美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年2月18日）

美国农业部公布长期基数

美国农业部公布了（去年）１１月份制订并以当月供需预测为起点的１０年期基数。农业部在报告中假定《２００２年农业安全和农村投资法》、《２００５年能源政策法》和《２００５年农业协调法》在整个预测期内将保持有效。预测没有将《２００７年能源自立与安全法案》考虑在内。美国农业部并不是想借此预测未来，而是想说明在特定外部环境中当前农业立法继续生效的情况下，有可能会发生什么情况。

去年１１月份，美国农业部曾预测２００８－２００９销售年度的大豆库存从期初的５７２万吨小幅上升至期末的５９６万吨。该预测假定，大豆播种面积为２８７０万公顷，单产为每公顷２．８３吨，２００８－２００９年度的消费总量为８０２０万吨。

在美国农业部２月份对２００８－２００９年度所做的供需报告中，唯一与上次预测保持一致的数字是期初库存，为４３５万吨。美国农业部不可能大幅调整２００８年的单产预测，但有可能下调２８７０万公顷的播种面积，因为自去年秋季以来，新茬玉米期价始终高于新茬大豆期价。由于２００８－２００８年度的需求量有所上升，美国农业部可能会小幅上调２００８－２００９年度８０２０万吨的需求量。美国农业部目前预计，南美截止２００８年１０月１日的大豆库存将比去年低４００万吨，而去年１１月份则预计该库存将比去年低２５０万吨。

至于生物柴油，此次长期预测指出，预计行业规模将继续扩大，尤其是在今后几年，到２０１０年产量将超过１２０亿加仑。

尽管预测中没有就２００７年能源法可再生燃料标准公布后玉米淀粉加工的乙醇和生物质加工的柴油所受到的影响进行全面定量分析，但一般性的影响通常会包括以下方面：

l 玉米和豆油价格因需求上升而上涨；大豆价格也将上涨。　
l 农产品价格上升导致作物播种总面积上升，其中玉米和大豆面积上升幅度更大；棉花、小麦等竞争性作物的播种面积预计将下降，从而导致价格上升。
l 由于越来越多的农作物被用于生物柴油，农作物的价格将不断上升，这将导致用于出口及国内饲料加工的作物数量下降；相比之下，豆粕数量将会更加充足，因为生物柴油在促使大豆压榨量上升的同时，也会促使豆粕产量上升。
l 饲料价格的上升将导致牲畜产业的进一步调整。

两党之间的妥协有望推进农业法案议程

众议院农业委员会主席柯林∙彼特森（明尼苏达州民主党人）２月１４日明确表示，众议院目前的农业法提案虽不是最终提案，但却力图表明，农业法案授权的拨款额可以比基数高出６０亿美元。彼特森还特别呼吁参议院、众议院和白宫就农业法案的拨款标准“商定一个具体数额。”

“这不是与任何人之间的一种交易，”彼特森强调说。“这是一种途径，可以表明如何才能在法案中制订出比基数高６０亿美元的拨款额。”他指出，６０亿美元是白宫的要求。“如果我们在３月１５日还不能达成一致，法案将到期，美国农业部将不得不执行永久法律，”彼特森说。“我们需要在星期五确定基数以上的一个拨款数额。除此之外，没有其它事项需要讨论。”

彼特森的下属还透露，２月１４日彼特森与参议院农业委员会主席汤姆∙哈金（衣阿华州民主党人）、农业部长谢弗、副部长查克∙科纳进行了会谈，据称会谈主要围绕农业法案进行。

同时，谢弗和科纳还发布了一份声明，其中部分内容如下：

“彼特森主席和高级成员[鲍勃]古拉蒂（佛吉尼亚州共和党人）的杰出工作使我们有了今天的成果，对此，政府表示感谢。众议院提出的拨款限额代表着政府所追求的真正改革。彼特森先生和古拉蒂以正确的方式认真考虑了总统所关心的问题，拨款限额的制定是为了负担起财政责任。尽管许多事项仍需努力协商，但我们对预算问题上取得的进展仍感到欣慰。

政府正在努力确定基数以上约６０亿美元的拨款，以便按照国会的支出／补偿平衡规则使用拨款。我们将继续与国会委员会就拨款补偿的来源问题密切合作。我们相信这一工作会取得进展，我们能够制定出一部完善的农业法案。

中国报道说油菜籽作物受损严重

中国国家粮油信息中心上周说，近一半的秋／冬油菜籽因雨雪而严重受损。据初步预测，中国作为世界上最大的食用油进口国，其国内食用油消费量在２００８年将达到２２４０万吨，进口量通常占消费总量的三分之一。

尽管出口量和ＮＯＰＡ压榨报告令人失望，大豆类产品期价依然上升

尽管出口量和ＮＯＰＡ压榨报告令人失望，但由于大量投机性购买将市价推高，２月１４日收盘时大豆类产品期价依然上升。大豆期价虽没有达到合约价新高，但却接近新的最高纪录。由于中国农业部一位官员表示国内油菜籽因雪灾而损失４０％，豆油期价因此而继续领先于其它大豆类产品。这一局面还使得马来西亚棕榈油期价和美国豆油期价达到纪录水平，因为豆油价格与石油价格之间的相关性已进一步减弱。尽管美国豆油库存正在上升且生物柴油产量正在下降，但出口需求仍有可能导致豆油库存下降。３月份大豆期货价格上升＄１４．５１为＄５０２．６５，５月份上升＄１４．１５，为＄５０９．０８，７月份上升＄１４．１５为５１２．４８；３月份豆粕期货价格上升＄８．３８为＄３９６．１７，５月上升＄８．４９为＄４０２．３４，７月份上升＄８．３８为＄４０４．７６；３月份豆油期货价格上升＄４１．８９为＄１２８２．２０，５月份上升＄４１．２３为＄１２９７．６３，７月份上升＄４１．２３为＄１３０９．３１。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA Releases Long Term Baseline

USDA released its 10-year baseline that was put together in November, with that month’s supply and demand forecasts as the starting point. The report assumes that the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (the 2002 Farm Act), the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and the Agricultural Reconciliation Act of 2005 remain in effect through the projection period. Projections do not reflect the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The projections are not intended to be a Departmental forecast of what the future will be, but instead are a description of what would be expected to happen under a continuation of current farm legislation, with specific external circumstances.

Back in November, USDA was looking for soybean stocks to increase slightly over the course of the 2008-09 marketing year from a carryin of 5.72 million tonnes to a carryout of 5.96 million tonnes. This assumes planted area of 28.7 million hectares, a yield of 2.83 tonnes per hectare and 2008-09 total usage of 80.2 million tonnes.

The only number that is confirmed to be in the 2008-09 balance sheet in the February USDA S&D report is the carryin of 4.35 million tonnes. USDA is unlikely to materially change its 2008 yield forecast, but could drop its acreage from 28.7 million hectares because of how new-crop corn futures have out performed newcrop soybean futures since last fall. USDA’s projected 2008-09 demand of 80.2 million tonnes may be nudged higher in light of larger 2007-08 demand. USDA’s current forecast for South American soybean stocks as of October 1, 2008 to be 4 million tonnes below the previous year versus USDA’s expectation that those stocks would be 2.5 million tonnes lower back in November.

On biofuels, the long-term baseline notes that expansion in the industry is projected to continue, particularly over the next few years, exceeding 12 billion gallons by 2010.

Although a complete quantitative analysis of the effects of the 2007 Energy Act’s RFS for ethanol derived from corn starch and biomass-based diesel is not presented in the report, general qualitative effects would include:

· Increased demand for corn and soybean oil raises prices for those commodities; soybean prices would be higher as well.
· Higher commodity prices raise overall acreage planted to crops, with a greater combined share of the total going to corn and soybeans; acreage planted to competing crops, such as cotton and wheat, would be expected to be lower, raising their prices.
· With a greater share of output going to biofuels, higher crop prices would lower other uses of crops, including exports and domestic feed use of feed grains; in contrast, soybean meal would be more plentiful as increased soybean crush for biodiesel production would raise soybean meal production as well.
· Higher feed prices would lead to further adjustments in the livestock sector.

Compromise Seen Moving Farm Bill Forward

House Ag Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) on February 14 made it clear that the House farm bill proposal which has been set forth so far is not the final bill but rather an effort to show one can write a farm bill coming in $6 billion over the baseline. Specifically, Peterson called for the House, Senate and White House to “agree on a number” relative to the level of spending in the farm bill.

“This is not any kind of deal with anybody,” Peterson stressed. “This is a way to show how to write a bill $6 billion over the baseline.” The $6 billion figure came as a request by the White House, he noted. “If we are not able to accomplish by March 15, law will expire and USDA will have to implement permanent law,” Peterson said. “We need to get a number by Friday on how much to spend over baseline. There is nothing else to talk about.”

Peterson’s staff also revealed the Chairman met on February 14 with Senate Ag Committee Chairman Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer and Deputy Secretary Chuck Conner for what was termed a farm bill focused meeting.

Meanwhile, Schafer and Conner released a statement which reads, in part:

“The administration appreciates the great work of Chairman Peterson and Ranking Member [Bob] Goodlatte (R-Va.) in bringing us this far. The funding limits outlined by the House represent the real reform sought by the administration. Mr. Peterson and Goodlatte rightfully took the president’s concern seriously and the outline was developed in an effort to reach fiscal responsibility. While there is still hard negotiating ahead on a number of items, we are pleased with our progress on budget issues.

The administration is working hard to identify roughly $6 billion over baseline to be used to fund this package in such a way as to meet Congress’ pay-go rules. We will continue to work closely with the conference committee in order to identify such offsets. We are confident this can be done and we can move forward with a good farm bill.”

China Reports Severely Damaged Rapeseed Crop

China’s National Grains and Oils Information Centre said last week that almost half of the autumn/winter rapeseed crop has been affected by damage caused by rain and snow. Preliminary forecasts suggest domestic consumption of vegetable oils in China, the world’s biggest importer of edible oils, is set to hit 22.4 million tonnes in 2008 and imports usually make up around a third of total consumption.

Soy Complex Higher Despite Disappointing Exports And NOPA Crush Report

The soy complex closed higher on February 14 despite disappointing export sales and NOPA crush reports as heavy speculative buying propelled the market higher. While soybean futures did not trade at new contract highs, they did post new record high closes. Soybean oil continued to be the leader on the product side after an official of China’s Ministry of Agriculture said that 40 percent of China’s rapeseed crop had been damaged by adverse winter weather. This sent both Malaysian palm oil futures and U.S. soybean oil futures to record levels as soybean oil prices further disconnect themselves from petroleum prices. Although U.S. soybean oil stocks are rising, there is the threat that export demand could draw those stocks down despite dwindling biodiesel production. March bean futures closed up $14.51, finishing at $502.65; May gained $14.15, closing ad $509.08; and July was up $14.15, ending at $512.48. March meal increased $8.38 closing at $396.17; May was $8.49 higher, finishing at $402.34; and July meal closed up $8.38 ending at $404.76. March oil increased $41.89 to finish at $1282.20; May was up $41.23, closing at $1297.63; and July was $41.23 higher, closing at $1309.31.