美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年６月２９日）
美国生物柴油产量的下降可能导致美国豆油出口量上升
美国生物柴油产量的下降可能导致未来数月美国豆油出口量上升，因为食用油生产商正在寻找新市场。“由于用于生产生物柴油的豆油数量有所下降，国内豆油价格可能会面临压力，进而促使美国豆油出口量高于预计，”行业分析刊物《油世界》近期报道说。“我们认为２００９年４月至９月（豆油）出口量可能会达到６０万至６５万吨，高于去年同期的５１．６万吨。”
《油世界》断定，由于植物油价格相对于矿物原油处于高位，而且欧盟以美国生物柴油享受生产补贴为由于３月份对其征收惩罚性进口税，因此美国生物柴油产量受到抑制。《油世界》说，美国国内生物柴油消费量在２００９年１月至４月期间下降至５万至６万吨之间，低于去年同期的９万至１０．５万吨。
《油世界》还说，美国生物柴油净出口量在２００９年前４个月同比下降３６％至２７万吨。而在欧盟征收额外进口税之前的２００８年度，出口量则达到了创纪录的１２７万吨。
２００９年１月至４月美国用于生产生物柴油的动植物油数量仅为４８．７万吨，低于去年同期的６８万吨。在今年１月至４月的动植物油总用量中，豆油用量从４３．１万吨下降至１６．４万吨。《油世界》说，减少的用量中有一分部可能会被销往出口市场。美国豆油出口量预计还将受益于巴西和阿根廷竞争力的下降，这两个国家的大豆因旱灾而减产。
分析人士预计２００９年下半年美国豆油出口量将非常可观
由于其它豆油主产国出现产量问题，且可能由此导致价格上涨，美国的豆油出口量在今年下半年可能会“非常可观”。瑞士公司CommoSupply的贸易负责人奥利沃·格罗斯（Olivier Gross）在《大众公志》于伦敦举办的２００９年食用油大会上说，今年阿根廷和巴西因旱灾和管理问题而出现的大豆减产可能有利于美国豆油出口。“由于南美可能无法满足供应需求，美国在２００９年下半年可能会启动规模庞大的（豆油）出口计划，”他说。
《大众公志》报道说，格罗斯列举了美国农业部上周公布的销往“未知目的地”的５万吨豆油，并推测这批豆油可能销往世界最大的食用油进口国中国。
印度交易商最近也表示，由于其传统采购来源南美供应能力下降，他们预计多年来第一批美国豆油即将运抵印度。《大众公志》称，印度是世界第二大植物油进口国。
格罗斯在大会上说，美国大量出口豆油，可能会对食用油价格起到支持作用。“通常，当美国开始出口豆油时，（豆油）价格总会上升，因为美国不是一个大量出口豆油的国家，”他说。
巴西大豆销售量低于２００７－２００８年
分析性刊物《Celeres》６月２２日说，截至６月１９日，巴西２００８－２００９年度的大豆产量已售出７３％，比上一周前提高了一个百分点，但远月交货的现货销量仍低于去年。今年迄今的大豆销量，据《Celeres》预计，为５８２０万吨，进度落后于去年同期的７９％。
由于境外投资大量涌入，巴西雷亚尔与美元之间的汇率从３月份到６月初已上升了２５％。雷亚尔的升值使生产商和出口商在兑换本国货币时遭受盈利损失。但是，最近雷亚尔大幅走弱，同时芝加哥交易所大豆期价也回落，生产商认为这两个变化趋势相互抵消了对收入的影响。
本年度巴西的大豆销售进度始终处于滞后状态，主要原因在于全球金融危机导致去年年底和今年年初信贷不足。农场主和出口商主要依靠贷款进行播种、收割和销售。另外，生产商始终不愿出售现有产品，因为他们相信中国的大豆需求存在潜力，而且在美国大豆库存紧张、阿根廷产量受旱灾影响的情况下，全球供应将受到限制，价格将获得上行支撑。
驳船运量大幅上升
内河流域的谷物和大豆运量继续上升。农民已完成播种，目前正在为秋收而清理库存，因此谷物的驳船运量开始上升。另外，墨西哥湾航线在针对亚洲油籽和谷物的运输方面享有运价优势。
驳船运量通常会在每年的这个时节出现下降，但由于大豆播种延迟且谷物价格诱人，农场主们目前正在通过河流运输削减农场存货。河流船闸通行量通常会在７月中至８月中出现上升。由于密西西比河上游水位上涨，下周通过圣路易斯港的船舶数量将会减少。圣路易斯港对南向行驶的拖船采取日间限行措施，该措施将实施至６月２４日。
通过主要船闸驶往墨西哥湾的驳船预计将在截至８月３１日的２００９－２００９销售年度运送３２８０万吨大豆和谷物，比上一销售年度多１８０万吨，比上个月的预计量多出３０万吨。就２００９－２０１０年度而言，随着谷物出口前景的上升和运费优势的显现，预计驳船运量将上升７３０万吨至４０１０万吨，创下２００２－２００３年度以来的最高纪录。
由于老茬大豆供应紧张，多数大豆类产品期价上升
６月２５日收盘时，多数大豆类产品期价上升。由于美国大豆供应紧张，目前市场明显需要通过绝对价格水平、期货价差以及相对于南美的差价来合理调整使用量，这一态势成为老茬大豆和豆粕期价的主导因素。美国农业部６月３０日的库存报告将就需求是否已受到市场的充分制约详加评述。７月份大豆期货价格上升＄４．０４为＄４３９．４５，８月份上升＄１．６５为＄４１４．１０，９月份下跌＄１．１０为３８６．５４；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄５．２９为＄４３７．９４，８月份上升＄０．８８为＄４０４．３２，９月份下跌＄１．３２为＄３７１．８１；７月份豆油期货价格上升２．２０为＄８０５．５６，８月份上升＄２．２０为＄８０９．０９，９月份上升＄２．４３为＄８２１．８７。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
Decreasing U.S. Biodiesel Production Likely To Increase U.S. Soyoil Exports
A reduction in U.S. biodiesel output is likely to increase U.S. soyoil exports in the next few months as producers of the edible oil seek out new markets. “The decline in usage for biodiesel production will probably pressure domestic soyoil prices, thus allowing larger than expected U.S. soyoil exports,” industry analyst Oil World said in a recent report. “We consider it likely that (soyoil) shipments will reach 600,000 to 650,000 tonnes in April to September 2009, up from 516,000 tonnes a year ago.”
Oil World concludes that high vegetable oil prices compared to crude mineral oil have restrained U.S. biodiesel output along with the EU’s decision in March to impose punitive import duties on U.S. biodiesel because of claims it is produced with subsidies. U.S. domestic biodiesel consumption fell to between 50,000 and 60,000 tonnes a month in the January to April 2009 period, down from 90,000 to 105,000 tonnes monthly in 2008, Oil World said.
Oil World added that U.S. net biodiesel exports fell by 36 percent on the year in the first four months of 2009 to 270,000 tonnes. This followed record exports of 1.27 million tonnes in 2008 before the EU imposed the extra import duties.
The U.S. consumed only 487,000 tonnes of oils and fats for biodiesel production in January to April 2009, down from 680,000 tonnes in January to April 2008. Of this total, January to April 2009 soyoil use fell to 164,000 tonnes from 431,000 tonnes. Some of this will probably be sold in export markets, Oil World said. U.S. soyoil exports are also expected to benefit from reduced competition from Brazil and Argentina, where drought has reduced the size of their respective soybean crops.
Analysts Expects Substantial U.S. Soyoil Exports In Second Half Of 2009
Exports of soyoil from the United States could be “substantial” in the second half of the year due to production problems in the other major producers and this could lead to price rises. Olivier Gross, a trader at Swiss-based CommoSupply, told The Public Ledger’s Edible Oils 2009 conference in London that this year’s slump in soybean production in Argentina and Brazil, due to drought and administrative issues, could benefit U.S. soyoil sales. “The U.S. could have a substantial export (soyoil) export program in the second half of 2009, as South America cannot supply,” he said.
According to a report by the Public Ledger, Gross cited the example of a shipment of 50,000 tonnes to “unknown destinations” announced by the USDA last week and speculated that this volume could be heading to China, the world’s top buyer of edible oils.
Indian traders also said recently that they were expecting the arrival of the first shipment of U.S. soyoil to the country for a number of years due to the lack of availability from South America - the traditional origins for their purchases. India is the world’s second biggest vegetable oil importer, the Ledger reported.
Gross told the conference that the fact that the United States is exporting large volumes is likely to support values of the edible oil. “Usually, when soyoil is being shipped from the United States, the price (of soyoil) usually goes up as the country is not geared towards large exports,” he said.
Brazil’s Soybean Sales Down From 2007-08 Level
Brazil’s 2008-09 soybean crop was 73 percent sold by June 19, up one percentage point from a week earlier, but forward sales continue to lag behind last year, analyst Celeres said on June 22. Sales of the crop, which Celeres estimates at 58.2 million tonnes, are behind the 79 percent of the 2007-08 crop sold ahead by this time last year.
The Brazilian real has jumped 25 percent against the U.S. dollar from March to early June, due to a big influx of foreign investment capital. A stronger real reduces producers and exporters’ earnings when they are converted to the local currency. However, the real has weakened sharply recently as have futures prices for soybeans at the CBOT – trends which producers view as offsetting.
Soybean sales are lagging in Brazil this season due mainly to a lack of credit late last year and in early 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis. Farmers and exporters depend on loans to finance planting, harvesting and sales. Producers have been reluctant to sell, as well, on the belief that resilient Chinese demand for soybeans, tight U.S. soybean stocks and the drought-stricken output from Argentina will limit global supply and support prices.
Barge Movements Surging
The movement of grain and soybeans on the inland river system continues to improve. Grain barge volumes have picked up as farmers completed their planting and are now clearing out storage ahead of this fall’s harvest. Moreover, the Gulf has been enjoying an advantage over the Pacific Northwest to land oilseeds and grain into Asia.
Barge movements are typically slower this time of year, but with late crop planting and attractive grain prices, farmers are pushing inventories out the farm gate and to the river. Usually there is an uptick in river lockings from mid-July through mid-August. Over the next week movements are likely to slow on account of high water on the upper Mississippi River through St. Louis. There are daylight restrictions for southbound tows through the St. Louis Harbor and will remain in effect through June 24.
Soybean and grain barge movements through the key locks for delivery to the Gulf are forecast to end the 2008-09 marketing on August 31 at 32.8 million tonnes, 1.8 million tonnes more than the previous year and a 300 thousand tonne improvement from last month. For 2009-10, with improved grain export prospects and a favorable freight advantage, barge movements are forecast to increase 7.3 million tonnes to 40.1 million tonnes, which would be the highest volume since 2002-03.
Soy Complex Mostly Higher Reflecting Tight Old-Crop Situation
The soy complex closed mostly higher on June 25. The apparent need to ration usage of tight U.S. soybeans through absolute price levels, futures spreads and spreads to South American prices are the dominate drivers of old-crop soybean and soybean meal futures prices. USDA’s stocks report on June 30 will have a lot to say about whether the market has sufficiently restrained demand. July bean futures were up $4.04, finishing at $439.45; August gained $1.65, closing at $414.10; and September was down $1.10, ending at $386.54. July meal increased $5.29, closing at $437.94; August was $0.88 higher, finishing at $404.32; and September meal closed down $1.32, ending at $371.81. July soyoil was $2.20 higher, finishing at $805.56; August was up $2.20, closing at $809.09; and September gained $2.43, closing at $821.87.
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