美国大豆协会－每周快报（2007年11月12日）

美国农业部公布最新供需报告

美国农业部公布了１１月份对２００７－２００８年度美国及世界作物产量和供需状况的预测。根据每公顷２．７７吨的预计单位产量推算，美国大豆产量将达到７０６０万吨。大豆库存预计为５７２万吨，这一数字还不到期初库存的一半，理论上已接近供应库存的最低水平。库存下降的原因在于大豆种子的使用量增加了２．７２万吨，这也许意味着２００８年的播种面积会扩大。豆油需求数字有所调整，国内食品业的豆油消费数字下调４．５４万吨，而出口数字则上调４．５４万吨。２００７－２００８年度美国油籽的预估期末库存为６８０万吨。美国油籽预估总产量为８０１０万吨。

２００７－２００８年度全球油籽预估产量为３．９０４亿吨，预估期末库存下调１８０万吨，降至５６３０万吨，下降的主要原因在于巴西和中国的大豆库存有所下降。巴西库存数字下调是因为２００６－２００７年度以及２００７－２００８年度大豆压榨量可能有所上升。２００７－２００８年度全球油籽的预估库存比上一年度下降了２１％。

参议院推翻布什的否决；美国大豆协会对结果表示满意

参议院１１月８日推翻了布什总统对《水资源开发法》的否决，这是布什执政以来国会首次压倒总统否决而通过一项法律。参议院的投票结果为７９票对１４票，远远超过规定的三分之二多数。在参议院投票通过该法案之前，众议院已于１１月６日以３６１票对５４票的结果推翻了总统对一项２３２亿美元拨款法案的否决。布什还曾否决过其它四项法案，其中三项都发生在今年。在此之前，每次否决都顺利生效。

布什１１月２日否决该法案时说，该法案的拨款数额过大，没有将重点放在最紧迫的工程项目上。国会报告中批准的拨款额远远高于众议院提议的１５０亿美元和参议院提议的１４０亿美元。

支持者们表示，国会自２０００年以来还没有颁布过任何水利项目授权法案，新法案应着力解决基础设施项目滞后的问题。

美国大豆协会上周表示，非常高兴看到《水资源开发法》在国会的坚持下获得通过。该法“对大豆销售至关重要，”美国大豆协会总裁约翰∙霍夫曼说。“水路运输是一种将美国大豆运往国内外市场的最经济、最环保的运输方式，”霍夫曼说。美国大豆协会说，美国７５％的出口大豆都要经过密西西比河上游以及依利诺伊河流域，这一水域正是《水资源开发法》拟定的重点改扩建（如新建船闸）区域。

农业法案陷入僵局

参议院多数派领导人海瑞∙雷德（内华达州民主党人）于１１月８日晚些时候退出了农业法案的审议工作，他批评共和党阻碍审议进程。“我们基本上浪费了整个一周时间，”雷德说。他指责共和党人“在审议过程中不予配合。”共和党人说，他们需要的是一种开放的修订过程。

关于修订的数量和范围，民主党和共和党领导人仍需要达成一致。如果双方能在合理的时间内达到一致，那么只要“修订的数量不是太多，” １１月１２日的那一周里仍有足够的时间完成投票工作。如果双方没有就修订达成一致，预计雷德会提出以表决方式结束审议，以便将议题限定于参议员查克∙格拉斯雷（艾奥瓦州共和党人）和拜伦∙道根（北达科达州民主党人）提出的有关“严格”限制补贴额度的修订提议。如果雷德提出以表决方式结束审议，参议院会在１１月１３日进行表决，因为参议院在退伍军人节将休会。如果表决获得通过，审议将被限定在３０小时以内，如果获得一致同意，还可进一步缩短。

另有消息说，参议员帕特∙罗伯兹（堪萨斯州共和党人）表示，参议院农业法案中提出的拨款建议会打乱付款时间，因此也会打乱许多生产者的耕作时间及其它经营的时间。“当出现付款推后、付款时间变化或作物保险费在作物收割前支付的情况时，现金流将令人担忧，”罗伯兹说。“当作物保险额发生变化时，那些公司如果仍在经营，就不得不预留更多储备金。”

罗伯兹认为不应放弃农业法案中执行了几十年的做法，而去帮助那些为生计而奔波的小农户。他指出，“尽管１５％的农民可以得到８５％的（农业项目）付款，但这１５％的农民却可以代表约８５％的农业产量。”

阿根廷上调油籽及谷物出口税

为了提高作物涨价后政府的收入并限制国内食品价格过高上涨，阿根廷将大豆、玉米、小麦的出口税平均提高了５个百分点。阿根廷经济部长米格尔∙佩拉诺说，大豆（阿根廷最大的出口作物）出口税从２７．５％上调到３５％，玉米出口税从２０％上调到２５％，植物油出口税从８％上调到１０％。

“这些措施将促使价格稳定、投资扩大、经济增长，” 佩拉诺说。此外他还说，提高出口成本也是为了抑制国内食品价格过高上涨。

为了确保国内市场供货充足，阿根廷政府对燃料及部分食品进行价格控制，并对出口进行限定。新税率制定后不久就已生效。

大豆类产品期价在美国农业部公布供需报告之前有升有降

由于市场在等待美国农业部次日即将公布的１１月份作物报告，大豆类产品在１１月８日收盘时价格有升有降。尽管石油价格下跌，但投机者仍买入大豆和豆油，卖出豆粕，从而使得豆油期价更加坚挺。１１月份大豆期货价格上升＄１．５６为＄３７７．７２，１月份上升＄１．０１，为＄３８２．５９，３月份上升＄１．１９为３８８．１０；１２月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄３．８６为＄３０６．８８，１月下跌＄３．０９为＄３０８．４２，３月份下跌＄２．４３为＄３１１．８４；１２月份豆油期货价格上升＄１１．２４，为＄９７３．３３，１月份上升＄１０．５８为＄９８３．４７，３月份上升＄１０．５８为＄９９５．３８。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

USDA S&D Report Recap

USDA released its November estimates of the 2007-08 U.S. and world crops, supply and demand. Soybean production is forecast at 70.6 million tonnes, based on an estimated yield of 2.77 tonnes per hectare. Soybean stocks are expected to be 5.72 million tonnes, less than one-half of beginning stocks and near a theoretical minimum pipeline stocks level. The 27,200 tonne addition to seed use made the difference, possibly signaling more 2008 soy acreage. Soyoil demand was adjusted with 45,400 tonnes moved from domestic food use to exports. U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2007-08 are projected at 6.8 million tonnes. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 80.1 million tonnes.

Global oilseed production for 2007-08 is projected at 390.4 million tonnes. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2007-08 are reduced 1.8 million tonnes to 56.3 million tonnes mainly reflecting lower soybean stocks in Brazil and China. Brazil stocks are reduced due to a projected increase in soybean crush for both 2006-07 and 2007-08. Global oilseed stocks for 2007-08 are projected down 21 percent from 2006-07.

Senate Overrides Bush’s WRDA Veto; ASA Satisfied With Outcome

The Senate on November 8 overrode President Bush’s veto of the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA), the first time since Bush he took office that Congress has enacted a law over his objections. The Senate vote was 79-14, considerably over the two-thirds majority required. The Senate vote, which enacted the bill, followed a 361-54 House vote on November 6 to overturn the veto of the $23.2 billion authorization. Bush has vetoed four other bills, three of them this year. Until now, each veto has been sustained.

Bush vetoed the bill November 2, saying it would cost too much and would not give priority to the most urgent Corps projects. The conference report authorized far more spending than either the $15 billion House bill or the $14 billion Senate version.

Noting that Congress has not enacted a water projects authorization bill since 2000, supporters argued that the new law will help address a backlog of overdue infrastructure projects.

The American Soybean Association said last week it appreciates the persistence of Congress to pass the Water Resources Development Act. The legislation “is key to soybean sales,” ASA President John Hoffman said. “U.S. waterways are the most economical and environmentally friendly way to move U.S. soybeans to domestic and foreign markets,” said Hoffman. ASA says 75 percent of U.S. soy exports travel through the upper Mississippi and Illinois river systems, which are set to receive critical improvements – such as new locks – thanks to the WRDA.

Farm Bill Bogged Down

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) pulled the farm bill from the Senate floor late November 8, blasting Republicans for refusing to allow debate to proceed. “We’ve basically wasted the whole week,” Reid said, accusing Republicans of “pouting over process.” Republicans said all they needed was an open amendment process.

Democratic and Republican leaders will still seek an agreement on the number and scope of amendments, and if an accord can be reached within a reasonable amount of time, there could still be enough time the week of November 12 to vote on amendments as long as there are not “too many of them.” If no agreement on amendments is reached, Reid is expected to file a cloture motion to limit debate on the farm bill, likely on the amendment offered by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) to establish “hard” limits on subsidies payments. If Reid files a cloture motion, the Senate would vote on it on Nov. 13 because the Senate is not in session on Veterans’ Day. If successful, debate would then be limited to 30 hours, which can be further reduced by unanimous consent.

In related news, Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), said the funding proposal contained in the Senate farm bill would disrupt the timing of payments and, thus farming and other business operations for a number of producers. “With delayed payments and timing shifts, and paying crop insurance premiums in some cases before a crop is harvested, there will be some cash flow concerns,” said Roberts. “And with the changes in crop insurance reimbursements, those companies, if they stay in business, will have to have more reserves.”

Abandoning a decades-old justification for the farm bill –– helping small family farmers who are struggling to survive –– Roberts pointed out that “while 15 percent of the farmers may get 85 percent of the [farm program] payments, that 15 percent is responsible for around 85 percent of agriculture’s production.”

Argentina Hikes Export Taxes On Oilseeds And Grains

Argentina increased taxes on exports of soybeans, corn and wheat an average of five percentage points to boost government revenue from surging crop prices and limit domestic food inflation. Export levies on soybeans, Argentina’s biggest export crop, jumped to 35 percent from 27.5 percent; corn from 20 to 25 percent; wheat from 20 to 28 percent and oil from 8 to 10 percent, said Economy Minister Miguel Peirano.

“These measures will generate price stability, growth in investments and economic expansion” said Peirano adding that increasing the cost of exports also is designed to reduce domestic inflation.

Argentina’s government implements price controls on fuel and some food items and limits exports to ensure sufficient supply in the local market. The new tax regime took effect immediately.

Soy Complex Mixed Ahead Of USDA S&D Report

The soy complex closed mixed on November 8, as the trade awaited USDA’s November crop report issued the following day. Speculators were buyers of soybeans and soyoil, but sellers of soybean meal, making soyoil the stronger product despite lower petroleum prices. November bean futures closed up $1.56, finishing at $377.72; January gained $1.01, closing at $382.59; and March was up $1.19, ending at $388.10. December meal decreased $3.86 closing at $306.88; January was $3.09 lower, finishing at $308.42; and March meal closed down $2.43 ending at $311.84. December oil closed $11.24 higher to finish at $973.33; January was up $10.58, closing at $983.47; and March gained $10.58, closing at $995.38.