美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年５月１１日）
阿根廷大豆产量低于预期，今年秋季全球可能更加依赖美国大豆
最近有传闻说阿根廷的大豆产量可能低至３１００万吨，而布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所的预测是３４００万吨。由于阿根延产量大幅下降，且阿根廷和巴西又保持强劲出口势头，因此截至９月１日的南美大豆库存预计会比去年下降１０００万吨，降至５年来的最低水平。南美大豆产量的锐减可能会在今年秋冬季节严重制约巴西和阿根廷的大豆出口，导致全球对美国大豆的依赖达到近１０年来的最高程度。
由于阿根廷的潜在产量很小，其大豆出口可能会在两三个月后开始下降，如果中国继续保持旺盛的进口需求，那么今年夏末可能会出现全球性大豆短缺。美国大豆出口可能会因老茬大豆库存紧张而受限。巴西如果继续保持空前的出口进度，则有望填补需求缺口，但这样会使南美的供应量进一步下降，从而使２００９－２０１０年度美国的出口前景更加看好。目前的需求态势表明，２００８－２００９年度美国的延期库存正趋于极度紧张，２００９－２０１０年度美国大豆的供需状况极有可能达到老茬大豆预期的紧张程度。
美国环保署新公布的排放量规则对生物柴油提出严格要求
根据美国环保署上周公布的规则，豆基生物柴油将无法达到降低温室气体排放量的要求。行业官员表示，这样的规则将使他们不可能生产出足够的燃料，以达到２０１２年１０亿加仑生物柴油的强制用量标准。
为了达到年度目标，２００７年能源法规定，生物柴油必须具备比常规柴油多减排５０％温室气体的特性。据环保署目前的评估，豆基生物柴油的减排量仅达到２２％。
但是，艾奥瓦州立大学经济学家布鲁斯·巴布库克（Bruce Babcock）说，如果将豆基生物柴油与动物脂肪或废弃油脂制成的生物柴油混合，则有可能达到法定要求。根据环保署的分析，脂肪或油脂制成的生物柴油不属于粮食作物，因此其温室气体排放量明显低于豆基生物柴油。环保署称，油脂制成的生物可将碳排放量降低８０％。
玉米地带的降雨使驳船运输进度放慢；大豆运输进度快于去年
最近密西西比河上游玉米地带的降雨导致河流水位迅速上升。密西西比河上游和伊力诺依河许多河段的水位都在不断上涨，包括Peoria、Beardstown、Burlington等在内的许多地方已达到甚至超过洪水水位。但是，目前正是全年水位的最高峰时段。面对水位的高涨，美国海岸护卫队、陆军工程兵部队及航运业发布了一份《安全指导意见》，该意见将对航运条件以及拖船运营、停用、配置及穿越不同河段的方式产生影响。今后两三周运输及装船进度将会放慢。
另外，谷物驳船的运输情况表示，货运量截至４月始终保持可观水平。即使目前的水位上涨导致今后对墨西哥湾的谷物运输进度放慢，当前的运量预计也将基本达到每年同期的平均水平。谷物运量受到大豆的支撑。４月的大豆运量已达７９．１万吨，是２００２年（当年四月的运量为８０万吨）以来该月份的最高运量。目前大豆运量比去年同期高出１２０万吨，达到近６００万吨。
阿根廷大豆行业因使用除草剂草甘膦而面临起诉
某环保团体以一位科学家的初步研究为依据，呼吁对阿根廷广泛使用的除草剂下达临时禁令。这一呼声使人们对阿根廷规模庞大的大豆行业感到担心，并导致政府内部出现意见分歧。阿根廷环保律师协会４月份向阿根廷最高法院提出上诉，要求对草甘膦实施禁令。草甘膦是一种用于转基因大豆的除草剂，该除草剂极大地促进了大豆单产，从而带动了阿根廷大豆行业的蓬勃发展。
诉状中引用了布宜诺斯艾利斯大学胚胎学教授兼国家科技委员会研究员安德烈斯·卡洛斯科（Andres Carrasco）在一项未发表的研究中有关草甘膦对人体潜在危害的论述。卡洛斯科在国防部也有任职，国防部最近已下令禁止在其租赁给农户的土地上播种抗草甘膦型转基因大豆。
面对农场领域的强烈反对，科技部部长利诺·巴拉诺（Lino Baranao）已出面就该项研究为政府开脱。他向当地媒体表示，政府并未授权开展此项研究，而且该研究尚未经过科研部门的审核。
阿根廷的大豆播种面积超过１７００万英亩，占全国农业耕地的一半，而很大一部分大豆为抗草甘膦的转基因品种，草甘磷可以直接向大豆作物喷洒，而不造成伤害。
农艺工程师学院位于科尔瓦多省，学院的里卡多·威斯（Ricardo Weiss）说，如果不使用草甘膦，就只能使用另外三种除草剂。“原来使用一种除草剂，现在必须使用三种。原来只需投入一次，现有需要投入三次，因此所造成的污染更大，”他说。
由于中国需求可能下降，大豆类产品期价下降
有传闻说中国已取消或推迟了订购的部分大豆，而且豆价已达到中国可以通过出售储备大豆而获利的水平，受这一传闻的影响，大豆类产品在５月７日收盘时价格下跌。由于市场担心中国在几个月的大量进口之后可能会出现大豆进口需求下降，老茬大豆及豆粕合约面临显著压力，老茬大豆与新茬大豆之间的差价从上周的最高落差开始回缩。由于对中国及其它一些国家的大豆出口保持强劲，且压榨利润具有吸引力，老茬大豆的供需状况显得极为紧张。尽管中国进口节奏的放慢可能会缓解供应压力，但分析人士预计，由于美国及南美供货不足，且近几个月已向中国发出大量供货，因此今后供货进度将明显放慢。５月份大豆期货价格下跌＄５．８８为＄４１１．１６，７月份下跌＄５．８８为＄４０４．９１，８月份下跌＄５．１４为３９０．５８；７月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄０．３３为＄３９５．４０，８月份下跌＄３．６４为＄３７６．６６，９月份下跌＄２．３１为＄３５７．４８；７月份豆油期货价格下跌３．９７为＄８４８．１１，８月份下跌＄４．４１为＄８５４．９４，９月份下跌＄４．１９为＄８５８．６９。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
Smaller Then Expected Argentine Soybean Crop Could Lead To Global Dependence On U.S. Soybeans In The Fall
There has been talk recently that Argentina’s soybean crop may be as low as 31 million tonnes compared with the most recent Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s forecast of 34 million tonnes. The dramatic shortfall in the Argentine crop and strong export programs of both Argentina and Brazil are seen drawing down September 1 South American soybean stocks nearly 10 million tonnes from last year, to the lowest level in 5 years. Depleted South American supplies could severely constrain soybean exports out of Brazil and Argentina this fall and winter, leaving the world dependent on U.S soybeans to an extent not seen for nearly a decade.
Given Argentina’s potentially small crop, its export program likely will be winding down in a couple of months, which may leave the world short on soybeans later this summer if China’s import demand continues to be high. U.S. soybean exports could be limited by tight old-crop stocks. Brazil could fill the gap if it continues to export at an unprecedented pace, but this would further deplete South American supplies and boost 2009-10 U.S. export prospects even higher. Ongoing demand developments indicate that the 2008-09 U.S. soybean carryout is on track to be extremely tight, and there is a distinct possibility that the 2009-10 U.S. soybean balance sheet could be just as tight as the old-crop situation is expected to be.
New EPA Emissions Rules Tough On Biodiesel
Soy-based biodiesel won’t meet requirements for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, under rules released by the Environmental Protection Agency last week. Industry officials say the rules could make it impossible for them to produce enough fuel to fill mandates for biofuel usage that reach 1 billion gallons a year by 2012.
To qualify toward the annual targets, the 2007 energy law says biodiesel must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent compared with conventional diesel. The EPA is crediting biodiesel made from soybean oil with only a 22 percent reduction.
However, Iowa State University economist Bruce Babcock said it may be possible to meet the law’s requirements by combining soy-based biodiesel with biodiesel made from animal fats or waste grease. Under the EPA analysis, biodiesel from fats or grease has a much smaller footprint than soy biodiesel because those feedstocks aren’t food crops. According to EPA, grease-based biodiesel would reduce carbon emissions by 80 percent.
Rains In Corn Belt Slow Barge Movement; Soybean Movements Ahead Of Last Year’s Pace
Recent rains across the upper Mississippi River area of the Corn Belt has led to fast rising river stages. Waters are rising across much of the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers with many locations at or above flood stage including Peoria, Beardstown, Burlington and others. However, this is the time of year water levels typically are at their highest. In response to the high water situation, the Coast Guard, Army Corps of Engineers and the navigation industry issued a Safety Advisory that impacts navigation conditions, how tows operate, lay up, are configured and traverse various river segments. This will slow movements and loadings over the next couple of weeks.
Meanwhile, grain barge movements have demonstrated decent volumes through April. Even though the current high water event will slow grain movement to the Center Gulf, movements are projected to be about equal to average volumes for this time of year. Movements are supported by soybeans that ended April at 791 thousand tonnes, the highest total for the month since 2002 when lockings totaled 800 thousand tonnes. Soybeans are running 1.2 million tonnes ahead of last year’s pace at nearly 6 million tonnes.
Argentine Soy Industry Faces Lawsuit On Use Of The Herbicide Glyphosate
An environmental group’s push to temporarily ban a widely used herbicide in Argentina, citing a scientist’s preliminary study, has sparked concern in the country’s huge soy industry and generated disagreement within the government. The Environmentalist Lawyers Association of Argentina filed suit in April before the Argentine Supreme Court, seeking a ban on glyphosate, a weed killer used with genetically modified soybeans that has helped fuel Argentina’s soy boom by dramatically boosting yields.
The lawsuit cited potential health dangers of the herbicide signaled in an unpublished study by Andres Carrasco, embryology professor at the University of Buenos Aires and researcher at the National Scientific and Technical Research Counsel. Carrasco also holds a post at the Defense Ministry, which recently banned planting of genetically modified glyphosate-resistant soy on lands it rents to farmers.
With the farm industry up in arms, Science and Technology Minister Lino Baranao moved to distance the government from the study. He told local media the study was not commissioned by the government and had not been reviewed by scientific peers.
More than 17 million acres, half of Argentina’s agricultural land, is planted with soy, much of it genetically engineered to be resistant to glyphosate so the herbicide can be sprayed on the crop without harming the soy plants.
Ricardo Weiss of the Agronomist Engineers College, in Cordoba province, said that the only replacement for glyphosate is to use three other herbicides. “Instead of using one product, you have to apply three times. Instead of spending once, you spend three times, and it pollutes more,” he said.
Soy Complex Lower On Possible Slowing Of Chinese Demand
The soy complex closed lower on May 7 reflecting rumors that China had cancelled or delayed some soybean cargoes and that soybean prices had reached levels that would allow China’s soybean reserves to be sold at a profit. Concerns that China’s soybean import demand may be waning following several months of large shipments to China weighed particularly on old-crop soybean and soybean meal contracts and the oldcrop/ new-crop inverses narrowed from new high made earlier last week. The old-crop balance sheet looks to be extremely tight given the continued strong export sales of soybeans to China as well as other destinations and attractive crush margins. While a slow down in China’s import pace would ease the supply squeeze, analysts project a marked slowing because of insufficient U.S. and South American supplies and large shipments to China in recent months. May bean futures were down $5.88, finishing at $411.16; July lost $5.88, closing at $404.91; and August was down $5.14, ending at $390.58. July meal decreased $0.33, closing at $395.40; August was $3.64 lower, finishing at $376.66; and September meal closed down $2.31, ending at $357.48. July soyoil was $3.97 lower, finishing at $848.11; August was down $4.41, closing at $854.94; and September lost $4.19, closing at $858.69.
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