美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年2月25日）

美国大豆的需求保持强劲

２００７年底曾有迹象表明除欧盟和中国外，其它国家对美国大豆的需求开始下降。但之后的数据证明，那只是暂时现象，因为美国对墨西哥的大豆出口开始反弹，而且欧盟作为美国豆粕主要进口地的地位也不再像去年１０－１２月份那样稳固了。尽管２００７年下半年大豆和豆粕主要出口国对中国和欧盟的出口量很大，但在１０－１２月份期间对其它国家和地区的出口量却低于去年。分析人士预计，今年１－３月份全球对大豆和豆粕的进口需求将呈加速增长之势，原因有三：第一，中国的进口需求因国内产量欠缺而上升；第二，欧盟２７国的进口需求因饲料用谷物短缺而上升；第三，其它国家和地区的进口需求在经历了去年１１月份和１２月份的下降之后，于今年１月份开始明显反弹。

２００７年下半年的需求下滑态势目前已不复存在。全球需求的反弹进一步迫使市场做出选择，要么吸引美国和南美大幅增加大豆播种面积，要么进一步提升价格，直至对需求构成抑制。强劲的需求将会在２００７－２００８销售年度末期耗尽美国的供货，２００８－２００９年度的产量可能只有高于目前的预计才能满足全球不断增长的需求。

美国农业部首席经济学家预计农产品价格将在今后两三年保持高位

美国农业部首席经济学家乔∙戈劳伯（Joe Glauber）上周说，由于生物柴油行业需求强劲且中国、印度等新兴市场消费旺盛，农产品价格将在今后几年保持高位。今年大豆、小麦、大米的价格已上升至纪录最高点，玉米价格也创下１２年来的最高纪录。戈劳伯是在美国农业部２００８年农业前景论坛上做这番评论的。

戈劳伯说，生物柴油行业“前所未有的扩张”将使市场的供需形势出现紧张，因为更多土地被用来播种用以生产生物柴油的作物，导致小麦等作物的耕地面积下降。“今后两三年价格将保持高位，”他说。

戈劳伯还说，如果农民通过扩大耕地面积或提高单位产量来增加总产量，那么从长远来看，价格最终会下降。他预计美国食品价格将以每年３－４％的幅度上涨。

美国农业部长谢弗评论农业法案

美国农业部长谢弗上周在美国农业部举办的农业前景论坛上说，关于农业法案在预算基数以外的拨款数额，目前仍未达成一致。他还表示，“各类资金来源”均低于预期。谢弗说，“政府同意在预算基数以外再划拨６０亿美元，”目前参众两院都在关注此事，因为他们希望拨款数额能够确定以来。他补充说，尽管众议院拟议的数额为高出预算基数６０亿美元，但在参议院提议过程中讨论的１２３亿美元“实际上比预算基数高２３０亿美元……事实上，我们在本次农业法案中的开支太大了。”“追加２３０亿美元，那是不可能的事情。”他还指出，现在正在考虑“各类资金来源，”包括布什政府预算提议中的拨款。

农业州立法委员最近讨论的焦点是高于预算基数９０亿美元的农业法案拨款，但一个尚未解决的主要问题是，是否将参议院提议的农业灾难援助拨款包含在内，如果包含在内，数额为多少。布什政府反对提供灾难援助拨款。

当被问到拟议拨款对于农产品项目是否过大或拟议的营养项目开支是否过多时，谢弗说，政府曾提议在农业法案中包含营养项目追加拨款、环保、能源、特色作物等内容。谢弗目前支持在众议院拟议数额的基础上追加６０亿美元，但他表示，“预计拨款数额还将上升。”

至于农业法案的出台时间，谢弗说，立法委员可能首先需要就拨款数额达成一致，而这方面还有“许多许多问题”需要解决。“我认为如果我们能在３－４月份达成初步一致，并开始对细节进行审议，那么我们就可以将２００２年农业法案延长一个月，”谢弗预测说。但如果到那时达不成一致，而且达成一致的可能性也不大，那么“今年我们就看不到新的农业法案了，”谢弗说。

阿根廷公布首次产量预测

阿根廷农业部长上周公布了本年度的首次大豆产量预测，认为２００７－２００８年度的大豆产量将达到４５００－４８００万吨，平均产量为４６３０万吨。去年，阿根廷农业部长２月份的首次预测为４２５０－４４５０万吨，但实际的最终产量却远远高于这一预测，为４７５０万吨。

由于棕榈油价格和中国的需求促使豆油价格上升，多数大豆类产品期价上升

由于大豆期价（除３月份合约价外）回升至合约价新高，２月２１日收盘时多数大豆类产品期价上升。豆油期价继续上升，并在有关中国将订货的传闻中与马来西亚棕榈油一起创下新高。美国农业部预计今年美国的大豆播种面积将达到２８７０万公顷。这一预测被看作是利好消息，因为新茬大豆期价呈现出两位数的增长。在预测２００８－２００９年度其余时间的供需走势时，美国农业部基本延用了本月初公布的有关播种面积变化、单位产量及消费量的预测，该预测与农业部的１０年期基准预测一致。美国农业部据此预测，２００８－２００９年度的转出库存将达到４６０万吨，比其以前预测的２００７－２００８年度转出库存高２４．５万吨。市场对于大豆供货不足的担心目前可以得到缓解，价格也将暂时稳定，甚至可能下降。近期内市场一旦得到满足，大豆类产品在今后一两年就更有可能面临供货极度紧张的局面。３月份大豆期货价格上升＄２．９４为＄５１６．５３，５月份上升＄２．８５，为＄５２３．５０，７月份上升＄３．２２为５２８．９２；３月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄１．２１为＄３９６．０６，５月下跌＄０．４４为＄４０３．６６，７月份上升＄０．３３为＄４０８．５１；３月份豆油期货价格上升＄１３．８９为＄１３５１．６４，５月份上升＄１４．３３为＄１３６９．５０，７月份上升＄１５．４３为＄１３８２．５０。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Demand For U.S. Soybeans Continues To Be Strong

At the end of 2007, there were indications that demand outside of the EU and China was slipping. Data since then shows that it was only a temporary lull as U.S. soybean shipments to Mexico have rebounded and the EU has not been as dominant an importer of soybean meal as it was during October-November-December (OND). While exports of soybeans and soybean meal from major exporters to China and the EU were strong during the last half of 2007, shipments elsewhere slipped below year-ago levels during OND. Analysts project that overall world import demand growth for soybeans and soybean meal will accelerate during the January-February-March quarter with Chinese import demand growth enhanced by a small soybean crop, EU-27 import demand sustained at high levels because of a feed grain shortage and import demand elsewhere rebounding smartly in January from a drop off in November and December.

Whatever hints there were in late 2007 of a demand slowdown are no longer present. The resilience of world demand puts increased pressure on the market to either attract a sizable boost in U.S. and South American soybean plantings or to rally further to find a price level that can crimp demand. Strong demand will deplete U.S. supplies by the end of the 2007-08 marketing year and production for 2008-09 will likely have to be better then currently expected to satisfy expanding world demand.

USDA Chief Economist Expects 2-3 Years Of High Commodity Prices

Joe Glauber, chief economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said last week that agricultural commodities prices will remain high for the next few years, boosted by strong demand from the biofuels industry and robust consumption from emerging markets such as China and India. The price of soybeans, wheat and rice have surged this year to all-time highs and corn prices have jumped to a 12-year record. Glauber made his comments at USDA’s 2008 Agricultural Outlook Forum.

Glauber said the “unprecedented expansion” of the biofuels industry would keep the agricultural market tight as higher acreage devoted to biofuel crops would reduce the amount of arable land for crops such as wheat. “Prices will remain high for the next two to three years,” he said.

Glauber added that prices could come down in the long-term if farmers increased their overall production by using more arable land or boosting yields. He forecast that consumer food prices in the U.S. would rise at an annual rate of 3 to 4 percent.

USDA Secretary Schafer Comments On Farm Bill

No agreement has yet been reached on a level of funding for the farm bill beyond the budget baseline, USDA Secretary Ed Schafer said last week at USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum, adding that “all kinds of funding sources” are behind looked at. “The administration agreed to $6 billion in funding over the budget baseline,” Schafer said, adding the watch is now on the House and Senate as they try to work out a funding level. While the House framework deal was $6 billion over the budget baseline, he added that the $12.3 billion figure talked about via a Senate offer “is really $23 billion over the baseline…In reality, we are spending too much in this farm bill,” he added. “That’s not going to happen – a $23 billion increase.” He also noted there are “all kinds of funding sources” being looked at, including those contained in the Bush administration’s budget proposal.

The latest discussions among farm-state lawmakers are focusing on a farm bill funding level of around $9 billion over the budget baseline, but a major unresolved issue is whether or not to include any funding for the Senate-proposed agriculture disaster aid program and if so, how much. The Bush administration is arguing against any funding for the agriculture disaster proposal.

When Schafer was asked if the proposed funding is too large for commodity programs or too much spending is being proposed for nutrition programs, he pointed out the administration’s farm bill proposals did include an increase in nutrition funding, conservation, energy and specialty crops. While currently backing the $6 billion increase in the House offer, Schafer said he did “expect that number to migrate higher.”

Regarding farm bill timing, Schafer said he thought is was possible for lawmakers to come to terms on a framework for funding which would then leave “many, many issues” yet to be resolved. “I think if we’re in March to April and a framework is agreed to and the details are being worked on, then we’ll have a month extension” of the 2002 Farm Bill, Schafer predicted. But if no framework is at hand at that point and odds look low for success, he said “we won’t see a farm bill this year.”

Argentina Releases First Production Estimate

Argentina’s Secretary of Agriculture issued its first soybean forecasts of the season last week. Soybean production for 2007-08 was forecast between 45 and 48 million tonnes, averaging 46.3 million tonnes. Last season, Argentina’s Secretary of Agriculture’s February initial forecast was 42.5 and 44.5 million tonnes with the final production totaling much larger at 47.5 million.

Soy Complex Mostly Higher As Soyoil Is Boosted By Palm Oil And Chinese Demand

The soy complex closed mostly higher on February 21 as soybean futures rallied to new contract highs in all but the March contract. Soyoil continued to go up as it made new highs along with Malaysian palm oil amid talk of Chinese buying. USDA indicated that it expected 28.7 million hectares of soybeans would be planted this year. The estimate was viewed as being supportive as new-crop soybeans posted double-digit gains. For the rest of the 2008-09 balance sheet, USDA essentially used the same acreage abandonment, yield and usage forecasts that were in its 10-year baseline forecasts that were released earlier this month. This puts USDA’s 2008-09 carryout at 4.6 million tonnes, up 245,000 tonnes from where USDA previously had pegged the 2007-08 carryout. Market concerns about the sufficiency of soybean supplies could be assuaged for the time being and allow prices to temporary stabilize or perhaps set back. Any near-term complacency increases the risk that the soybean complex will face an intolerably tight situation in the next year or two. March bean futures closed up $2.94, finishing at $516.53; May gained $2.85, closing at $523.50; and July was up $3.22, ending at $528.92. March meal decreased $1.21 closing at $396.06; May was $0.44 lower, finishing at $403.66; and July meal closed up $0.33 ending at $408.51. March oil increased $13.89 to finish at $1351.64; May was up $14.33, closing at $1369.50; and July was $15.43 higher, closing at $1382.50.