美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年2月4日）

美国豆粕使用量继续上升

尽管２００７年１２月美国大豆压榨量比预计低７.０８万吨，而且豆粕库存也高于预计，但就１０－１２月份这一季度而言，国内豆粕使用量仍呈明显上升之势。普查局将１１月份的压榨量下调了２.７２万吨，降至４２４万吨，下调后的普查数字与美国油籽加工者协会的数字更加接近了。１２月份的压榨量创下了４４２万吨的同期最高纪录，比前纪录高１３.６万吨，与１１月份的压榨进度相比，表现出反季节性增长，尽管如此，这一数字仍远远低于美国油籽加工者协会的数字。１２月底的豆粕库存超过３６.３万吨。　

１０－１２月期间国内豆粕使用量比去年同期高出近４％，７－９月份期间比去年同期高出６％，４－６月份期间比去年同期高出５％。尽管２００８年底的豆粕期价比４－７月份的豆粕期价高出１００多美元，但美国的豆粕需求并没有因此而明显减弱。就豆粕绝对价格及相对价格（于玉米相比）的升幅而言，目前豆粕期价相对于玉米而言仍处于中等价位，今后可能仍会有更多豆粕用于饲料。促进豆粕消费的另一个因素在于，７－９月和１０－１２月以蛋白为饲料的牲畜养殖企业比去年同期增加了２％。

２００７－２００８销售年度到目前为止，普查局公布的豆粕单位产量始终比较高，平均为每蒲式耳４７.８磅。同时，普查局公布的１０－１２月份豆油单位产量为每蒲式耳１１.４７磅，仅次于两年前的同期水平。１１月份和１２月份豆粕及豆油的总压榨进度达到空前水平。

尽管豆粕的国内消费量依旧旺盛，但大豆和植物油的国内人均消费量却总体上在下降（用于生物柴油的植物油数量未计算在内）。为了将每餐饮食的反式脂肪含量降低到０.５克以下，食品生产商正在调整食品配方，放弃部分氢化的豆油，改用棕榈油和无毒菜籽油。各类植物油的国内人均非生物柴油用量已连续５个季度下降。２００５年８月至２００６年８月期间由于豆油价格接近于按Btu热量单位换算的取暖用油价格（该年度用于非生物柴油的豆油数量出现上升），一部分豆油可能已被用于取暖用油。还有一种可能是，植物油价格已达到抑制消费的水平，这也许是因为油炸食品对食用油的选择变得更加谨慎或理性。

美国就欧盟的转基因作物禁令再次表示有权采取报复行动

美国上周再次表示自己有权就欧盟颁布的转基因作物禁令采取报复行动。此次争议的一方为欧盟，另一方为美国、阿根廷和加拿大。世贸组织已命令欧盟终止禁令，但欧盟发现世贸组织的裁决很难执行，因为２７个成员国中有一些已实施了自己的禁令。世贸组织表示将在２月８日由争议解决机构召开一次特别会议，以讨论美国提出的争议赔偿问题。这一方案可能会被取消，因为欧盟可能会反对召开这样的会议，而力图通过美国和欧盟之间的协商找到解决方案。但如果双方之间的协商未能达成一致，该争议最终仍将回到争议解决机构。

要求欧盟执行裁决的最后期限经过延长后于１月１１日到期。之后的一周美国决定再给欧盟一些宽限时间。华盛顿保留了进一步推迟请求世贸组织裁决欧盟是否彻底解除禁令的权利，并在欧盟不及时执行的情况下，保留采取报复行动的权利。美国在最近提交给世贸组织的一份文件中说，为补偿美国在转基因作物方面每年因欧盟而损失的出口额、特许使用费及许可费，美国有权对欧盟采取报复行动。文件说，报复方式将采取对欧盟的商品征收额外关税或解除世贸组织有关农业或卫生和安全的其它协议。

AAGC敦促美国农业部提前以非处罚手段解除土地保护性储备计划的约束

面对作物供应紧张、谷物及油籽需求不断上升的局面，农业增长及竞争力联盟（ＡＡＧＣ）敦促美国农业部长谢弗提前以非处罚手段解除土地保护性储备计划对环境不敏感土地的约束。ＡＡＧＣ在１月３１日（谢弗上任的第一天）向谢弗提交了一份报告，核心内容是，如果不对土地保护性储备计划采取措施，美国农业的主要领域将面临更大的经济压力，因为美国农业对颇具竞争力的谷物和油籽（包括农畜产品）供货有很强的依赖性，特别是在法律对生物性可再生燃料的使用做出强制性规定后，对于可用存货量来讲，需求量进一步上升。（ＡＡＧＣ是一个全国性的跨行业组织，涉及行业包括肉类、牲畜、家禽生产；农业投入；谷物销售、处理、加工及出口）ＡＡＧＣ还指出，玉米、油籽、小麦、棉花及其它作物播种面积之间的竞争仍在给目前的市场增添压力。

ＡＡＧＣ建议美国农业部提前以非处罚手段解除对土地保护性储备计划签约者的约束，以便将环境不敏感土地重新用于生产。“我们知道即使以非处罚手段提前解除土地保护性储备计划对环境不敏感土地的约束，也无法彻底满足农业用地需求，但这样做至少可以明显缓解目前的处境。”

由于出口销售量和石油价格低于预计，大豆类产品期价有升有降

由于大豆出口销售量令人失望且石油价格出现下跌，大豆类产品在１月３１日收盘时价格有升有降，其中新茬大豆期价出现两位数的增长。２００６－２００７年度的转出库存创下最高纪录，但２００７－２００８年度的转出库存却下降至２００３－２００４年度的低水平（３０５万吨），可见大豆行情非常紧张。如果南美大豆长势良好，而且２００７年改种玉米的豆田仍不再播种大豆，那么２００８－２００９年度的行情可能会更加紧张。随着近几周来阿根廷天气状况的改善，南美大豆产量呈现可观前景。但巴西中西部地区过量的降雨却对即将收割的早熟大豆构成威胁，使亚洲大豆锈病更加泛滥、更加难以控制。３月份大豆期货价格下跌＄０．４６为＄４６８．２９，５月份下跌＄０．５５，为＄４７９．９１，７月份上升＄０．０９为４８０．４２；３月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄１．３２为＄３７６．４４，５月下跌＄１．５４为＄３８１．７３，７月份下跌＄１．３２为＄３８５．２５；３月份豆油期货价格上升＄５．７３为＄１１８４．３１，５月份上升＄６．８３为＄１１９８．４２，７月份上升＄４．８５为＄１２０８．５６。

 

The Soy Export Weekly Update

U.S. Soymeal Use Continues To Increase

Soybean meal domestic disappearance continued to reflect strong growth into the 2007 October-November-December (OND) quarter despite the December crush coming in 70,800 tonnes below expectations and soybean meal stocks coming in above expectations. The Census Bureau revised lower the November crush by 27,200 tonnes to 4.24 million tonnes, which put it more in line with the NOPA-reported crush. Even though December’s crush of 4.42 million tonnes was record large for that month by 136,000 tonnes and reflected a contra-seasonal increase in the crush rate from November, the December crush was unusually low compared with the NOPA crush. Soybean meal stocks at the end of December in excess of 363,000 tonnes.

Soybean meal domestic disappearance was up from the previous year by nearly 4 percent during OND, on the heels of a 6-percent gain during July-August-September (JAS) and 5 percent during April-May-June (AMJ). The rally in soybean meal futures of more than $100 from AMJ to the end of 2008 has done little to slow the growth in U.S. soybean meal demand. As much as soybean meal has rallied in absolute terms and relative to corn, it still is at a moderate level in comparison to corn and may continue to have increased feed inclusion rates. Also supportive for soybean meal use was that protein consuming animal units were up more than 2 percent from the previous year during JAS and OND.

The Census Bureau has been reporting an unusually high soybean meal yield thus far in the 2007-08 marketing year, averaging 47.8 pounds per bushel. At the same time, the Census Bureau reported a soybean oil yield during OND of 11.47 pounds per bushel that was exceeded only by that of 2 years ago. The combined extraction rate of soybean meal and oil was unprecedented for November and December.

While soybean meal domestic offtake continues to be strong, per capita domestic disappearance of soybean and vegetable oils in general has been declining when biodiesel’s consumption of oil is excluded. Traditional uses of soybean oil have been sliding since they peaked during 2004-05 as food manufacturers are reformulating away from partially hydrogenated soybean oil to palm and canola oil as a means of reducing trans-fat content below 0.5 grams per serving. Per capita non-biodiesel domestic usage of all vegetable oils has declined for 5 consecutive quarters. There may have been some soybean oil used in place of heating oil from August 2005 to August 2006 when soybean oil prices were in close proximity to heating oil on a Btu-equivalent basis, which boosted 2005-06 non-biodiesel consumption of soybean oil. It also could be that vegetable oil prices have reached levels that have curtailed consumption, perhaps through more careful or judicious use of oil in frying applications.

U.S. Reiterates Right To Retaliate Against EU Over GM Crop Ban

The United States last week restated its right to retaliate against the European Union in a row over an EU ban on biotech crops. The dispute has pitted the EU against the United States, Argentina and Canada. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has ordered the EU to end the ban. Brussels has found it difficult to implement the WTO ruling because some of the 27 EU member states operate their own bans. The WTO said it would hold an extraordinary meeting of its dispute settlement body on February 8 to discuss a U.S. request for compensation in the dispute. The item probably would be withdrawn from the agenda following a likely EU objection as part of an agreement between Washington and Brussels to pursue a negotiated solution. But if they do not succeed, the issue will return to the dispute settlement body’s agenda.

The extended deadline for Brussels to comply expired on January 11. The following week the United States decided to give the EU more time to do so. Washington reserved its right to push later for a WTO decision on whether the EU had done enough to end the ban and, if Brussels was found wanting, to retaliate. A document that the United States filed recently at the WTO said the United States reserved the right to retaliate against the EU to compensate for the annual value of lost U.S. exports, royalties and licensing fees to the EU from biotech crops. These would be levied by imposing extra tariffs on EU goods or lifting other WTO agreements regulating agriculture or health and safety, the document said.

AAGC Urges USDA To Permit Penalty-Free Early Release From CRP

With tight crop supplies and increasing demand for grains and oilseeds, the Alliance for Agricultural Growth and Competitiveness (AAGC) urged USDA Secretary Ed Schafer to permit penalty-free early releases from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) for non-environmentally sensitive land. Among the core messages conveyed in a statement delivered to Schafer on January 31 (his first day in office), AAGC said that failing to take action on the CRP will place even greater economic pressure on major sectors of U.S. agriculture that are heavily dependent upon competitive supplies of grains and oilseeds, including animal agriculture producers, particularly given the ever-greater demand on available stocks being created by such legislative mandates as agricultural-based renewable fuels. (AAGC is an organization of national and state organizations representing a broad cross-section of meat, livestock and poultry production; agricultural input; and grain marketing, handling, processing and exporting interests.) AAGC also pointed out that competition for acreage between corn, oilseeds, wheat, cotton, and other crops continues to intensify in the current market.

The Alliance recommended that USDA offer penalty-free early releases for CRP contract-holders to allow non-environmentally sensitive acres to return to production. “We acknowledge that removing the penalties for early opt-out of non-environmentally sensitive acres from CRP will not provide all the additional cropland needed to meet these needs, but it will significantly help alleviate the current situation.”

Soy Complex Mixed On Lower-Than-Expected Export Sales And Oil Prices

The soy complex closed mixed on January 24 reflecting disappointing soybean export sales and lower petroleum prices as new-crop soybean futures posted double-digit gains. The soybean fundamentals are dramatically tightening from a record large 2006-07 carryout to a 2007-08 carryout that could be nearly as small as 2003/04’s 3.05 million tonnes. The 2008-09 situation looks to be even tighter assuming good South American crops and the reluctance of corn to relinquish the bulk of acres it took from soybeans in 2007. South American soybean production prospects are promising with Argentina’s weather improving in recent weeks. But excessive moisture in Brazil’s Center West region threatens early maturing soybeans that are ready to harvest and could make Asian soybean rust more prevalent and more difficult to control. March bean futures closed down $0.46, finishing at $468.29; May lost $0.55, closing at $479.91; and July was up $0.09, ending at $480.42. March meal decreased $1.32 closing at $376.44; May was $1.54 lower, finishing at $381.73; and July meal closed down $1.32 ending at $385.25. March oil increased $5.73 to finish at $1184.31; May was up $6.83, closing at $1198.42; and July was $4.85 higher, closing at $1208.56.