US Soybean Export Council

美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年６月８日）

普查局公布４月份压榨报告

普查报告表明，３月至４月的日均大豆压榨量出现上升，这种情况在过去２５年中仅出现过两次。增长似乎由两方面因素引起，一是豆粕出口迅猛，二是截至４月底豆粕库存已累积至３８．３万吨。尽管目前豆粕出口开始减速，但由于待履约出口量达到纪录高点，且压榨利润具有吸引力，因此只要今年夏季后半阶段现货大豆不出现供应紧张状况，压榨节奏将不会明显放慢。豆粕库存高于预计。４月份的国内豆粕消费量比去年同期下降８％，比５年来的同期平均水平低４％。

普查局将４月份的豆油库存数字上调１．１３万吨至１４３万吨，近一步接近于美国油籽加工者协会公布的数字。３月份用于生产甲酯（生物柴油的主要原料）的动植物油数量上调９０７０吨至１１．２万吨，４月份的则定为１３．６万吨。４月份用量的上升似乎来自动物油，因为豆油用量从３月份上调后的４．６７万吨下降至４月份的４．２万吨。豆油在４月份生物柴油产量中仅占３１％，表明豆基生物柴油利润状况不佳。４月份用于传统非生物柴油的豆油数量比去年同期下降了１２％，创１０年来月度最低纪录。

俄勒冈州的B２强制令议案获得州参议院委员会通过

俄勒冈州一个主要的参议院委员会最近通过了一项议案，要求本州零售加油站自８月１日起每出售一加仑柴油必须填加２％的生物柴油。委员会管理人员贝丝·赫佐（Beth Herzog）说，参议院环境及自然资源委员会以３票赞成、１票反对、１票弃权的结果同意上报该议案（编号为HB３４６４A）。

赫佐说，该议案经过少许改动后获得通过，议案中提到，“从目前有关其它可再生柴油的意向来看，其它可再生柴油的市场和渠道将在两年内成形，届时俄勒冈州可能会针对其它可再生柴油出台相关法规。”

该议案目前已交由参议院表决，之后将交由众议院审议。如果获得通过，参众两院议案之间的差异将通过委员会会议进行处理，处理后交由俄勒冈州州长泰德·库伦戈斯基（Ted Kulongoski）签署。

鉴于上述程序，赫佐不愿提供该议案的表决时间，而立法机关将于６月下旬进入休会期。

根据该拟定立法，州农业厅一旦确定本州生物柴油产量已从７００万加仑上升到１５００万加仑，生物柴油的强制填加比例将上调到５％（B５）。该议案表示，在达到这一目标且将生物柴油标准提升至B５时，俄勒冈州将向交易商及产品营销商发出通知。

农业团体就气候法案发表意见

根据众议院农业委员会６月４日发布的问卷调查结果，多家农业及林业团体均向该委员会表示，国会通过的任何气候立法均不应对农场和林地提出减排要求。该委员会３月份向４００多家单位发出调查问卷，以收集各种不同的反馈意见，供国会在处理气候变化时衡量。委员会最终收到２００多份答卷，合计２５００多页。一些答卷者给出的部分建议如下：

  1. 农业应免于上限约束。
  2. 农业领域为碳截留而付出的努力应予奖励（补偿）。
  3. 农场主已采取的碳截留举措应得到补偿。
  4. 美国农业部在核查方面应发挥关键作用。
  5. 不应为提供碳截留而使土地退出生产。
  6. 贫困居民和农村居民可能因面临能源成本上涨而需要更多援助。

 

尽管大部分答卷者反对管制农场和林地的排放量，但许多人表示，农业和林业领域采取的排放抵消措施应纳入法案。美国农田信托表示，农业和林业“可成为相对广泛的温室气体低成本减排来源，”而且通过抵消措施可实现“大量低成本”减排。问卷中提及的农业相关抵消实例包括免耕直播及种植树木。

美国大豆协会呼吁对气候变化采取“谨慎方式，”以便确保“我们在投入性业务和加工领域所依赖的国内农业生产者和加工企业以及运输行业不致处于相对于竞争对手的劣势地位。”美国大豆协会认为碳排放管制和交易体系的不利影响对美国农业“危害极小。”

美国农场主联盟表示，“碳排放管制和交易体系的灵活性为温室气体的实际减排带来了最大希望，同时又尽最大可能地限制了气候法规导致的能源成本总体上涨。”该联盟还提出农业排放抵消措施，并呼吁取消对农业和林业的上限约束。

美国农业局联合会的鲍勃·斯道曼说，该联合会的政策立场是，国会不应征收碳税，碳排放管制和交易体系应基于自愿。该联合会表示，农业和林业不应纳入碳排放削减计划。

大豆类产品期价上升；老茬大豆供应紧张可能导致价格波动　　

６月４日收盘时大豆类产品期价上升。老茬大豆的紧张态势为大豆类产品期价的波动提供了舞台，投资商对老茬大豆高涨的兴趣以及对通货膨胀的恐惧正在加剧价格的波动。由于中国的压榨利润将在高价大豆到货后转入负值区间，且南美的基差开始下降，因此，有可能这些因素中有不少的因素已经开始在合理调整使用量方面发挥作用。７月份大豆期货价格上升＄１７．６４为＄４５１．９４，８月份上升＄１５．０６为＄４３２．８４，９月份上升＄１３．４１为４０９．８７；７月份豆粕期货价格上升＄２１．４９为＄４３９．８２，８月份上升＄１７．３１为＄４１２．４８，９月份上升＄１５．２１为＄３８９．８８；７月份豆油期货价格上升２４．０３为＄８８９．３４，８月份上升＄２３．８１为＄８９２．８６，９月份上升＄２４．０３为＄８９６．８３。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

April Census Crush Recap

The Census soybean crush reflected an increase in the daily crush rate from March to April that has occurred only 2 other times in the last 25 years. This increase appeared to be driven by a robust soybean meal export pace and an accumulation of soybean meal stocks to 383,000 tonnes at the end of April. While soybean meal export shipments have slowed, record outstanding export sales and attractive crush margins suggest a moderate easing of the crush pace until the lack of physical soybean supplies constrains the crush latter this summer. Soybean meal stocks were larger than expected. April soybean meal domestic disappearance was 8 percent below last year and 4 percent below the 5-year average.

The Census Bureau revised up April soybean oil stocks by 11,300 tonnes to 1.43 million tonnes – more in line with the NOPA-reported stocks. Fats and oils used in methyl ester (mainly biodiesel) production was revised up by 9,070 tonnes to 112,000 tonnes for March and pegged at 136,000 tonnes for April. The April increase appeared to come from animal fats as soybean oil usage declined from an upwardly revised 46,700 tonnes for March to 42,000 tonnes during April. Soybean oil accounted for just 31 percent of April’s biodiesel production, reflecting the poor margins for soybean oil-based biodiesel. Soybean oil usage during April for traditional, non-biodiesel purposes was 12 percent below the previous year and the lowest for any month in over a decade.

Oregon’s B2 Mandate Bill Progresses Through State Senate Committee

A key Oregon state senate committee recently approved a bill that will mandate a 2 percent biodiesel blend in every gallon of diesel sold at retail stations in the state starting August 1. The Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee voted 3 to 1 in favor of the bill, with one abstention to allow HB3464A to advance from the committee, said Beth Herzog, a committee administrator.

Herzog said the bill passed after minor amendments, including one that says, “Given the interest in other renewable diesel, it is anticipated that a market for, and the means for production of, other renewable diesel to be established within two years, at which time Oregon may adopt appropriate regulations of other renewable diesel.”

The biodiesel bill now heads to the Senate floor for a vote before being sent to the House for consideration. If passed, differences between the House and the Senate versions of the bill would be ironed out by a committee conference before the legislation is sent to Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski for his signature.

Given these hurdles, Herzog wouldn’t offer a timeline for when the bill would be voted on, but the legislature is scheduled to break for the summer in late June.

Under the legislation, the biodiesel mandate would climb to 5 percent once the state Department of Agriculture determines that production of biodiesel in the state has reached 15 million gallons, up from the current 7 million gallons. The bill says the state will send notices to dealers and product marketers when this target is reached and the mandate increases to B5 diesel.

Ag Groups Comment On Climate Bill

Agriculture and forestry groups told the House Agriculture Committee that any climate legislation Congress passes should not impose emissions-reduction requirements on farms and forests, according to the results of a questionnaire released June 4 by the panel. The committee submitted questionnaires in March to over 400 organizations to gather information on different options being weighed by Congress to address climate change. The panel received more than 200 responses. The responses total more than 2,500 pages. Some of the recommendations listed by several responders:

  • Agriculture should be exempted from caps.
  • Agriculture should be rewarded (paid) for carbon sequestration efforts.
  • Farmers should get paid for actions they are already taking that sequester carbon.
  • USDA should play a key role in verification.
  • Land should not be taken out of production to provide carbon sequestration.
  • Poor and rural residents may need additional assistance since they will face higher energy costs.

While most of the responses opposed regulating emissions from farms and forests, many said offsets from agriculture and forestry should be included in the bill. Agriculture and forestry “can serve as the source for relatively plentiful low-cost sources of greenhouse gas emission reductions” and could provide “plentiful and low-cost” emissions reductions through offsets, according to the American Farmland Trust. Examples of agriculture-related offsets mentioned include practices such as no-till farming or tree planting.

The American Soybean Association called for a “cautious approach” on climate change to ensure “U.S. agricultural producers and the industries that we depend on for inputs, processing, and transportation are not disadvantaged relative to our competitors.” The group views a cap-and-trade system as “the least harmful” for U.S. agriculture in terms of adverse impacts.

The National Farmers Union said that “the flexibility of a cap-and-trade program holds the most promise in making actual reductions in GHG emissions while minimizing, to the extent possible, overall energy cost increases resulting from climate legislation.” It also called for agricultural offsets and for excluding agriculture and forestry from the cap.

Bob Stallman of the American Farm Bureau Federation said the group’s policy is that Congress should not enact a carbon tax and that a cap-and-trade system should be voluntary. Agriculture and forestry should not be covered under a carbon-reduction program, the Farm Bureau said.

Soy Complex Higher; Tight Old Crop Supplies Could Lead To Price Volatility

The soy complex closed mostly higher on June 4. The tight old-crop situation has set the stage for volatile price action for the soybean complex and speculator’s heightened interest in commodities and fear of inflation are adding to it. With China’s crushing margins are poised to become negative upon the arrival of higher-priced soybeans and the drop in the South American basis, it is possible that many of the pieces are in place to ration usage. July bean futures were up $17.64, finishing at $451.94; August gained $15.06, closing at $432.84; and September was up $13.41, ending at $409.87. July meal increased $21.49, closing at $439.82; August was $17.31 higher, finishing at $412.48; and September meal closed up $15.21, ending at $389.88. July soyoil was $24.03 higher, finishing at $889.34; August was up $23.81, closing at $892.86; and September gained $24.03, closing at $896.83.

 

周报图表