US Soybean Export Council

美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年４月２０日）

研究人员希望低脂肪转基因豆油能获得市场认可

因市场要求食用油不含反式脂肪而遭受了数年责难之后，大豆种植者和加工企业可能已找到解决办法。据美联社报道，先锋良种公司（Pioneer Hi-Bred）已研出一种能够用来加工无反式脂肪豆油的大豆，这种豆油可用于速食店和快餐企业。研究人员表示，这种豆油有望于２０１０年投放市场，并２０１８年全面上市。

通常，豆油需要经过氢化处理才能在油炸速食等高温食品中保持稳定性。氢化处理会增加脂肪含量。但是，通过这种经过基因处理的大豆，研究人员说，他们可能已找到一种确保油炸食品重新使用豆油的方法。这对速食店、大豆种植者及美国最大产豆州艾奥瓦而言无疑是重大消息。

美国农业部公布新的销售援助贷款规定

美国农业部上周表示，在计算小麦、饲料谷物、豆类作物、油籽、羊毛、马海毛和蜂蜜的无追索权销售援助贷款偿还利率和贷款差额补贴利率时，农业部将开始采用一套经过改进的更加稳定的系统。“新的计算方式将缓解还贷利率的波动性，”农业部长汤姆·维尔萨克说。“这一决定抑制了市场日常波动对还贷利率的影响，并为那些已获得销售援助贷款和贷款差额补贴的生产者提供了更多确定性。”

根据２００８年《农业法案》，维求萨克有权制定还贷利率，还贷利率可按贷款利率加利息和基于以下两者中较低者的价格来计算：１）过去３０天的平均市价或２）农业部长制定的其它方式。

对于小麦、玉米、谷物、高粱、大豆、大麦、燕麦、无毒菜籽、亚麻子和葵花籽，从２００９年４月１５日起，美国农业部下属商品信贷公司（Commodity Credit Corporation）将根据前３０天的平均市价决定并公布每天的还贷利率。同时，商品信贷公司每天还将根据前５天的市价公布还贷利率。这一方式将取代目前以前一天市价为依据的利率计算方式。这一有效的替代性还贷利率将以３０天平均价和５天平均价之间较低者为准。

基于３０天平均价的方式将反映３０天内作物的所有终端市场动态均价，并按适用的国内贷款利率和县级贷款利率进行调整。基于５天平均价的方式将反映５天内适用的终端市场动态均价，并按适用的县际差异和终端调节进行调整。

维尔萨克说，新的还贷方式将最大程度地降低罚没风险、商品信贷公司库存积压、商品信贷公司仓储成本、市场阻力以及州际和县际利益差异。

目前，县级还贷利率依据的是每日公布的本县商品价格，在发放贷款时还将根据相较于无追索权销售援助贷款的溢价或折扣进行调整。

Abiove：亚马逊地区的大豆播种禁令限制大豆播种面积

巴西植物油行业协会（Abiove）上周说，由于亚马逊生态区实施了大豆播种禁令，亚马逊毁林区域内的大豆播种数量得到有效控制。Abiove说，在视察过的逾１５万公顷亚马逊生态区中，大豆播种面积约为１３９６公顷。亚马逊生态区占地４．１９亿公顷，横跨９个州的５４９个镇。

此次视察是巴西大豆禁令的一个实施环节，主要贸易公司已同意自２００６年起不再购买毁林区域种植的大豆。尽管去年该地区没有发现大豆，但Abiove说，今年一些独立的技术团队发现了较大面积的大豆播种区。“我认为大豆禁令等规约对毁林面积的明显下降发挥了积极作用，”巴西环境部长卡洛斯·明克（Carlos Minc）在一次新闻发布会上说。

亚马逊营区协调员保罗·艾德里奥（Paulo Adario）说，视察结果表明，那些企图逃避禁令的农户最终将以失去盈利和市场入径的形式付出代价。

尽管价格和库存均处于高位，但印度植物油进口量仍出现上升

尽管国际价格上涨且作为世界第二大进口国的印度又呈现库存上升之势，但印度的植物油进口量仍在上升。印度炼油者协会表示，３月份印度从国际市场进口了６０．９５５３万吨食用油和３．１５８８万吨非食用油。６４．１１４１吨的进口总量意味着同比增幅达到２８％。“尽管印度各港口的存货及在途货物数量已经很高，而且过去３个月来国际市场价格也在上涨，但出人意料的是，进口量仍在上升，”印度炼油者协会执行董事梅塔（BV Mehta）说。

至此，印度在本年度前５个月的进口量已比去年同期的２２６．４万吨高出５９％，达到３５９．２万吨，其中食用油进口量为３４３．４万吨，比去年同期的１９３．４万吨高出７７％，而非食用油进口量却几乎减半，降至约１５．８万吨。

“看来秋收作物减产导致了国内食用油供应下降，”梅塔说。“另外，农民为等待更高价格而持货不售，这也导致目前油籽作物没有充分上市销售，在这一过程中，进口量开始迈向前所未有的水平。

受投机商补进和基金购买的影响，多数大豆类产品期价上升　　

由于投机商普遍补进且基金采取购买行动，４月１６日收盘时多数大豆类产品价格上升。外部市场依然有好有坏，交易商们表示，强劲的出口需求、不断下降的老茬大豆库存以及数量庞大的未平仓大豆合约是价格持续回升的主要动力。５月份大豆期货价格上升＄８．６０为＄３８８．８９，７月份上升＄６．９４为＄３８５．９５，８月份上升＄４．７４为３７５．３０；５月份豆粕期货价格上升＄１３．３４为＄３６３．１０，７月份上升＄１０．７４为＄３５５．６０，８月份上升＄８．１６为＄３４２．０４；５月份豆油期货价格下跌４．４１为＄８１０．１９，７月份下跌＄４．４１为＄８１６．８０，８月份下跌＄４．４１为＄８２０．５５。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Researchers Hope Lowfat Biotech Soybean Oil Finds a Market

After years of abuse in a marketplace that demands zero trans-fat oil, soybean growers and processors might have found a solution. The Associated Press reports that Pioneer Hi-Bred has engineered a soybean that will make oil with no trans-fats that could be used in fast-food kitchens and by snack makers.  Researchers say the oil could start to develop a market by 2010, and could get a “full break” by 2018.

Usually, soybean oils need hydrogen injections to stay stable in high heat, such as in a fast food fryer. The injections add fat. But with the genetically-engineered soybean, researchers say they may have found a way to put soybean oil back in the fryer. That’s big news for the fast food kitchens, the growers and Iowa, the nation’s largest producer of soybeans.

USDA Announces New Marketing Assistance Loan Regulations

USDA last week said it will begin using an improved and more stable system for determining non-recourse marketing assistance loan repayment rates and loan deficiency payment rates  for wheat, feed grains, pulse crops, oilseeds, wool, mohair and honey. “The new method will moderate fluctuations of the loan repayment rate,” said USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. “This decision reduces the effects daily market volatilities have on loan repayment rates and provides more certainty for producers who have taken advantage of marketing assistance loans or loan deficiency payments.”

The 2008 Farm Bill provides Vilsack the authority to establish a loan repayment rate that may be determined as the lesser of the loan rate plus interest and a rate based on: 1) average market prices during the previous 30 days, or 2) an alternative method the secretary may develop.

Beginning April 15, 2009, for wheat, corn, grain sorghum, soybeans, barley, oats, canola, flaxseed and sunflower seed, USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) will determine and publish daily loan repayment rates based on the average market prices during the preceding 30 days. At the same time, CCC will begin announcing each day a repayment rate based on the preceding five days. The new method will replace the current one, which is based on the previous day’s market rates. The effective alternative repayment rate will be the lower of either the 30-day average or the 5-day average.

The 30-day method will reflect a 30-day moving average of all terminal market prices for the crop, adjusted by the difference between the applicable national loan rate and the county loan rate. The 5-day method will reflect a 5-day moving average of applicable terminal market prices adjusted by applicable county differential and terminal adjustments.

Vilsack said this new loan repayment method will minimize potential forfeitures, accumulation of CCC stocks, CCC storage costs, market impediments and discrepancies in benefits across state and county boundaries.

Currently, the loan repayment rate for a county is based on the daily posted county price for the commodity, and this rate is adjusted by any premiums and discounts made to a non-recourse marketing assistance loan at the time the loan was made.

Abiove: Soy Moratorium In Amazon Limits Plantings

The Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) said last week that the amount of soy found in deforested areas of the Amazon Biome remains limited due to the soy moratorium. Soy was planted in around 1,396 hectares out of more than 150,000 hectares inspected in the Amazon Biome, Abiove said. The Amazon Biome covers an area of 419 million hectares, with 549 towns in nine states.

The inspections are part of the Brazilian soy moratorium in which major trading companies have agreed to not purchase beans from areas deforested after 2006. Although last year no soy was discovered, Abiove said that independent technical teams this year inspected a larger area. "I recognize its positive efforts and credit the significant reduction in deforestation to pacts such as the soy moratorium," Carlos Minc, Brazil's Environment Minister, said in a press release.

Paulo Adario, Greenpeace's Amazon campaign coordinator, said the findings show that those farmers who tried to cheat the moratorium will pay through loss of earnings and market access.

India Veg Oil Imports Increase Despite High Prices And large Stocks

India’s imports of vegetable oil continue to rise in spite of higher international prices and a build up of stocks in the world’s second largest buyer. India purchased 609,553 tonnes of edible oil and 31,588 tonnes of non-edible oil from the global market in March, it said. The total of 641,141 tonnes represents a 28 percent rise on the same month a year earlier. “It is surprising that import is rising month to month in spite of huge stocks at Indian ports and in pipe line, also ignoring price rise in the last three months in (the) international market,” said BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors Association of India.

This puts India’s imports for the first five months 59 percent higher year-on-year at 3.592 million tonnes, compared with 2.264 million tonnes a year earlier. Edible oil purchases accounted for 3.434 million tonnes of this, a 77 percent rise from 1.934 million tonnes a year ago, whereas non-edible oil imports roughly halved to about 158,000 tonnes.

“It seems the domestic oil availability has reduced due to lesser kharif crop,” said Mehta. “Also, the current rapeseed crop is not fully marketed as farmers are holding stock for better price and in the process import is rising to unprecedented level.”

Soy Complex Mostly Up On Short Covering By Speculators And Fund Buying

The soy complex closed mostly higher on April 16 reflecting general short covering by speculators and fund buying. Outside markets remained mixed with traders indicating that strong export demand, dwindling old crop stocks of US soybeans and surging open interest in soybeans are the main impetus behind the ongoing rally.  May bean futures were up $8.60, finishing at $388.89; July gained $6.94, closing at $385.95; and August was up $4.74, ending at $375.30. May meal increased $13.34, closing at $363.10; July was $10.74 higher, finishing at $355.60; and August meal closed up $8.16, ending at $342.04. May soyoil was $4.41 lower, finishing at $810.19; July was down $4.41, closing at $816.80; and August lost $4.41, closing at $820.55.


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