美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年６月１５日）
美国农业部公布６月份供应/消费报告
６月１０日，美国农业部公布了６月份全球及美国供需预测。由于压榨量和出口量上升２７．２万吨，美国农业部将２００８－２００９年度大豆期末库存数字下调５４．４万吨。从大豆和大豆产品的消费进度和待履约出口量来看，压榨量和出口量的进一步上升已成定局，但美国农业部可能不愿将老茬期末库存数字下调至报告中预测的２９９万吨以下，因为这一数字可能是美国农业部认为的底线，与行业预测一致。由于上年结转库存下降，美国农业部将本年期末库存数字下调至５７２万吨，除此之外，２００９－２０１０年度的供需数字未做任何其它调整。美国期末库存数字的下调成为美国农业部下调全球库存预测的主要原因。
美国农业部将阿根廷的产量数字下调２００万吨至３２００万吨，对其出口数字也做了相应下调。中国２００８－２００９年度的大豆进口数字被上调１３０万吨至３８８０万吨，其增量主要反映在期末库存（减少）中。
市场可能会偏离美国农业部的供需平衡表，因为在市场看来，玉米地改种大豆这一现象可能导致新茬玉米期末库存远远低于２７２０万吨。大豆形势则相反，新增播种面积已使大豆供应前景得到改观，但只有在老茬大豆的紧张局面化解之后才能最终体现。尽管美国农业部的期末库存预测接近甚至高于市场预测，但其对玉米单产及老茬大豆期末库存数字的下调却成为奠定市场上行基调的主要因素。
研究表明生物柴油的可靠性及性能与超低硫柴油相同
普渡大学的一项最新研究表明，使用B２０（填加２０％生物柴油的混合燃料）和使用２号超低硫柴油（目前的标准燃料）的大型卡车拖车在性能上几乎不存在实质差异。“就性能、可靠性和维护成本而言，二者基本在伯仲之间，”主持该项研究的农业及工程学助理教授约翰·卢姆克斯（John Lumkes）说。“唯一的区别在于环境和经济指标。”
该研究对比了使用超低硫柴油和使用B２０的两组卡车，每组由１０辆卡车组成，研究结果发布于《农业应用工程学》刊物。该研究历时一年，所使用的对比卡车配有相同的发动机，研究启动时已行驶里程接近，且研究期限内的行驶里程也基本相同。
B２０在数据上表现出的唯一差异在于，其在维护间隔期内的黏性下降程度略大于超低硫柴油。但卢姆克斯说，即使如此，B２０的黏性仍足以保证发动机部件不致受损。“B２０在需要更换之前，其黏性仍在可接受的范围之内，”他说。
该研究对每组卡车的闲置时间比率、平均速度、发动载荷率及发动机速度等指标进行了追踪，结果发现，每对卡车在每项指标上均表现出接近或相同的数据。
研究结束时，每组１０辆卡车的行驶里程均超过１５０万英里。燃料经济性、燃料测试结果、机油分析及检修维护成本等方面的差异被认为微乎其微。B２０在研究期间的每加仑成本比超低硫柴油高大约１３美分。
卢姆克斯说，他的研究可缓解有关生物柴油影响发动机寿命的顾虑。他说有些发动机厂商不十分了解生物柴油对发动机磨损的影响程度，因此在针对生物柴油用户延长质量保证期时非常谨慎。“该研究表明，使用生物柴油和使用普通商业燃料的发动机不存在明显的性能差异，” 卢姆克斯说。
卢姆克斯还说，B２０的质量也是一个重要因素。研究期间抽样检测的所有B２０均超过全国生物柴油认证委员会的标准。
印第安纳大豆联盟为该研究提供了资金，提供卡车的一家私营公司也为研究经费提供了帮助。
印度恢复进口美国豆油
７年来第一批销往印度的美国豆油在经历了两周延误后终于运抵印度西部一港口。一艘载有４．５万吨毛豆油的船舶上周抵达印度，买主是全球贸易公司肯考帝亚（Concordia）和邦基（Bunge）。
３月２４日印度２０％的进口税一经取消，进口商即在４月份到来之前签订了从南美和美国进口２０万至２５万吨毛豆油的合约。美国农业部预计，印度在３至４月期间购进了逾１０万吨美国豆油。
此次购买美国豆油是２００２年以来的第一次，合约价格为每吨７３０至８３５美元，交付时间为５月中旬。
另据相关消息，印度在中期内不太可能重新对食用毛豆油征收进口税，因为这样做会使价格在亚洲节日集中期到来之前进一步上涨，而节日前夕正在需求有望上升的时节。“我不相信印度政府会对进口植物油重新征收高进口税，”著名食用油分析师兼Godrej国际公司董事道罗布·米斯垂（Dorab Mistry）向Agra-Informa的出版物《大众公志》表示。“农业部长自己也这么说，另外，目前价格已经够高了，征税将使价格更高。”
由于美国老茬大豆供应紧张，多数大豆类产品期价上升
随着套利交易创下新高，美国老茬大豆供应趋于紧张，受其支持，多数大豆类产品在６月１１日收盘时价格上升。尽管玉米地改种大豆的现象可能会使新茬大豆供应形势得到一定缓冲，但由于播种延迟且受到老茬大豆期价飙升的支持，新茬大豆期价可能会表现出不寻常的高风险溢价。７月份大豆期货价格上升＄７．７２为＄４６５．５４，８月份上升＄３．７７为＄４３５．５９，９月份上升＄４．５９为４１３．２７；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１６．０９为＄４７１．７８，８月份上升＄１１．９０为＄４２９．９０，９月份上升＄１１．０２为＄４０３．４４；７月份豆油期货价格下跌９．０４为＄８４２．１６，８月份下跌＄８．８２为＄８４５．６８，９月份下跌＄８．３８为＄８４９．６５。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
USDA’s June Supply/Use Report
On June 10, USDA released its June World and U.S. supply and demand estimates. USDA tightened its 2008-09 U.S. soybean carryout by 544,000 tonnes on 272,000 tonne increases in both the crush and exports. Even larger increases are warranted given disappearance rates and outstanding export sales of soybeans and products, but USDA likely was reluctant to reduce its old-crop carryout below the 2.99 million tonnes that it forecast in the report, which USDA may consider a minimal carryout and was in line with trade expectations. USDA did not make any changes in its 2009-10 balance sheet other than to reduce the carryout to 5.72 million tonnes because of lower carryin stocks. The reduction in the U.S. carryouts accounted for most of the reductions in USDA’s world stocks estimates.
USDA cut the Argentine crop by 2 million tonnes to 32 million tonnes, and similarly lower exports. China’s 2008-09 soybean imports were increased by 1.3 million tonnes to 38.8 million tonnes, which was added mostly to ending stocks.
The market is likely to deviate from USDA’s balance sheets with a shift of acreage from corn to soybeans, which probably puts the new-crop corn carryout a good bit below 27.2 million tonnes in the market’s eyes. Conversely, additional soybean acres make the new-crop soybean supply situation more comfortable, but only after the tight old-crop situation has been resolved. While USDA’s carryout forecasts were in line or larger than market expectations, USDA’s cuts in the corn yield and the old-crop soybean carryout are features that could set the tone for higher markets.
Study Concludes That Biodiesel’s Reliability And Performance On A Par With Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel
A new Purdue University study shows that there is almost no statistical performance difference in semitrailer trucks using B20, a 20-percent blend of biodiesel, and No. 2 ultra-low sulfur diesel, the current standard. “In terms of performance, reliability and maintenance costs, it was basically a wash,” said John Lumkes, the assistant professor of agricultural and biological engineering who led the study. “The only differences are environmental and economic.”
The study, which compared two 10-vehicle truck fleets using the ultra-low sulfur fuel and B20, was released in the journal Applied Engineering in Agriculture. Trucks used for comparisons in the yearlong study had the same engines, similar miles already on them at the start and drove nearly the same number of miles over the year.
The only statistical difference related to the B20 was that it lowered the oil viscosity between maintenance intervals in engines slightly more than the ultra-low sulfur diesel. But even so, Lumkes said the oil still had sufficient viscosity so as not to damage engine parts. “They were still within the range of what is acceptable before you need an oil change,” he said.
The study followed each fleet’s idle time percentage, average speed, engine load percentage and engine speed. Each pair of trucks had close to the same statistics in each category.
At the end of the study, each fleet of 10 trucks had driven more than 1.5 million miles. Differences in performance based on fuel economy, fuel test results, engine oil analysis, and service and maintenance costs were considered minute. B20 cost about 13 cents more per gallon during that time than the ultra-low sulfur diesel.
Lumkes said his study could ease concern about the effect biodiesel has on engine durability. He said some engine manufacturers are wary about extending warranties to those who use biodiesel because not enough has been known about how the biodiesel affects engine wear. “This shows that there is no observable difference in performance of engines using biodiesel versus the more common commercial fuel,” Lumkes said.
Lumkes added that the quality of the B20 also is an important factor. All the fuel sampled during the study exceeded the National Biodiesel Accreditation Commission standards.
The Indiana Soybean Alliance provided funding for the research, and a private company that provided the trucks also helped fund the study.
Imported U.S. Soyoil Returns To India
The first cargo of U.S. soyoil to arrive in India for seven years has landed at a port in the west of the country after a delay of two weeks. A vessel carrying 45,000 tonnes of crude soyoil arrived in India arrived last week and was bought by global trading firms Concordia and Bunge.
After India scrapped a 20 percent import tax on March 24, importers had contracted 200,000 tonnes to 250,000 tonnes of crude soya oil till April from South America and the United States. The USDA estimated India bought over 100,000 tonnes of U.S. soya oil in the March to April period.
The first purchases from the United States since 2002, were contracted at $730 to $835 a tonne for delivery in mid-May.
In related news, India is very unlikely to re-introduce import duties on crude edible oils in the medium term as it will send local prices even higher ahead of the Asian festival season, when demand is expected to increase. “I do not believe the Indian government will re-introduce higher import duties on vegetable oil imports,” Dorab Mistry, a leading edible oil analyst and director of Godrej International, told Agra-Informa’s publication The Public Ledger. “The agriculture minister has himself said so and besides, prices are now high enough and duty would raise them further.”
Soy Complex Mostly Up On Tight U.S. Old Crop Supplies
The soy complex mostly higher on June 11 reflecting support from tight old-crop U.S. supplies as the inverses traded to new highs. Although the new-crop soybean supply situation likely will gain some cushion from a shift of acreage from corn, new-crop soybean futures may reflect an unusually large risk premium because of planting delays and support from surging old-crop futures. July bean futures were up $7.72, finishing at $465.54; August gained $3.77, closing at $435.59; and September was up $4.59, ending at $413.27. July meal increased $16.09, closing at $471.78; August was $11.90 higher, finishing at $429.90; and September meal closed up $11.02, ending at $403.44. July soyoil was $9.04 lower, finishing at $842.16; August was down $8.82, closing at $845.68; and September lost $8.38, closing at $849.65.
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