美国大豆协会－每周快报（2007年12月10日）

美国大豆出口协会说，非转基因大豆需要有更高的溢价支持

美国大豆出口协会首席执行官杜安说，明年播种非转基因大豆的农民将会要求更高的溢价，并且只按合同规定的数量供货。最近在东京接受采访时，杜安说，美国农民正在减少非转基因大豆的播种面积，因为与转基因大豆相比，非转基因大豆不仅种植成本高，而且单位产量低。

对于日本这个最大的非转基因出口市场而言，溢价的提高将增加食品供应商的成本。台湾、韩国等一些亚洲购买商也进口非转基因大豆。

“不敢保证现货市场上会有供货，”杜安说。他还说，“如果不签合同，谁也无法保证供货。”

中国在２００７－２００８年度预计会增加豆油进口量

一位行业分析人士表示，中国的大豆压榨业没有能力使产量满足日益增长的需求，２００７－２００８年度豆油进口量将大幅上升。油世界（一家油籽分析机构）称，由于国内生产商无法满足大幅上升的需求，２００７年１０月至２００８年９日中国的豆油进口量将从去年同期的２４０万吨上升２８０万吨。

“国内的植物油供货形势仍然相当关键，”油世界说。“近几周来，（中国）政府已开始提醒加工企业和贸易企业加大进口量，以补充国内供应量。”油世界还说，最近虽然进口了大量棕榈油、豆油和菜籽油，但还是没有达到有效抑制油价的预期效果。

由于人口增加且经济强势增长，中国的豆油进口量在过去两年里迅速上升。中国在２００５－２００６年度进口了１５１万吨豆油，去年进口了２４０万吨豆油，年度增幅达５８％。

参议院领导人达成农业法案修订协议

参议院领导人已达成一项协议，根据该协议，陷入停顿的２００７年农业法案将有望于本周付诸议事审核。此前导致僵局的主要原因在于，围绕农业法案审议期间需要讨论的修订数量存在分歧。参议员们提交了２５０多项修订提议，这么大的数量显然不切实际。

根据这项多数派领导人海瑞∙雷德（内华达州民主党人）和少数派领导人米奇∙迈克内尔（肯塔基州共和党人）之间达成的协议，双方各自均可提出２０项修订提议，而且不要求所有修订提议都与农业法案密切相关。修订提议可能包含那些改变联邦财产税条款的举措，也可能包含那些影响商品市场条例及能源衍生产品处理条例的措施。另一个有可能作为法案修订议题来讨论的事项是移民问题。

修订提议的投票表决最早也要到１２月１１日才能进行，届时投票工作可能会持续几天时间。由于最终的４０项修订提议尚未确定，因此修订提议的具体细节还不清楚。

参议院有关农业法案的最终审议无论何时进行，预计都将比年初众议院的审议过程更复杂、更棘手。

美国农业出口额预计将达纪录水平

美国农业部说，２００８财政年度的农业出口额预计将猛增到９１０亿美元的纪录水平，超过去年创下的８１９亿美元的前纪录。如果这一预计成为现实的话，２００８年的农业出口总额将比美国农业部８月份的预测高出７５亿美元。“这一前景的利好因素还包括：需求持续旺盛、谷物及油籽供应紧张且价格大幅上升、美元进一步疲软，”美国农业部说。

美国农业部说，由于中国的需求不断增长（将在２００７年度的基础上增长１９亿美元），２００８财政年度的大豆出口总额将达到１０４亿美元。美国农业部还将小麦预估出口额上调至７５亿美元（比２００７年多１１亿美元），将玉米预估出口额从８９亿美元上调至１０２亿美元。

普查局说：生物柴油行业的豆油使用量继续下降

普查局的动植物油报告显示，生物柴油行业的豆油使用量从９月份的１２．７万吨（调整后数字）进一步下降至１０月份的１０．７万吨。由于过去两三周内豆油期价的跌幅小于原油期价的跌幅，生物柴油的利润率进一步下降。普查局还将１０月份的豆油库存上调了７２６０吨，增至１３８万吨。

研究表明，老年妇女吃以大豆为原料的食品对健康有益

日本政府的一项研究表明，经常食用日本传统大豆类食品的老年妇女不太容易患心脏病。研究发现，大豆富含异黄酮，异黄酮是雌激素（类似于雌性荷尔蒙）的一种自然来源。研究表明，每周食用至少５次大豆类食品的妇女与那些大豆类食品食用次数最少的妇女相比，前者患心脏病或中风的风险系数为０．３９，而后者的风险系数为１。

此项研究的负责人Yoshihiko Kokubo是日本国家心血管中心预防性心脏病学的主任医生。他说，对于那些过了更年期的妇女，大豆类食品的这一功效更加明显，他们的风险系数仅为０．２５。

由于能源价格对市场构成压力，多数大豆类产品期价下跌

由于能源价格早些时候的下滑给市场造成压力，多数大豆类产品在１２月６日收盘时价格下跌。大豆类产品期价曾因石油走势回升而一度走高，但这一势头未能持继下去，收盘时价格普遍下跌。据报道，投机资金在大豆类产品的交易中分布得比较均匀，豆油和豆油有少量投机性出售。１月份大豆期货价格下跌＄０．２８为＄４０３．２７，３月份上升＄０．０９，为＄４１０．７０，５月份下跌＄０．７３为４１３．６４；１２月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄１．１０为＄３３０．２５，１月下跌＄１．２１为＄３３３．２３，３月份下跌＄０．７７为＄３３８．９６；１２月份豆油期货价格不变，仍为＄９９７．５８，１月份下跌＄１．３２为＄１００６．１８，３月份下跌＄１．５４为＄１０１８．９７。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USSEC: Higher Premiums Needed For Biotech-Free Soybeans

Soybean farmers will demand higher premiums for non-genetically engineered soybeans next year and likely supply only the crops under contract, according to US Soybean Export Council CEO Dan Duran. During a recent interview in Tokyo, Duran noted that U.S. farmers are planting fewer acres of non-biotech soybeans that are more expensive to produce and lower-yielding than genetically engineered varieties.

Increased premiums would raise costs for food suppliers in Japan, the largest export market for non-biotech soybeans. Other Asian buyers, such as Taiwan and South Korea, also import non-GMO soybeans.

“There is no guarantee that there will be product available on the spot market,” Duran said. He added that “without contracts, no one can guarantee availability.”

China Expected To Increase Soyoil Imports During 2007-08

China’s soybean crushing industry is not capable of raising output sufficiently to meet increasing demand which will see imports of soyoil leap in the 2007-08 season, according to an industry analyst. Oilseeds analyst Oil World has claimed that China’s October soyoil imports in the 2007 to September 2008 season will rise to 2.8 million tonnes from 2.4 million tonnes last season due to a surge in demand and the inability of the domestic producers to keep up.

“The domestic supply situation remains rather critical for vegetable oils,” it said. “In recent weeks the (Chinese) government has urged the industry and trade to step up imports in order to raise domestic supplies.” It added that there were recent large-scale purchases of palm, soy and rapeseed oils but the desired effect of bringing down prices from the current high levels has not yet been accomplished.

China’s imports of soyoil have risen rapidly in the past two years due to its growing population and booming economy and the 2.4 million tonnes of the commodity imported last season were up 58 percent from the 2005-06 season total of 1.51 million tonnes.

Senate Leaders Reach Farm Bill Amendment Agreement

Senate leaders have concluded an agreement that should allow floor action to get underway this week on the stalled 2007 farm bill. The main reason for the impasse up to this point was a disagreement about the number of amendments that would be debated during consideration of the farm bill. Senators have filed more than 250 amendments to the measure, a number that clearly is unmanageable.

Under the agreement worked out between Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), each side of the aisle will be permitted to introduce twenty amendments, not all of which will been to be germane to the farm bill. These could include measures that would alter provisions of the federal estate tax and affect regulations governing commodity markets and their handling of energy-related derivatives. Another issue that has been discussed as a possible farm bill amendment is immigration.

Votes on the amendments will not take place until at earliest December 11, and will likely take several days to complete. Details on the amendments remain unknown because the final list of forty is not yet complete.

The final Senate floor debate on the farm bill, whenever it comes, is expected to be more intense and involved than was the case earlier this year when the House considered the measure.

U.S. Agriculture Exports Set Record

U.S. farm exports during fiscal 2008 are forecast to surge to a record $91 billion, obliterating the previous record of $81.9 billion set just last year, according to USDA. If realized, the 2008 total would be up $7.5 billion from USDA’s August estimate. “This outlook is largely supported by continued strong demand, tight markets and sharply higher prices for grains and oilseeds, and a weaker dollar,” said USDA.

USDA said soybean exports will total $10.4 billion in Fiscal 2008, due to growing demand from China, an increase of $1.9 billion from 2007. Wheat exports were revised higher to $7.5 billion, up $1.1 billion from 2007. The forecast for corn was increased to $10.2 billion from $8.9 billion.

Census: Biodiesel Industry Usage Of Soyoil Continues To Drop

Census fats and oil report showed that the biodiesel industry’s usage of soyoil dropped further to 107,000 tonnes in October from a revised 127,000 tonnes in September. Biodiesel margins continue to erode as soyoil futures have not retreated to the extent that petroleum futures have in the past couple of weeks. Census also revised October soyoil stocks 7,260 tonnes higher to 1.38 million tonnes.

Study Shows Health Benefits For Older Women Who Eat Soy-Based Diet

A Japanese government study found that older women who eat traditional Japanese soy-based foods on a regular basis face lower risks of heart disease. Soybeans have a high amount of isoflavones, a natural source of estrogen similar to the female hormone, the study found. The risk of heart attacks or strokes for a woman who consumed soy at least five times a week was 0.39 compared with 1 for a woman who consumed the least, the study said.

The results were even more striking among women past menopause, with the risk falling to 0.25, said the leader of the study, Yoshihiko Kokubo, chief doctor of preventive cardiology at Japan’s National Cardiovascular Center.

Soy Complex Mostly Lower As Energy Prices Weigh On Market

The soy complex closed mostly lower December 6, reflecting an early setback in energy prices that weighed on the market. Futures across the soy complex then turned higher as the petroleum markets recovered, but were unable to sustain that momentum through the day and closed mostly lower. Speculative funds reportedly were net even in soybean trades and were light sellers of soybean meal and soybean oil January bean futures closed down $0.28, finishing at $403.27; March gained $0.09, closing at $410.70; and May was down $0.73, ending at $413.64. December meal decreased $1.10 closing at $330.25; January was $1.21 lower, finishing at $333.23; and March meal closed down $0.77 ending at $338.96. December oil closed unchanged to finish at $997.58; January was down $1.32, closing at $1006.18; and March was $1.54 lower, closing at $1018.97.