致出口业务转向美国，而美国又不能提供足够的老茬大豆库存（除非美国农业部的库存报告能证明去年美国的大豆库存被大大低估）时，老茬大豆库存会出现供应紧张，因此老茬大豆／新茬大豆之间的价差已比３月２６日的时候扩大了５０美分。从净收入计算结果来看，作物保险、轮作、化肥成本等因素似乎已导致大豆播种面积上升、玉米播种面积下降，目前新茬玉米期货正在应对这些因素。美国农业部的库存及播种面积报告（将于３月３１日公布）将提供两方面的重要信息：一是美国老茬大豆库存的紧张程度是否会突破承受底限；二是美国大豆播种面积的反弹是否会为美国２００８－２００９年度的库存奠定坚实基础。５月份大豆期货价格下跌＄９．０９为＄４８７．６８，７月份下跌＄８．４５，为＄４９３．２８，８月份下跌＄１０．２９为４８７．９５；５月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄７．３９为＄３８４．４８，７月下跌＄７．７２为＄３８８．０１，８月份下跌＄１０．４７为＄３８１．９５；５月份豆油期货价格下跌＄５．９５为＄１２６７．２０，７月份下跌＄７．２８为＄１２８３．０８，８月份下跌＄７．０５为＄１２８９．２５。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Argentina Losing Export Share As Farm Protests Over Export Tariffs Continue

The Argentine government has rejected demands that it change controversial agricultural export tariffs which have helped push up world soy prices 10% and brought thousands of demonstrators on to the streets of Buenos Aires. Farmers are revolting over a new sliding-scale increase in export taxes. Soybean taxes are being hiked from 35 percent to 45 percent, with smaller increases on corn and other farm products.

Protests by farmers and their supporters last week night followed an uncompromising speech by President Cristina Fernández defending the new sliding scale of export tariffs on grains and cereals, which she called “profound measures to redistribute income”. Groups loyal to the government also took to the streets and there were isolated clashes.

Farmers, who say their total tax burden adds up to 73%, feel they are being unfairly squeezed. Two weeks of protests have blocked roads and ports in the north of the country. Apoundserto Rodríguez, head of the Argentine Vegetable Oil Chamber and the Cereals Export Centre, said only about 30 trucks were arriving at the main export port of Rosario, compared with 6,000 usually. “There are 2.2 million tonnes of grains and oils that have not been able to load,” he said.

The protest across the agricultural heartlands left queues of trucks laden with produce stranded for miles and has caused many exporters to declare force majeure. With Argentina on the sidelines of the export market, large consumers such as China are likely to turn increasingly to the United States for soybeans.

The Argentine government, which says the windfall from high commodities prices must be shared, has branded the protest “extortion”. The economy minister, Martín Lousteau, said there was “absolutely nothing new to warrant changing” the tariff regime. Argentina’s economy is back on track -- and agriculture remains one of its most profitable sectors. It is only fair that farmers and ranchers be taxed on more of that wealth, according to Lousteau, who announced the controversial tax overhaul on March 11.

Also, the government has paid more than 1.4 billion Argentine pesos ($444 million) in subsidies to domestic grain users over the past year to compensate for rising prices, according to the Agriculture Secretariat.

Census Crush Report Recap

The Census Bureau last week pegged the February crush at 3.98 million tonnes. While this was largely in line with and the trade’s expectations, other aspects of the crush report were not. Soybean oil stocks at the end of February dropped to 1.41 million tonnes, up slightly from the previous month’s 1.39 million tonnes.

The oil yield for February of 11.52 pounds per bushel was as expected, but the upward revision in January from 11.52 to 11.56 pounds looks out of line. The Census Bureau’s meal yield dropped in February and was revised lower for January, which looks more in line with the NOPA yields and the total oil and meal that can be extracted from a bushel of soybeans.

USDA Cuts 2007-08 Production Estimate For Soy-Methyl Ester biodiesel 

USDA has cut its forecast of soyoil for biodiesel (soy-methyl ester) to 1.27 million tonnes in 2007-08 (October/September), down by 272,000 tonnes as compared to the February estimate and equal to use in 2006-07. Rising soyoil prices discourage its use as a biofuel feedstock, USDA said. Soyoil exports are now put at 1.09 million tonnes, up from 885,000 tonnes estimated in February and also higher than the 853,000 tonnes seen in 2006-07.

The soyoil production forecast was also raised slightly to 9.61 million tonnes against 9.53 million tonnes in February and up on the 9.29 million tonnes in 2006-07. As a result, ending stocks rose to 1.29 million tonnes, compared with 1.13 million tonnes in February and 1.32 million tonnes in 2006-07.

Domestic biodiesel production in January 2008 was 144,754 tonnes, down from 153,384 tonnes in December but up significantly from 91,723 tonnes in January 2007. The share of non-soy-based biodiesel reached a record high of 36.35 percent, up from 34.91 percent in December 2007 and 32.58 percent in November. In January 2007, merely 16.96 percent of all biodiesel produced was non-soy-based. Biodiesel production from inedible tallow and yellow grease fell to 7,739 tonnes in January 2008 from 8,458 in December and against 3,587 in January 2007.

Thai Feed Association Calls For Permanent Removal OF Tariffs On Soymeal Imports

The Thai Feed Association (TFA) has requested that the Thai government should stop collecting import tariffs on soymeal permanently, not for only one year. The problems caused by steeply rising prices led Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, president of the Thai Animal Feed Association, to make his request. The TFA believes that financial turmoil and price volatility are likely to continue to exacerbate soymeal producers, dealers and buyers’ problems. Thailand’s annual imports of soymeal total between 2.1 million and 2.5 million tonnes.

Soy Complex Lower As Argentine Export Business May Switch To The United States

The soy complex closed lower on March 27. The old-crop/new-crop inverse has widened 50 cents since March 26 as concerns about tight old-crop stocks heighten as the Argentine farmer strike shifts export business to the United States that the old-crop balance sheet cannot accommodate unless USDA’s stocks report proves out that last year’s U.S. soybean crop was substantially understated. Crop insurance, rotation and fertilizer cost considerations appear to have resulted in more soybean acreage and less corn acreage that the net revenue calculations would have implied and now new-crop corn futures are battling against those factors. USDA’s stocks and acreage reports (due to be released on March 31) will provide important fundamental input as to whether the United States is headed to an intolerably tight old-crop soybean carryout and whether U.S. soybean acreage will rebound enough to allow U.S. stocks to rebuild in 2008-09. May bean futures closed down $9.09, finishing at $487.68; July lost $8.45, closing at $493.28; and August was down $10.29, ending at $487.95. May meal decreased $7.39 closing at $384.48; July was $7.72 lower, finishing at $388.01; and August meal closed down $10.47, ending at $381.95. May soyoil decreased $5.95 to finish at $1267.20; July was down $7.28, closing at $1283.08; and August was $7.05 lower, closing at $1289.25.