美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年７月２０日）
美国农业部发布７月份供需报告
根据美国农业部公布的７月份供需报告，２００８－２００９年度大豆延期库存仅为２９９万吨，这可能是美国农业部认为的底线水平。美国农业部将预估压榨量小幅上调１３．６万吨至４５００万吨，将预估出口量上调２７．２万吨至３４３０万吨。但是，这两项数字的上调以及种子用量的小幅上升却被季度库存报告公布后进口量的上升和剩余使用量的下降所抵消。
美国农业部将２００９－２０１０年度的预估延期库存上调１０９万吨至６８０万吨。在６月３０日的播种面积报告中，大豆播种面积比３月份播种意向报告中公布的数字高６０．７万吨，从而导致美国农业部的产量预测上升１７７万吨，但产量预测的上升却在一定程度上被使用量的上升所抵消。
５月份生物柴油产量上升，但豆油使用量略有下降
根据普查局的报告，甲酯（生物柴油的主要原料）生产过程中使用的动植物油总量从４月份下调后的１３．３万吨上升至５月份的１４．３万吨。普查局将４月份甲酯生产中豆油的预估使用量下调４５４０吨至３．８１万吨，５月份再次进行小幅下调。因此，５月份生物柴油产量相较于４月份的增长完全来自其它植物油和动物油。４月份豆油仅占生物柴油原料总用量的２６％，而５月份这一比例为３１％，２００８年的平均比例为５６％。
普查局对５月份生物柴油中豆油的用量预测与行业预测基本一致，豆油基生物柴油的利润率在４、５月份一直处于深度亏损区间，目前已上升到接近盈亏平衡点的水平。
美国油籽加工者协会公布６月份压榨报告
美国油籽加工者协会公布的６月份美国大豆压榨数字为３６２万吨，低于行业预计。在比５月份少一天的情况下，６月份的压榨量低于５月份的３８７万吨，但与去年同期的３６３万吨持平。美国油籽加工者协会公布的豆油库存数字为１３２万吨，比上个月高９．５７万吨。这一数字远高于１２２万吨的行业预测，表明国内豆油消费持续疲软。
杜邦先锋良种公司和Arzeda公司联手生产新一代种子
杜邦和Arzeda宣布了一项技术合作协议，约定共同开发作物新特性，以提高农业生产率。根据该协议，杜邦旗下的先锋良种公司（Pioneer Hi-Bred）将利用Arzeda公司研发的新型酶为大豆、玉米、水稻、棉花、无毒菜籽等在全球农业领域占据重要地位的作物开发新一代种子特性。
“Arzeda公司的工具非常适合我们的基因优化技术，可帮助我们的全球客户开发主要的农业产品，提高生产率，” 负责农业及营养研发的杜邦副总裁约翰·贝德布鲁克（John Bedbrook）说。“我们很乐意在蛋白处理及新式酶研发活动中与行业龙头企业Arzeda合作。”
Arzeda公司将利用其专有的计算蛋白设计技术按客户定制要求设计能够催化特定生物反应的新型酶，这种生物反应对杜邦具有重要商业意义。先锋良种公司将利用其在作物分子生物学和生物技术（包括其专有的特性改良工具基因优化技术）方面的专长，将改良型特性植入种子产品中，以满足全球对农产品的需求。该协议就合作研发的作物特性授予杜邦公司独家所有权。协议条款未予透露。
Arzeda公司的开创性技术融合了化学催化的力度、生物高分子的高度选择性以及计算设计的速度，可以迅速设计并甄选自然界中不存在且目前无法利用传统酶处理手段获得的新型酶。
美国新茬大豆对中国具有吸引力
官方海关数据显示，中国６月份的大豆进口量上升至创纪录的４７１万吨，比５月份高３４％。如此高的进口量与交易商早先的预测一致，这是因为在阿根廷遭受旱灾引起的减产之后，中国压榨企业担心全球供应会趋于紧张，从而开始大举进口。
中国商务部将７月份全国大豆进口预测从之前的３５６万吨上调到４２８万吨。
另外，中国国家粮油信息中心表示，预计未来数周中国将继续大量订购价格相对较低的美国新茬大豆。该中心在一份报告中说，订购量与７月１０日的那一周（该周为２００９－２０１０年度订购了７０万吨大豆）同样高。
中国在未来数周有可能进一步减少订购价格相对较高的老茬大豆，重点订购价格相对较低的新茬大豆，并使用其现有库存。行业分析杂志《油世界》最近在一次报道中说：“我们预计中国在２００９年８、９月份的定购量会大幅下降。由于世界市场的近期期价（交付部位）非常高，中国显然已决定减少本年迄今出于战略原因而积累的创纪录的库存量。
由于中国可能出售大豆储备且美国天气良好，大豆类产品期价下跌
由于中国政府本周将出售５０万吨国储大豆，而且天气状况预计将有利于美国作物，因此大豆类产品在７月１６日收盘时价格下跌。价格的下跌还加剧了投机性出售并缓解了新/老茬大豆之间的价差。由于中国出售部分大豆储备，国内压榨企业对进口大豆的需求可能会下降，但如果储备大豆在价格上竞争不过进口大豆，那么国内企业是否愿意购买储备大豆将存在不确定性。尽管如此，如果美国的天气在８、９月份保持有利，使得大豆单产超过预计，那么大豆及豆粕期价将需要在近期获得大量支持。８月份大豆期货价格下跌＄１６．３５为＄３５８．６１，９月份下跌＄１２．６８为＄３３６．５７，１１月份下跌＄５．３３为３２７．０２；８月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄１９．１８为＄３４０．６１，９月份下跌＄１６．４２为＄３１６．９１，１０月份下跌＄８．８２为＄３００．９３；８月份豆油期货价格下跌７．０５为＄７４５．１５，９月份下跌＄７．０５为＄７４８．６８，１０月份下跌＄７．０５为＄７５２．４３。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
USDA July Supply And Demand Report Recap
In its July supply and demand report, USDA left its 2008-09 soybean carryout forecast at what it likely sees as a minimal level of 2.99 million tonnes. USDA nudged its crush up by 136,000 tonnes to 45 million tonnes and increased exports by 272,000 tonnes to 34.3 million tonnes. However, those changes and a modest increase in seed use were offset with larger imports and a reduction in residual use following the quarterly stocks report.
USDA raised its 2009-10 carryout forecast by 1.09 million tonnes to 6.80 million tonnes. The increase of 607,000 hectares in soybean plantings from the March planting intentions report to the June 30 Acreage report boosted USDA’s production forecast by 1.77 million tonnes, but the production increase was partly offset by usage increases.
Biodiesel Production Up in May, but Soybean Oil Use Slightly Lower
The Census Bureau reported that total usage of fats and oils in methyl ester (mostly biodiesel) production increased to 143,000 tonnes in May from a downwardly revised 133,000 tonnes in April. Census lowered its April estimate of soybean oil use in methyl ester production by 4,540 tonnes to 38,100 tonnes and reported a modest decline in May. Thus, other vegetable oils and animal fats accounted for all of the increase in biodiesel production from April to May. Soybean oil accounted for only 26 percent of the total feedstock usage in biodiesel production during April, compared with 31 percent in May and an average of 56 percent in 2008.
The Census Bureau’s estimate of soybean oil use in biodiesel production for May was in line
with expectations, and margins for producing biodiesel from soybean oil have improved to near breakeven levels since being deeply negative during April and May.
NOPA June Crush Recap
The NOPA U.S. soybean crush for June was reported at 3.62 million tonnes, below trade expectations. With one less day, that was down from the May crush at 3.87 million tonnes but in line with last year at 3.63 million tonnes. The soybean oil stocks were reported at 1.32 million tonnes, up 95,700 tonnes from last month. That was well above trade expectations at 1.22 million tonnes and suggests continuing slowness to domestic soybean oil usage.
DuPont Pioneer Hi-Bred And Arzeda Corp. Partner To Produce Next Generation Seeds
DuPont and Arzeda Corp. have announced a technology collaboration to develop new traits to increase agricultural productivity. Under the agreement, DuPont business Pioneer Hi-Bred will use novel enzymes designed by Arzeda to develop next generation seed traits in crops of worldwide agricultural importance such as soybeans, corn, rice, cotton and canola.
“Arzeda’s tools are a perfect fit with our gene shuffling technology to enable the development of industry-leading products to increase productivity for our customers worldwide,” said John Bedbrook, DuPont vice president - Agriculture & Nutrition Research and Development. “We are pleased to work with Arzeda, the industry leader in protein engineering and designing enzymes with novel activities.”
Arzeda will use its proprietary computational protein design technology to custom-design novel enzymes that catalyze specific biological reactions that are of commercial importance to Pioneer. Pioneer will use its expertise in crop molecular biology and biotechnology, including its proprietary trait enhancing tool-gene shuffling, to incorporate these traits into seed products to meet the global demand for agricultural products. The agreement provides Pioneer with exclusive rights to traits resulting from the collaboration. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed.
Arzeda’s groundbreaking technology integrates the power of chemical catalysis, the high selectivity of biological macromolecules, and the speed of computational design to rapidly design and screen novel enzymes that don’t exist in nature and are currently inaccessible using traditional enzyme engineering approaches.
U.S. New Crop Soybeans Appealing To China
China’s soybean imports in June rose to a record 4.71 million tonnes, up 34 percent from May, official Customs data showed. The large imports were in line with earlier estimates by traders as Chinese crushers had bought voraciously on worries of tight world supplies after drought cut supplies from Argentina.
China’s Commerce Ministry revised upwards its estimate for the country’s soybean imports in July to 4.28 million tonnes from a previous projection of 3.56 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, China’s purchases of the relatively cheap new U.S. soy crop are seen remaining robust in coming weeks, according to the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC). Purchases are remaining as high as the week of July 10 when China booked 700,000 tonnes for the 2009-10 marketing year, CNGOIC said in a report.
China is likely to further cut its purchases of more expensive old crop soybeans and focus buying on the cheaper new crop deliveries in the coming weeks, as well as using up its existing stocks. Analyst Oil World said in a recent report: “We expect a very sharp decline in Chinese soybean imports in August and September 2009. Due to the very high prices on the world market in the nearby (delivery positions), China has apparently decided to reduce some of the record stocks accumulated for strategic reasons so far this season.”
Soy Complex Lower On Potential China Reserve Sales And Favorable U.S. Weather
The soy complex closed lower on July 16 reflecting news that China’s government would sell 500,000 tonnes of soybeans from state reserves this week and expectations for the weather to remain favorable for the U.S. crop. This prompted speculative selling and unwinding of old-crop/new-crop spreads. China’s sale of some soybean reserves may reduce its crushers’ need to import soybeans, but there is uncertainty about their willingness to buy reserve soybeans from the government if they are not priced competitively with import prices. Nevertheless, soybean and meal futures could struggle to find much support in the near term if U.S. weather remains favorable through August and September, allowing soybean yields to exceed expectations. August bean futures were down $16.35, finishing at $358.61; September lost $12.68, closing at $336.57; and November was down $5.33, ending at $327.02. August meal decreased $19.18, closing at $340.61; September was $16.42 lower, finishing at $316.91; and October meal closed down $8.82, ending at $300.93. August soyoil was $7.05 lower, finishing at $745.15; September was down $7.05, closing at $748.68; and October lost $7.05, closing at $752.43.
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