美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年1月21日）

节日导致大豆及谷物运输进度放慢

节日期间许多工作都放慢了节奏，但谷物和大豆运输似乎表现得更加明显。可能是因为新年前夕有一个长周末，新年期间驳船的装船速度明显放慢。谷物和大豆的每周驳船运量正在重现过去两年的走势，与过去五年来的平均运量相比，远远落后。在１月５日结束的那一周里，通过主要船闸的货运量为４０万吨，比往年同期的平均货运量低３６％。

只有在货运进度提高的情况下，有关墨西哥湾谷物和大豆出口量将创下第二高纪录的预测才能实现。据预测，２００７－２００８年度通过墨西哥湾出口的货物数量将达到６９９０万吨。以前只是在２００１－２００２谷物销售年度，墨西哥湾的出口量才超过这一数字。

普查局公布生物柴油生产中的豆油使用量

普查局报告说，１１月份用于生产生物柴油的豆油数量为１０．３万吨，低于１０月份１０．８万吨的调整后数字，用于生物柴油的动植物油总量也从１６．９万吨下降到１５．５万吨。就日均用量而言，１１月份生物柴油行业使用的豆油数量仅比１０月份低２％。但是，产能利用率却在继续下降，由于动植物油的日均使用量下降了５％，而１１月份的生物柴油产能却上升了近１亿加仑，因此产能利用率下降至３０％。

１月至７月期间，豆油占美国生物柴油原料的平均比例为８７％。随着其它原料比例的上升，９月份豆油所占比例降到７５％，１０月份降到６４％，但１１月份豆油比例又回升至６６％，原因是一些其它原料价格过高，不再适合用于生物柴油。

印度尼西亚将大幅下调豆油进口税

印尼贸易部长Mari Elka Pangestu在与雅加达豆腐及发酵豆糕生产商会面后于１月１４日表示，印尼政府将下调大豆进口税，以降低国内大豆价格。印尼目前的大豆进口税为１０％。约有３０００家大豆产品生产商（大部分是小型企业）在雅加达总统府外举行了集会，为此，Mari表示，“我们可以采取的一项具体措施就是将进口税从１０％降到５％或零。具体比例我们将在计算后确定。”

大豆产品生产商们要求政府稳定大豆价格。由于美国大豆产量（占印尼大豆供应量的８０－９０％）下降，印尼的大豆价格在过去一年里上涨了近１００％，目前已涨至每吨６００美元。

示威厂商们于１月１４－１６日停止了生产，以表达自己的强烈意愿。Mari还建议加大国内大豆产量。印尼目前的大豆年需求量为２００万吨，而国内产量仅为６０－８０万吨。

２００７年印尼进口了１４０万吨大豆，２００６年进口了１２０万吨。印尼农业部长Anton Apriyantono透露，在稳定国内豆价的过程中，政府也会向其它产豆国寻求供货。不过，印尼仍希望加快国产大豆的供应，为此，政府已于２００７年开始提供豆种补贴。

Anton说，尽管国产大豆的低价格已对补贴措施产生了影响，但政府今年仍会采取进一步的补贴措施，向农民提供单产达每公顷２－３吨的优质豆种。

中国在２００８年可能会增加豆油进口

据最新海关数据，中国去年的食用油进口量出现大幅上升，分析人士预计今年将继续上升。中国海关表示，２００７年的豆油进口量达到了２８０万吨，比２００６年猛增８３％。吉林粮食中心的一位分析人士对《大众公志》说，今年豆油进口可能会再次出现最大幅度的增长。“尽管国内油籽作物的种植情况预计会有所好转，但今年的２００８北京奥运会将刺激国内豆油需求，而且豆油价格也将继续跟随国际价格而上涨，”他说。

欧盟不顾转基因作物的进口审批期限

根据ＷＴＯ裁定，欧盟对批准转基因作物的最后审批期限在经过延期一次以后，于１月１１日到期。据《明日商品新闻》报道，上周作为智囊机构的国际食品及农业贸易理事会告诫说，美国和欧盟可能会就这一问题再次发生争执。

面对转基因作物进口不断被推迟和受阻的局面，欧盟一些国家的饲料企业和农场主也表示担心。他们目前正面临饲料价格的不断上涨，而最终可能会面临采购不到饲料的窘境。另外，颇具利润潜力的欧洲市场受阻后，转基因作物生产商也感到失望。

多数大豆类产品期价下跌；预计２００８－２００９年度库存仍将紧张

１月１７日收盘时多数大豆类产品期价下跌。大豆期价在涨到13美元以上后，能源价格下跌及担心出现经济衰退，而出现疲态迹象。但从大豆需求来看，如果高价格不能抑制需求，且美国农业部没有低估国内２００７年大豆产量（美国农业部１２月１日的库存数字暗示了产量情况），那么到了２００７－２００８年度末期，美国的大豆库存将接近最低水平。２００８－２００９年度的形势似乎会更加紧张，因为自１１月中旬以来玉米价格一直比大豆价格坚挺，而且春小麦价格最近也呈现挺势，因此扩大大豆播种面积面临困难。阿根廷的情况也令人关注，因为大豆作物长势不如往年正常情况。从基本面来看，目前价格尚未涨到能保证今后１８个月内供需基本平衡的水平。３月份大豆期货价格下跌＄２．２０为＄４６７．０１，５月份下跌＄２．０２，为＄４７４．３６，７月份下跌＄３．１２为４７９．６８；３月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄２．８７为＄３７９．５２，５月下跌＄３．０９为＄３８６．９１，７月份下跌＄３．７５为＄３９１．８７；３月份豆油期货价格上升＄３．９７为＄１１６６．４５，５月份上升＄７．０５为＄１１８３．８７，７月份上升＄７．０５为＄１１９６．６６。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Holidays Slow Soybean And Grain Movements

The holidays slowed many things down, but the movement of grain and soybeans seems to have slowed even more so. Perhaps the New Year holiday slowed barge loadings due to a long weekend ahead of New Year’s Day. Weekly movements of grains and soybeans by barge are trailing shipment patterns of the previous two years, while well below the five-year average. For the week that ended January 5, volumes through the key locks totaled 400,000 tonnes, 36 percent below average volumes for that week.

The pace of movements will need to increase to fulfill the second largest grain and soybean export program forecast for the Center Gulf. For 2007-08, exports through the Center Gulf are forecast at 69.9 million tonnes. Exports through the Center Gulf were only larger during the 2001-02 grain marketing year.

Census Bureau Reports On Soyoil Usage In Biodiesel Production

The Census Bureau reported that soyoil usage in biodiesel production totaled 103,000 tonnes in November, down from a revised 108,000 tonnes in October, while total usage of fats and oils for biodiesel dropped to 155,000 tonnes from 169,000 tonnes. On a daily usage basis, the biodiesel industry’s use of soybean oil declined by only 2 percent from October to November. However, capacity utilization continued to decline, falling to 30 percent as combined usage of all fats and oils dropped by 5 percent on a daily usage basis while biodiesel capacity increased by almost 100 million gallons during the month.

From January through July, soybean oil accounted for 87 percent of U.S. biodiesel production, on average. That share dropped to 75 percent in September and 64 percent in October as the use of other feedstocks was growing, but soybean oil accounted for 66 percent of biodiesel production in November as prices for some alternative feedstocks are becoming too high to make them feasible for use in biodiesel.

Indonesia To Slash Soybean Import Duties

The Indonesian government would lower the soybean import duty to lower the domestic price of soybean, Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu said on January 14 after meeting with tofu and fermented soybean cake producers in Jakarta. Indonesian importers pay 10 percent soybean import duty. “One concrete move that we can take is to lower the import duty from 10 percent to 5 percent or zero. We will calculate it later,” she said, as some 3,000 soybean product producers, mostly small businesses, staged a rally outside the presidential palace in Jakarta.

They called on the government to stabilize soybean price, which has increased by almost 100 percent in the past year to $600 per tonne due to declining production in the United States, which supplies 80-90 percent of Indonesia’s soybean requirements.

The demonstrators also ceased production 14-16 January to press their demand. Mari has also suggested increasing domestic soybean production. Indonesia’s annual soybean demand is 2 million tonnes while domestic production ranges between 600,000-800,000 tonnes.

Indonesia imported 1.4 million tonnes last year and 1.2 million tonnes in 2006. Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono disclosed that the government would also be seeking soybean supply from other soybean producing countries in its efforts to stabilize the commodity’s domestic prices. However, Indonesia wants to accelerate soybean self-sufficiency, an effort that has been made by the government by providing subsidy for soybean seeds in 2007.

Although low prices for local soybeans have impacted upon the subsidy scheme, he said the government would continue with the subsidy this year by providing superior seeds which could yield two to three tonnes per ha.

China Likely To Boost Soyoil Imports In 2008

China’s imports of edible oils leaped last year according to the latest customs data and analysts predict another rise this year. The China Customs Office said soyoil purchases hit 2.8 million tonnes, surging 83 percent from 2006. An analyst with Jilin Grain Centre told The Public Ledger that said soyoil is likely to see the biggest jump in imports again this year. “The 2008 Beijing Olympics will boost domestic soyoil demand this year and soyoil prices will continue to track the rise of international prices, despite an expected recovery of domestic oil crop cultivation,” he said.

EU Ignores Deadline To Comply With Mandate To Approve Imports Of GM Crops

An already-extended deadline for the EU to comply with a WTO ruling on the approval of Genetically Modified (GM) crops expired on January 11. Last week, the think-tank International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council warned the row over the issue between the U.S. and EU could erupt again according to Commodity News for Tomorrow.

The feedstuff industry and farmers in some EU countries are as worried about the situation where GM imports are being continually delayed and effectively blocked. They face increasingly steep price rises for feed, and ultimately not being able to source it at all. Meanwhile, GM producers are frustrated about being effectively locked out of potentially lucrative European markets.

Soy Complex Mostly Lower; Tight Stocks Expected Through 2008-09

The soy complex closed mostly lower on January 17. After reaching the teens, soybean futures are showing some signs of tiring amid lower energy prices and recession concerns. However, soybean demand appears to be running at a pace that will draw down U.S. soybean stocks to near minimum levels by the end of the 2007-08 marketing year if these high prices do not slow demand and USDA did not understate the 2007 U.S. soybean crop as USDA December 1 stocks hinted might be the case. The situation looks to be even tighter for 2008-09 because of the difficulty soybeans have had boosting acreage given the strength in corn prices relative to soybeans since mid November and recent strength in spring wheat futures. The situation in Argentina also is a concern as the soybean crop there develops under sub-par conditions. The underlying fundamentals suggest the prices have not risen enough to allow for a tolerable supply and demand balance over the next 18 months. March bean futures closed down $2.20, finishing at $467.01; May lost $2.02, closing at $474.36; and July was down $3.12, ending at $479.68. March meal decreased $2.87 closing at $379.52; May was $3.09 lower, finishing at $386.91; and July meal closed down $3.75 ending at $391.87. March oil increased $3.97 to finish at $1166.45; May was up $7.05, closing at $1183.87; and July was $7.05 higher, closing at $1196.66.