美国大豆协会－国际项目 每周快报
2009年09月21日
出版通知：《大豆出口周报》因编辑人员外出，下周停发一期，十月五日恢复刊行。
南美供应的缺乏刺激着美国大豆的出口预期
由于南美产量和出口量的增长，且其出口大部分在三到八月间出运，美国大豆出口在过去十年间在相当程度上一直都较为集中在（其销售年度的）前期装运。然而，由于南美生产扩张的速度快于其出口能力，美国大豆不得不在其销售年度的上半年同南美剩余的一些大豆供应进行竞争。2007－08年度的九月到二月间，巴西和阿根廷合起来出口了1,130万吨大豆，08－09年度为880万吨。然而，我们预计，今年的九月到二月间，其出口只有360万吨，原因是阿根廷的干旱降低了2009年的作物产量，而巴西的出口进度在其销售年度的上半年如火如荼，使得南美在9月1日的库存降到五年来的最低水平。其结果是在2010年度南美作物在三月份上市前，全球的进口商基本上只能把美国当作唯一的大豆主要来源。
由于今年缺乏南美供应的竞争，一些分析人士预计美国2009－10年度九到二月间的出口量达到异乎寻常的2,780万吨，高于去年的2,380万吨，以及前两年的2,100万吨。很多业内观察人士预测2009－10年度在某段时间内会有特别大量的出口。美国农业部的出口预测开始向这个方向靠拢，但仍有其进行调整的一些方式，在本月的供需报告中，出口量已提高到3,480万吨。
中美贸易争端不太可能影响大豆市场
据道琼斯新闻报告，中美贸易争端上周引起了芝加哥交易所大豆市场的关注，但估计不会对中国需要美国大豆的情况有直接的影响。在华盛顿九月初对中国轮胎进口实施惩罚性制裁之后，上周，中国表明它将限制美国鸡肉和汽车产品的进口。这种对峙提高了人们对其可能影响大豆市场的担心，因为中国在南美作物歉收之后一直在抢购美国大豆。
在干旱削减了阿根廷产量后，中国对美国大豆的需求直线上升。其采购量随着美国上年度作物供应的减少而帮助把CBOT的大豆期货价格推到极高的水平。
考虑到中国对美国大豆的依赖，“很难想像他们会选择（大豆）作为贸易争端的产品，”一位CBOT的交易员对道琼斯新闻说。在2008－09销售年度，中国进口了1,900万吨美国大豆，而上一年为1,370万吨。中国是美国大豆的最大买家。
在相关的报道中，中国预计十月份将进口180万吨大豆，是自2007年二月以来的最低月度进口量，大幅度低于预计的九月份280万吨的进口量，九月份的进口量是中国国家粮油信息中心9月15日提供的估计数。早先大量的进口库存为压榨企业缓冲了原料的压力，而国外产品的价格上扬也使得进口不那么吸引人。该政府智库说，预计十月后进口量会逐步回升，十一月的预计进口量会升至350万吨。
阿根廷农业秘书辞职
（阿根廷）政府计划将农业秘书处改制成一个政府部级机构，卡洛斯·彻披已经辞去农业秘书的职务，他将由布宜诺斯艾利斯副市长胡里安·多明奎兹所取代。彻披已经辞去了其职务，但政府还未接受他的辞呈。
彻披2008年七月上任3，在政府与农民的谈判中起了非常重要的作用。农民们再三要求政府减少农产品出口税，还要求其它的农业援助措施。彻披原来被看作是政府和阿根廷农民之间的调停人，但是就在任上刚刚一年多一点的时候，就大豆税收持续的争论成了两方之间沟通的障碍。
彻披以前是著名的INTA农业技术机构的技术人员。在其辞职信中，彻披表明因“个人的原因”辞职。
预计巴西会进口豆油
巴西是目前为止世界上主要的豆油出口国，但是，上周《油世界》分析师预测说，由于该国急剧增长的生物柴油需求，下个月可能会开始进口豆油。“在巴西，急剧增加的生物柴油生产需求和大豆压榨量的下降，将迫使豆油出口量的减少，在2009年10月到2010年1月间，可能有必要进口豆油，”《油世界》说。
《油世界》说，随着巴西提高了生物柴油在原油中的强制混合量，巴西的生物柴油产量在2009年7月达到最高记录的13.4万吨，比上一年同期上升41％。这就意味着巴西2009年1－7月的生物柴油比上年同期上升了42％，达到71万吨，它说。7月份，豆油占巴西生物柴油原料的81％，其它原料包括动物油脂和棉籽油。这样大量的豆油使用量是继巴西大豆作物2009年年初收获量下降之后出现的。
霜冻可能性减少的情形下，大豆类产品期货价格涨跌不一
本周霜冻的威胁越来越小，大豆类产品期货价格9月17日收市时涨跌互现。大豆市场必将会与比美国农业部目前的预估数更大的作物产量和更大的市场需求相一致。随作物最终产量的大小和对美国大豆及其产品前所未有需求的落实，大豆和豆粕期货价格可能会下滑到今年夏天所下探到的低点。一旦最终作物产量由市场所认可，就有可能出现由需求引领的相当可观的价格上涨，这很容易推动大豆和豆粕期货价格远高于当前的水平。另一方面，豆油期货价格下降的风险和可能的反弹则非常有限，除非原油市场价格大幅上扬，因为豆油期货价格与生物柴油盈利水平的密切关联。十一月大豆期价上涨0.92美元，结于350.16美元；一月期价上涨0.46美元，收于351.46美元；而三月期价下降0.46美元，结于351.08美元。十月豆粕期价涨1.32美元，收于329.59美元；十二月期价降0.77美元，结于323.30美元；而一月豆粕期价收低1.54美元，结于320.22美元。十月豆油期价涨3.75美元，结于761.69美元；十二月期价涨3.97美元，收于770.73美元；而一月期价涨4.41美元，收于779.33美元。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
Publication Note: The Soy Export Weekly Update will not be published next week as the editorial staff will be out of the office for a personal matter.
Publication will resume on October 5.
Lack of South American Supplies Bolsters U.S. Soybean Export Prospects
U.S. soybean exports have been fairly front-loaded during the past 10 years due to the expansion in South American production and exports that are mostly shipped during the March-August period. However, as South American production has expanded faster than its export capacity, U.S. soybeans have had to compete with some remaining South American supplies during the first half of the marketing year. During the September-February period, Brazil and Argentina combined to export 11.3 million tonnes of soybeans in 2007-08 and 8.8 million tonnes in 2008-09. However, this year’s September-February exports are seen at just 3.6 million tonnes as Argentina’s drought-reduced 2009 crop and Brazil’s torrid export pace during the first half of its marketing year have left September 1 South American soybean stocks at their lowest level in 5 years. As a result, world importers are left with the United States as essentially the only major source of soybeans until the 2010 South American crop becomes available around March.
Due to the diminished competition from South American supplies this year, some analysts are projecting U.S. September-February exports at a whopping 27.8 million tonnes in 2009-10, up from 23.8 million tonnes last year and about 21 million the two prior years. Many industry observers have been expecting 2009-10 exports to be particularly large for some time. USDA is beginning to move in that direction, but still has a way to go with its export forecast that was increased to 34.8 million tonnes in this month’s supply and demand report.
U.S.-China Trade Conflict Unlikely To Effect Soybean Market
A U.S.-China trade tiff caught the attention of the Chicago Board of Trade soybean market last week but isn’t expected to have an immediate effect on China’s appetite for U.S. soybeans, according to Dow Jones Newswires. China indicated last week it would restrict U.S. imports of chicken and auto products after Washington slapped punitive sanctions on Chinese tire imports earlier in September. The face-off raised worries about the potential impact on the soybean market because China has been on a U.S. soy buying spree following crop failures in South America.
China ramped up its demand for U.S. soybeans after drought slashed production in Argentina. Its purchases helped push CBOT soybean futures to lofty levels as U.S. supplies from last year’s harvest dwindled.
Given China’s dependence on U.S. soybeans, “it’s difficult to envision they would pick (soy) as a trade dispute item,” a CBOT trader told Dow Jones Newswires. For the 2008-09 marketing year, China imported 19 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans, up from 13.7 million the previous year. China is the top buyer of U.S. soybeans.
In related news, China is expected to import 1.8 million tonnes of soybean in October, the lowest since February 2007 and sharply lower than the 2.8 million tons projected for September, according to estimates provided on September 15 by the China National Grain and Oils Information Center. Ample stocks from earlier imports are providing a buffer for crushers, and rising foreign prices are also making imports less attractive. Imports are expected to pick up again after October, with estimates for November rising to 3.5 million tons, the government think tank said.
Argentine Agriculture Secretary Resigns
Carlos Cheppi has stepped down from the helm of the Agriculture Secretariat, and he will be replaced by Buenos Aires Deputy Julián Dominguez, as the government plans to turn the secretariat into a ministry. Cheppi had already resigned to his post, but the government had not accepted his resignation.
Cheppi took office in July 2008, and he played a very important role in the government’s negotiations with farmers, who have been pressing the government to reduce export levies on agricultural products, among other measures to aid the farming sector. Cheppi originally was seen as a peacemaker between the government and Argentine farmers, but after just over a year on the job, an extended dispute over soy taxes remains a barrier between the two sides.
Cheppi was a former technician of the renowned INTA farming technology agency. In his resignation note, Cheppi argued “personal reasons” for his resignation.
Brazil Seen Importing Soybean Oil
Brazil, until now one of the world’s leading soybean oil exporters, may start importing soyoil beginning next month because of the country’s sharply rising need for biofuel production, oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast last week. “In Brazil, surging requirements for biodiesel production and declining soybean crushings will enforce a reduction in soyoil exports and probably necessitate soyoil imports in Oct. 2009-Jan. 2010,” Oil World said.
Brazil’s biodiesel output reached a record 134,000 tonnes in July 2009, up 41 percent on the year as the country raised compulsory blending of biofuels in fossil diesel, Oil World said. This meant Brazil’s Jan-July 2009 biodiesel output rose 42 percent on the year to 710,000 tonnes, it said. Soyoil contributed 81 percent of Brazil’s biodiesel feedstock in July with tallow and cotton oil making up the remainder. This heavy soyoil use followed the fall in Brazil’s soybean crop harvested in early 2009.
Soy Complex Mixed As Frost/Freeze Becomes Unlikely
The soy complex closed mixed on September 17 as the threat of a frost or freeze this week becomes increasingly unlikely. The soybean market is going to have to come to terms with a much larger crop and much larger demand than USDA currently projects. Depending on how big the crop eventually gets and how quickly the unprecedented demand for U.S. soybeans and products is realized, soybean and meal futures could erode to the point that this summer’s lows are tested. Once the ultimate crop size has been dialed in by the market, there is the potential for a considerable demand-led rally that easily could propel soybean and meal futures well above current levels. Downside risk for soybean oil futures and a potential rebound, on the other hand, are quite limited unless there is a big move in the petroleum markets because of how closely tied soybean oil futures are with biodiesel profitability. November bean futures were up $0.92, finishing at $350.16; January gained $0.46, closing at $351.36; and March was down $0.46, ending at $351.08. October meal increased $1.32, closing at $329.59; December was $0.77 lower, finishing at $323.30; and January meal closed down $1.54, ending at $320.22. October soyoil was $3.75 higher, finishing at $761.69; December was up $3.97, closing at $770.73; and January gained $4.41, closing at $779.33.
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