美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年1月14日）

美国农业部预计国内大豆产量为７０４０万吨

美国农业部作物产量年度报告的数据表明，美国农业部对２００７年美国大豆产量的预测与行业预测一致，为７０４０万吨，比１１月份的预测低２４．５万吨。美国农业部１２月１日公布的大豆预估库存为６３４０万吨，比行业预计高１６３－１７７万吨。美国农业部对产量和库存的预测表明，去年９－１１月份的剩余使用量仅为１０３万吨，是１９８６－１９８７年度以来最低的一年。尽管９－１１月份的剩余使用量很小，但美国农业部还是将２００７－２００８年度的预估剩余使用量上调了５．４４万吨至２１５万吨，因此２００７－２００８年度的预估转出库存可能为４７６万吨，比上个月的预测低２７．２万吨。美国农业部还进一步上调了大豆及大豆产品的价格预测，并根据榨油率的提高将豆油预估产量及期末库存上调４．０８万吨。

由于播种面积下降，美国农业部将巴西大豆预估产量下调１５０万吨至６０５０万吨。巴西大豆预估出口量的下调与阿根廷预估出口量的上调基本相抵，因此全球大豆预估库存下调１１０万吨。美国农业部对大豆产量的预测并不十分出人预料，但由于玉米预估产量及库存明显上升，且冬小麦播种面积低于预计，大豆期价将继续走高。

孟山都公司说，豆种供应经受考验

孟山都公司一位高层管理人员对路透社说，由于美国豆农已开始为２００８年的大豆播种做准备，种子公司正在想方设法确保豆种供应量。Delta & Pineland业务分公司（去年由孟山都公司收购）负责人Kevin Eblen在采访中对路透社说，由于农民希望把握住商品价格大幅上涨的良好势头，今年“美国各地的大豆播种面积都在扩大。”“这给整个行业的豆种供应构成了很大压力，” Eblen说。“大部分豆种公司目前都在忙于供货。”

Eblen还说，“［棉花］播种面积肯定会下降。就目前的商品价格而言，农民可能更愿意播种其它作物。” Eblen说，导致棉花面积下降的另一个原因则在于，美国生物柴油产业（特别是玉米基替代性燃料乙醇的生产）开始兴起。

海运价格下跌

美国谷物及大豆的对外运输成本自１１月份创下最高纪录以来已下跌了１３－４１％。比如，从墨西哥湾到日本的运价去年１０月下旬曾创下每公吨１１５美元的纪录，现在已下降了１３％，本周已降至１００美元以内。墨西哥湾至欧洲的运价也经历了类似下降，从去年１１月中旬每公吨近７８美元的最高纪录跌至目前的每公吨６６美元。太平洋西北沿岸至日本的运价降幅最大，为４１％，去年１０月下旬曾达到创纪录的每公吨近８４美元，而到了今年１月４日的那一周，已下降了４０多美元。墨西哥湾及太平洋西北沿岸上次达到这一运价水平是在９月底和８月底。导致目前运价走势的原因在于定期租船市场发生的变化，具体变化详见下一页有关两条巴拿马型散货船舶关键线路的数字。

运价下降是因为不同吨级船舶（特别是好望角型大型散货船）的运力出现增长。巴西由于港口拥挤使得铁矿石装货量减少，致使一些船舶又回到现货船租市场，而中国则放慢了铁矿石的进口速度，这也许只是年度铁矿石价格谈判之前的一种策略。

另外，尽管驳船运价在２００７年结束时下降了约８％，但全年的运价水平仍创下第二高纪录。如果不是因为夏末驳船需求大幅上升以及谷物出口前景明显改观，年末运价可能会更低。就２００８年而言，运价预计会下降５％。

印度在２００８年第一季度可能会增加食用油进口量

尽管国际大豆价格在上涨，印度在今年第一季度仍将进口约１２０万吨食用油，高于去年同期的７８万吨。印度中央食用油行业及贸易组织官员Govindhbhai Patel说，油籽期末库存的下降以及国内消费量的上升是扩大进口的主要原因。“去年我们的油籽期末库存高达１４０万吨，但今年的期末库存只有５０万吨，” Patel说。“过去几周内国际油价一路高涨，国内价格也因消费旺盛而明显高于去年。”

Patel还说，尽管豆油和棕榈油目前的差价为每吨２００美元左右（去年每吨差价只有２０美元），他仍预计豆油进口量将上升大约１８．５万吨。

另据相关消息，为抑制国内价格上涨并缓解通胀压力，印度可能会下调植物油进口关税。“过去两周内食用油价格的大幅上涨是引起政府担忧的一个原因，”印度炼油者协会执行董事梅塔说。“价格的上涨可能会迫使政府在近期内下调植物油进口关税，以保护消费者的利益。”

中国报告说２００７年前１０个月的食用油进口量同比上升

据最新海关数据显示，中国在２００７年前１０个月的食用油进口量与去年同期相比上升了２６．６％，食用油进口总额更是上升了９８．６％。中国在去年１－１０月进口了价值４９．９亿美元的约６９７万吨食用油。据中国海关方面的消息，进口量上升的部分原因在于，政府在２００６年初采取了废除食用油进口配额的鼓励进口的管理措施。进口成本之所以增加，是因为国际食用油价格在上涨，目前豆油的平均价格为每吨７２７．６０美元，上涨了４４．９％。

大豆类产品期价在美国农业部报告公布之前有升有降　

由于１月１１日美国农业部公布报告之前交易商们纷纷建立交易头寸，因此大豆类产品在１月１０日收盘时价格有升有降。１月份大豆期货价格下跌＄１．８４为＄４６３．０６，３月份下跌＄０．８３，为＄４６３．０６，５月份上升＄０．９２为４６９．４０；１月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄１．１０为＄３７６．４４，３月下跌＄０．２２为＄３８３．８２，５月份下跌＄０．３３为＄３８９．９９；１月份豆油期货价格上升＄３．３１为＄１１２１．０４，３月份上升＄４．１９为＄１１３０．３０，５月份上升＄８．３８为＄１１４４．４１。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA Pegs 2007 Crop At 70.4 Million Tonnes

USDA’s estimate of the 2007 U.S. soybean crop was in line with trade expectations, dropping 245,000 tonnes from November to 70.4 million tonnes, according to data from USDA’s Crop Production Annual Summary. USDA’s December 1 soybean stocks estimate of 63.4 million tonnes was 1.63 to 1.77 million tonnes more than trade expectations. USDA’s production and stocks estimates imply September/November residual use of just 1.03 million tonnes, which would be the lowest since 1986-87. Despite the small residual use for the September/November quarter, USDA nudged its 2007-08 residual use higher by 54,400 tonnes to 2.15 million tonnes so that its 2007-08 carryout could round off to 4.76 million tonnes, down 272,000 tonnes from last month. USDA hiked its price projections further for soybeans and the products and boosted soybean oil production and ending stocks by 40,800 tonnes on a higher oil yield.

USDA cut Brazil’s soybean crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 60.5 million on lower area. The accompanying cut in Brazil’s soybean exports has been offset by larger exports for Argentina and Paraguay, dropping world soybean stocks 1.1 million tonnes in the process. USDA’s reports for soybeans did not present a bullish surprise, but bullish production and stocks figures for corn and smaller-than-expected winter wheat area likely will keep soybean futures moving higher.

Monsanto: Soybean Seed Supply Tested

Seed companies are struggling to make sure there are ample soybean seed supplies because many U.S. farmers are planning to plant soybeans in 2008, a senior official of a Monsanto unit told Reuters. Kevin Eblen, the head of the Delta & Pineland business unit bought by Monsanto last year, told Reuters in an interview that soybean acres “across the U.S. are going to increase” this year as farmers try to take advantage of steep price rallies in the commodity. “That is actually putting a lot of pressure on the industry’s capability to supply soybean seed,” Eblen said. “Most companies in the business are scrambling for supply.”

Eblen added that, “[Cotton] acres are going to be off certainly. With commodity prices where they are...farmers are probably more motivated to switch out over to these other commodities.” Eblen said the reduction in cotton acreage also stemmed from the rise of the biofuel industry in the country, especially in the manufacture of the alternate fuel ethanol from corn.

Ocean Freight Rates Fall

The cost to move grains and soybeans out of the United States has eased anywhere from 13% to 41% since hitting record highs during November. From the Gulf to Japan for example, the rate has dropped 13% since hitting a record $115 per metric ton in late October, ending this week at just under $100. The Gulf to Europe was down by a similar amount to $66 per metric ton from the mid-November high of nearly $78. The Pacific Northwest (PNW) to Japan rate dropped the fastest down 41% to less than $50 per metric ton for the week of January 4 since hitting a record of nearly $84 in late October. Rates were last at these levels out of the Gulf in late September and late August from the PNW. These rates are derived from the changes taking place in the time-charter markets as shown in the figure on the next page for two key Panamax routes.

The drop in rates was led by a build up in capacity among the various vessel class sizes, especially for Capesize vessels. Iron ore loadings out of Brazil were curtailed by congestion, sending some vessels back to the spot market while China has slowed its iron ore imports somewhat, perhaps as a maneuver ahead of the annual iron ore rate negotiations.

Meanwhile, though barge freight rates ended about 8% lower during 2007, they followed a record year and ended the second highest on record. If it was not for the late summer surge in barge demand and improved grain export prospects, rates would have finished much lower. For 2008 the rate outlook is expected to be down 5%.

India Expects Increased Edible Oil Imports In First Quarter Of 2008

India will import roughly 1.2 million tonnes of edible oils in the first quarter of the year, up from around 780,000 tonnes in the same period last year, despite the increase in global prices. Govindhbhai Patel, an official from India’s Central Organization of Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT), said lower carryover stocks of oilseeds and increased domestic consumption would account for the rise in purchases. “Last year we had high carryover stocks of 1.4 million tonnes of rapeseed but this year we only have around 0.5 million tonnes,” Patel said. “International prices of oils have gone up very high in the last few weeks and domestic prices are also high compared to last year because of good consumption levels.”

Patel also said he expected soyoil imports to increase by roughly 185,000 tonnes in spite of the difference in price between soyoil and palm oil currently standing at around $200 a tonne, from $20 a tonne last year.

In related news, India may cut customs duties on vegetable oils to rein in a spike in domestic prices and to keep a lid on inflation pressures. “The sharp rise in prices of oils in the last fortnight is a cause of concern to the government,” said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India. “This might compel the government to reduce the duty on vegetable oils in the near future to safeguard consumer interests.”

China Reports Increased Edible Oil Imports Through First 10 Months Of 2007

China’s imports of edible oils jumped 26.6% in the first ten months of 2007, compared to the same period in the previous year, and the total value of the shipments jumped a staggering 98.6% according to the latest customs data. Around 6.97 million tonnes of vegetable oils worth $4.99 billion were imported by China between January and October last year. Sources at the Chinese customs office said the increase in purchases was partly due to a government incentive to scrap the import quota system for edible oils at the beginning of 2006. The increase in costs was due to the rising global value of edible oils with the average price of soyoil at $727.60 a tonne, up 44.9%.

Soy Complex Mixed Ahead Of USDA Reports

The soy complex closed mixed on January 10 amid positioning ahead of the January 11 USDA reports. January bean futures closed down $1.84, finishing at $463.06; March lost $0.83, closing at $463.06; and May was down $0.92, ending at $469.40. January meal decreased $1.10 closing at $376.44; March was $0.22 lower, finishing at $383.82; and May meal closed down $0.33 ending at $389.99. January oil increased $3.31 to finish at $1121.04; March was up $4.19, closing at $1130.30; and May was $8.38 higher, closing at $1144.41.