美国大豆协会－每周快报（2008年1月7日）

库存不足、价格过高迫使日本进口大豆

据日本《新闻总汇报》报道，由于担心国内粮食（特别是谷物、饲料及大豆）不能自给自足，而且目前正值供应不足、价格高涨，日本政府决定通过大量进口来增加库存储备。日本的国内粮食产量仅占本国消费总量的４０％，是这一比例最低的工业化国家，其中大豆产量只能满足国内需求量的四分之一，小麦产量只能满足需求量的１３％，饲料则全部靠进口。

面对全球价格的上涨，日本为摆脱近年来国内金融／经济的困境而大量动用国内粮食库存，因此作为日本主要营养源的水稻，其库存总是维持在与消费量大致相当的水平。

目前许多国家正越来越清楚地认识到食品安全问题，有些国家已采取了严格的食品安全措施。本月，日本首相福田康夫率领的未来食品战略委员会将展开讨论，以便能在３月份制定出一份计划，由农林渔业部执行。

《新闻总汇报》说，该计划准备将库存量（包括私有库存）提高到足够三个月使用的水平。目前小麦储备可使用２－３个月（其中国家储备可使用１．８个月），大豆储备可使用１个月（其中国家储备可使用２周），饲料储备可使用２个月（其中国家储备可使用１个月）。

印度准备增加植物油进口量

据汉堡“油世界”油籽分析师的预测，由于国内产量无法满足不断增长的需求，印度决定在未来几个月加大植物油（特别是棕榈油）进口量。油世界说，印度在２００７－２００８年度（头年１０月至次年９月）可能会进口５６２万吨食用动植物油，高于上一年度的５５１万吨。油世界说，预计印度的动植物油产量将从２００６－２００７年度的８８７万吨上升到２００７－２００８年度的９５４万吨。油世界说，“印度长期以来面临着动植物油供应不足的问题，今年下半年这一问题将进一步突显，主要原因在于，作物印度首要油料作物的油菜籽，其播种面积和产量均将有所下降。” 油世界说，为了享受高价带来的好处，印度农民已开始扩大粮食播种面积，但近来的干旱天气却对播种构成阻碍。

美国农业部说，农产品价格将继续上涨

美国农业部在１２月２８日发布的一份报告中说，１２月份农产品价格连续第四个月上涨，涨幅高达３．４％。１２月份农产品价格的初步指数达到了１９９０－１９９２年度基础指数的１５１％，比２００６年同期的指数高２６％。作物指数上升了６．５％。农产品指数和作物指数均达到纪录最高水平。

西红柿、玉米、大豆、小麦的价格有所上升，桔子、火鸡、菜豆、肉鸡的价格有所下跌。从三年来的商品销售平均指数来看，综合指数也受到季节性变化的影响。小麦、牛奶、桔子、肉鸡平均销售指数的上升抵消了大豆、牛肉、玉米、葡萄销售指数的下降。

１２月份的商品以及服务支付价格指数(PPITW)为１９９０－１９９２年平均值的１６２％。本月的ＰＰＩＴＷ比１１月份上升了０．６％，比２００６年同期上升了８．７％，创下最高纪录。粮食类谷物、商品蔬菜、饲料类谷物及干草、油料作物指数的上升幅度超过了水果和坚果指数的下降幅度。

１２月份油籽作物的指数为１８３，比１１月份上升１２％，比去年同期上升６３％。大豆价格为每蒲式耳１０．４０美元，比１１月份上升９９美分，比去年同期上升４．２２美元。

面对不断上涨的商品价格，美国政府几乎无以应对

面对不断上涨的商品和食品价格，美国政府正在采取什么样的应对措施呢？事实上，政府可以采取或应该采取的措施并不多。但商品交易商经常会问关于土地休耕计划（ＣＲＰ）的问题，因为休耕的土地中有许多都在２００８年具有很大的开垦潜力。

现在政府官员会说，下一次的“数据检查”将在１月１１日，届时美国农业部将发布谷物库存报告及作物产量年度汇总。但正如我们以前注意到的一样，美国农业部代理部长查克∙康纳尔已经明确表示，政府目前是不会允许一些ＣＲＰ的参与者违背休耕合同而不用支付罚金的，要改变这一作法，可能还需要一些主要的新闻媒体不断报道相关情况才行。事实上，一位政府官员曾指出，处罚“并没有那么高，特别是人们看到目前的商品价格、土地租金与ＣＲＰ付款的比例以及多年期租金协议的趋势之后。”

另一个值得注意的地方是，农业部没有把重点放在食品价格的通涨上面。过去的经验表明，当白宫及其它政府高层官员开始询问有关农业及食品政策的问题时，事情就会进展得很快。但是，目前高层还没有提出这方面的问题。

２００８年初大豆类产品期价上升　

大豆类产品在１月３日收盘时价格上升。大豆市场以合约价新高迎来了２００８年。大豆期价在最活跃的几个月份上升了近２０美分，而７月份的合约价更是超过了１９７３年创下的最高纪录。豆粕和豆油期价也创下合约价新高，但豆油价格相对疲软一些，因为石油收盘价略有下降。尽管大豆期价达到纪录水平，但市场上似乎仍存在很强的支持力量，而且这种势头可能会持续下去，除非玉米地改种大豆的趋势进一步明显，且南美收成超过预计或需求因价格过高而出现回落的迹象。１月份大豆期货价格上升＄６．９８为＄４５９．８４，３月份上升＄６．８９，为＄４６５．７２，５月份上升＄７．３５为４７１．９７；１月份豆粕期货价格上升＄６．７２为＄３７９．３０，３月上升＄７．１６为＄３８６．４７，５月份上升＄７．１６为＄３９０．７７；１月份豆油期货价格上升＄１１．９０为＄１１１３．３２，３月份上升＄８．３８为＄１１２８．３１，５月份上升＄８．６０为＄１１４０．６６。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Low Stocks And High Prices Forcing Japan To Buy Soybeans 

Concerned about a lack of food self-sufficiency - in grains, feed and soybeans in particular – and prompted by short supply and soaring prices, Japan’s federal government is set to embark on a buying spree to build up stockpiles according to The Yomiuru Shimbun newspaper. With the lowest food self-sufficiency rates of the industrial world at 40 percent, Japan only produces a quarter of the soybeans needed to meet domestic demand, 13 percent of the wheat consumed and imports all feed.

Stocks of the national nutritional staple rice have always been maintained at sufficient levels because of its significance to the Japanese recent financial/economic difficulties led to grain stocks being depleted as global prices surged.

Now the food security issue is being increasingly recognized by many countries, some of which have introduced severe measures to safeguard supplies. This month, a council for future food strategy, headed by Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will start discussions with a view to compiling a report in March which will then be acted on by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

The Yomiuru Shimbun newspaper reported that the plan will be to build up stocks which will last three months – including private inventory. Currently wheat reserves are sufficient for two to three months (including state storage of 1.8 months), one month for soybeans (two weeks) and two months for livestock feed (one month).

India To Increase Vegetable Oil Imports

India is set to increase vegetable oils imports in coming months, especially of palm oil as its domestic oilseed production cannot cope with rising demand, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts “Oil World” forecast. India is likely to import 5.62 million tonnes of edible oils and fats in 2007-2008 (October/September), up from 5.51 million tonnes in 2006-07, Oil World said. This was despite a forecast rise in 2007-08 Indian oils and fats production to 9.54 million tonnes from 8.87 million tonnes in 2006-07, it said. “The country’s chronic oilseed and vegetable oil supply deficit may again aggravate in the second half of this season, primarily due to a setback in plantings and production of rapeseed, the most important crop for India’s vegetable oil production,” said Oil World. Indian farmers have planted more grain to take advantage of current high prices while dryness had also recently hampered plantings, it said.

USDA: Farm Product Prices Continue To Rise

The prices farmers received for their products jumped 3.4 percent in December for the fourth consecutive increase, the Agriculture Department said in a report released December 28. The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in December was 151 percent of its 1990-92 base, and 26 percent above the December 2006 index. The Crop Index is up 6.5 percent. The All Farm Index and All Crop Index are at record highs.

Producers received higher commodity prices for tomatoes, corn, soybeans, and wheat. Lower prices were received for oranges, turkeys, snap beans, and broilers. The overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased average marketings of wheat, milk, oranges, and broilers offset decreased marketings of soybeans, cattle, corn, and grapes.

The December Index of Prices Paid for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW) is 162 percent of the 1990-92 average. The index is up 0.6 percent from November and 8.7 percent above December 2006 for a record high. Index increases for food grains, commercial vegetables, feed grains & hay, and oil-bearing crops, more than offset the index decreases for fruits & nuts.

The December index for oil-bearing crops is 183, up 12 percent from November and 63 percent higher than December 2006. The soybean price, at $10.40 per bushel, increased 99 cents from November and is $4.22 above December 2006.

U.S. Government Has Few Options To Manage Rising Commodity Prices

What is the U.S. government doing to alter policy to manage rising commodity and food prices? There is not much the government can and should do relative to rising prices. But the one topic commodity traders frequently ask about is the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) because some of those acres could increase the land pool for what is clearly a fierce acreage competition in 2008.

Government officials for now will only say that the next major “data check” is January 11, when USDA releases the Grain Stocks report and the Crop Production, Annual Summary. But as we have noted in the past, Acting USDA Secretary Chuck Conner has made it clear that it would take some major news to alter the current position of not offering some CRP participants to bolt their contracts without penalty. In fact, one government official noted that the penalty “is not all that great, especially when one looks at current commodity prices and land rental rates versus CRP payments, and the current move to multiple-year rental rate agreements.”

Another angle to monitor is any non-USDA focus on food price inflation. When White House and other top administration officials start asking questions about farm and food policy, history shows that things can happen fast. However, no such high-level questioning has occurred at this time.

Soy Complex Up In Early 2008

The soy complex closed up on January 3. The soybean market has started 2008 by making new contracts highs. Soybean futures gained nearly 20 cents in the front months, while the July contract topped 1973’s record high. Soybean meal and soybean oil futures also made new contract highs, but soybean oil was the weaker product as the petroleum markets closed a bit lower. Though soybean futures are at record level, the market appears to be well supported and may continue its uptrend unless the corn market becomes more willing to let go of some of its acreage, the South American crops exceed expectations or demand begins to show signs of being moderated by high prices. January bean futures closed up $6.98, finishing at $459.84; March gained $6.89, closing at $465.72; and May was up $7.35, ending at $471.97. January meal increased $6.72 closing at $379.30; March was $7.16 higher, finishing at $386.47; and May meal closed up $7.16 ending at $390.77. January oil increased $11.90 to finish at $1113.32; March was up $8.38, closing at $1128.31; and May was $8.60 higher, closing at $1140.66.