美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年２月１６日）
美国农业部公布最新报告
上周美国农业部公布了有关全球及美国商品供需、贸易及价格的２月份最新数据。此次报告将焦点转向２００８－２００９年度的各项评估，变化主要体现在其它国家和地区的产量调整和贸易进展方面。美国产量的调整及已公布的季度库存/存货水平未包含在内。与以往一样，美国农业部在报告中未就２００９－２０１０年的前景发表意见。
大豆预估供应/消费数字的调整是此次报告的市场关注点，其中巴西和阿根廷产量数字的下调首当其冲。美国农业部将这两个国家的预估产量下调了７７０万吨（巴西下调２００万吨至５７００万吨，阿根廷下调５７０万吨至４３８０万吨），同时还将南美其它国家的总产量下调１４０万吨至９１０万吨。伴随产量数字的下调，消费量数字也下调５２０万吨，其它国家和地区的预估期末库存下调３７０万吨。
就美国大豆的供需平衡面而言，预估压榨量下调３５００万吨，预估出口量上调５０００万吨，预估期末库存下调１５００万吨至２．１０亿吨。美国国内消费量的下降成为美国豆粕供需形势的焦点，豆油数量的下降源于国内消费及出口。
美国农业部上周公布的最新数字对上个月的数据进行了调整，表明老茬大豆供应充足。南美收成前景的下降使２００９年的收成前景倍受关注，市场对此的关注将在未来６０至９０天日益集中。美国农业部将在２月２６至２７日举行的前景论坛上公布新茬作物的供需数据，届时２００９年不同作物的面积情况及２００９－２０１０年度的需求情况将得到更好的反映。
另据相关消息，美国农业部２月１２日发布了其１０年期基线预测，其中包含去年１１月世界农业供需预测中的２００８－２００９年度预估消费量。基线预测根据２９９０万公顷的播种面积（低于去年的３０７０万吨）和每公顷２．８６吨的单产预测将２００９年的大豆产量定为８４６０万吨。２００９－２０１０年度的预估压榨量为４６８０万吨，低于１１月份世界农业供需预测中２００８－２００９年度的４７４０万吨，但远高于本月预计的４４９０万吨。２００９－２０１０年度的预估出口量为３２００万吨，高于本月就２００８－２００９年度预计的３１３０万吨。基线预测中２００９－２０１０年度的延期库存只有７４８万吨，但播种面积数字似乎显得相当保守，而鉴于国内豆粕消费进度放慢，压榨量预测似乎显得过大，此外，鉴于中国今年已增加大豆库存，出口预测似乎显得过高。
芝加哥期货交易所修订有关现货谷物交割凭据的规则
据《公众纪录报》的一篇报道，芝加哥期货交易所上周表示，其已修订变更规则以限制非谷物公司持有的交割凭据数量。这项尚待商品期货交易委员会监管审批的修订动议将要求非谷物公司在４个月内减持豆油交割凭据，同时还将澄清针对商业实体的报告规定。
该变更规则定于２月１７日生效，旨在减少与现货谷物行业不直接相关的公司所持有的大量交割凭证，并提高芝加哥期货交易所大豆、玉米、小麦、燕麦、大米、豆油及豆粕合约的对冲效力。
该变更规则对非谷物公司持有的装运单或仓单数量进行了限定：大豆、玉米、小麦、燕麦及糙米期货不得超过６００份；豆粕期货不得超过７２０份；豆油期货不得超过５４０份。大豆、玉米、小麦、豆粕、燕麦、大米装运单或仓单持有量超过限额的非谷物市场参与者必须在５月３１日前减持至限定数量。对于豆油期货，减持期限截至９月２５日。
《公众纪录报》称，修订规则还明确规定，如果商业实体凭借对冲豁免权持有超过投机头寸限额的多头期货头寸，则无需另外申请豁免权以持有超额交割凭据。
运输市场近况
波罗的海干散货指数曾于去年１２月降至历史最低水平，截至今年２月６日已反弹１４８％至１６４２点，升幅达５３％。所有指数均有所上升，其中定期租船指数前景尤为可观，但远期走势曲线表明将来销售能力的上升将导致运价下跌。预计运费将在二季度达到顶峰。尽管过去２个月运费迅猛上涨，但起点是历史最低水平。
由于海洋运费是当前全球经济现状的预警信号之一，因此有必要观察判断煤炭、铁矿石、矿物、谷物等干散货的海洋运费是否也是经济复苏的一种信号。这一点就谷物而言已得到充分认识：当美国的出口量比去年的纪录水平下降２５％时，美国有谷物出口没有提供太多支持。
另外，墨西哥湾和太平洋西北岸之间的运价差正在拉大，使承运商无论从太平洋西北岸起运还是从墨西哥湾沿岸起运，均不能享受明显优势。运价差在２月６日那一周结束时超过每吨１３美元，这一价差上次出现在去年１０月。一年前，运价差曾接近５０美元。如果将两地间的基差考虑在内，墨西哥湾的运价优势已缩减至每吨１美元以下。
美国一级铁路各类货物的一周运量自２００９年开始以来就差强人意，走势远远落后于近期水平。事实上，圣诞节至新年的一周货运量已跌至历史最低水平，根本没有反弹至往年同期常见的水平。
由于阿根廷和巴西南部有望迎来更多降雨，大豆类产品期价下跌
由于外部市场构成压力且天气预报称阿根廷和巴西南部将有更多降雨，大豆类产品在２月１２日收盘时价格下跌。３月份大豆期货价格下跌＄３．４９为＄３５６．８６，５月份下跌＄３．８６为＄３５６．９６，７月份下跌＄４．３２为３５８．６１；３月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄１．１０为＄３３５．８７，５月份下跌＄１．５４为＄３３２．４５，７月份下跌＄１．８７为＄３３１．４６；３月份豆油期货价格下跌＄７．７２为＄７２３．７７，５月份下跌＄７．９４为＄７３０．８２，７月份下跌＄７．７２为＄７３８．７６。
The Soy Export Weekly Update
USDA Report Recaps
USDA released its February World and United States commodity supply, demand, trade and price updates last week. Attention was directed toward 2008-09 season estimates with changes reflecting non-United States production adjustments and trade developments. No United States production adjustments or reported quarterly stocks/inventory levels were incorporated. As usual, USDA did not comment on 2009-10 prospects in that report.
Anticipated soybean supply/use estimate adjustments were the market focus going into this report, with Brazil and Argentina crop reductions the driving force. USDA cut its estimated production in these two countries by 7.7 million tonnes (Brazil down 2 million tonnes to 57 million, Argentina down 5.7 million tonnes to 43.8 million) and further cut other South American production by 1.4 million tonnes for an aggregate drop of 9.1 million tonnes. Accompanying this production drop was a 5.2 million tonne use reduction with estimated ending stocks outside the United States lowered by 3.7 million tonnes.
In the United States soybean supply/use balance, estimated crush was reduced 35 million tonnes, exports increased 50 million tonnes and ending stocks lowered 15 million to 210 million tonnes. Softer U.S. domestic usage headlined the U.S. soybean meal balance with domestic use and exports sharing the moderated soybean oil offtake.
As published with adjustments from last month, last week’s USDA updates imply sufficient old-crop supplies. Moderated South American harvest prospects most notably increase the focus on 2009 season production prospects which will become increasingly a market focus over the next 60-90 days. At its February 26-27 outlook forum, USDA will release updates of its new-crop balance sheets that should better reflect the likely 2009 acreage mix and demand prospects for the 2009-10 marketing year.
In related news, on February 12, USDA released its 10-year baseline projections that were put together last fall using its 2008-09 usage projections from November WASDE. The baseline pegged the 2009 soybean crop at 84.6 million tonnes based on planted acreage at 29.9 million hectares (down from 30.7 million hectares last year) and a yield of 2.86 tonnes per hectare. The 2009-10 crush was projected at 46.8 million tonnes, down from 47.4 million tonnes for 2008-09 in the November WASDE but well above the 44.9 million tonnes projected this month. Exports for 2009-10 were seen at 32 million tonnes versus 2008-09 exports projected this month at 31.3 million tonnes. The 2009-10 carryout shown in the baseline was just 7.48 million tonnes, but the acreage figure looks quite conservative while the crush projection now seems large given the slow down in domestic soybean meal usage and the export forecast appears high given China’s accumulation of soybean stocks this year.
CBOT Amends Cash Grain Delivery Instrument Rules
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) said last week it has amended its rule change to limit cash grain delivery instruments held by non-grain firms, according to a report form the Public Ledger. The proposal, which has yet to receive regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, would give non-grain firms another four months to reduce their soyoil delivery instruments and clarify reporting rules for commercial entities.
The rule change, effective on February 17, would reduce the large number of delivery instruments held by companies not directly related to the cash grain industry and increase the hedging effectiveness of CBOT’s soybean, corn, wheat, oat, rice, soyoil and soymeal contracts.
The rule change limits a non-grain firm to holding 600 shipping certificates or warehouse receipts for soybean, corn, wheat, oat and rough rice futures; 720 for soymeal futures; and 540 for soyoil futures. Non-grain market participants holding more than the set limit of shipping certificates or warehouse receipts for soybeans, corn, wheat, soymeal, oats or rice have until May 31 to comply. For soyoil, they have until September 25.
According to the Public Ledger, the amended rule also clarifies that commercial entities that have a hedge exemption to carry long futures positions exceeding speculative position limits do not need to file a separate exemption to hold delivery instruments in excess of limits.
Transportation Update
Since bottoming at historical levels in December, the Baltic Dry Index has rebounded 148 percent to an index of 1,642, rising 53 percent through February 6. All indices have strengthened with the time-charters showing much promise, but the forward curves reflect more capacity selling in the future leading to lower rates. Freight is expected to peak during the second quarter. Despite the rapid rise in rates the past two months, they are increasing from an absolute floor.
Because ocean freight was one of the early signals of the current global economic realities, it will be worth monitoring to see if the it also is a sign of economic recovery through the key dry bulk markets such as coal, iron ore, minerals and grain. The story on grain is well understood: U.S. exports down 25 percent from last year’s record level, so grain out of the United States does not provide much support.
Meanwhile, the spread between the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) is widening and nearly provides a shipper no clear advantage whether to ship from the PNW or the Gulf. The freight spread closed the week of February 6 above $13 per tonne, something last seen in October last year. One year ago the spread was nearly $50. By accounting for the basis differential between the two port ranges, the Gulf’s advantage slips below $1 per tonne.
Weekly rail carloadings for all traffic, as reported by U.S. Class I railroads, have not found any momentum since 2009 started, performing well behind recent levels. In fact, the weekly pace during the Christmas and New Year holidays plummeted to historic levels and really has not rebounded to levels of typical holiday weeks.
Soy Complex Lower On Increased Moisture Expected In Argentina And Southern Brazil
The soy complex closed lower on February 12 reflecting pressure from the outside markets and weather forecasts featuring better moisture for Argentina and southern Brazil. March bean futures down $3.49, finishing at $356.86; May lost $3.86, closing at $356.96; and July was down $4.32, ending at $358.61. March meal decreased $1.10 closing at $335.87; May was $1.54 lower, finishing at $332.45; and July meal closed down $1.87, ending at $331.46. March soyoil was $7.72 lower, finishing at $723.77; May was down $7.94, closing at $730.82; and July lost $7.72, closing at $738.76.
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