US Soybean Export Council

美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年２月２日）

邦吉认为南美旱灾可能导致豆价上涨

邦吉公司（Bunge Ltd.）首席执行官艾伯特·威瑟上周说，由于干旱使南美作物受损、库存下降，大豆及玉米的价格可能会上涨。威瑟在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛上说，信贷危机使农民无法购买到促进作物生长所需的足量化肥，而继信贷危机之后巴西、阿根廷、巴拉圭部分地区又出现了旱灾，因此南美产量可能会下降。威瑟没有对价格走势作具体预测。“单产可能会下降，”这位世界最大油籽加工企业的负责人说。“这是一种令人忧虑的趋势，因为目前的库存已经够低了。”

巴西和阿根廷是仅次于美国的世界最大玉米和大豆出口国，此次旱灾正值作物需要灌溉的关键生长阶段。国家气象局表示，包括布谊诺斯艾利斯省、圣菲省、恩特尔里奥斯省、科尔多瓦省、拉潘帕省、查科省、圣地亚哥-德尔埃斯特罗省等在内的阿根廷农业省份遭遇了至少自１９７１年以来最严重的旱灾。

布谊诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所上周说，阿根廷的大豆产量将比上一年度下降１７－２５％，这一降幅相当于３４５０万至３８２０万吨。如果达到这一降幅的下限，单位产量必将降至２．１４吨，为１９９７年以来的最低水平，减产幅度与灾难性的１９９７年相仿。

巴西农业部长莱因霍尔德·斯德芬斯在１月初接受采访时说，巴西今年的玉米和大豆产量可能会因为干旱而减产１０００万吨。

另据相关消息，阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯上周宣布将为遭受旱灾的农户提供新的援助。但是，农户代表却对这一援助计划表示不满。“新的援助远远不能满足我们的需求，”阿根廷农业联盟总裁艾德瓦多·布兹说。“如果这就是我们所能从政府得到的全部援助，那简直是笑话，”布兹说。阿根廷新闻社Telam报道说，援助措施能使农户节省５７００万美元的支出。

２００８年１月至１１月美国生物柴油产量同比增长５６％

２００８年１１月美国生物柴油产量达２０．６０８９万吨，低于上个月的２１．４３５３万吨，但高于２００７年１１月的１５．０４４６万吨。据此计算，２００８年１月至１１月的累计生物柴油产量已达２１９．２万吨，同比增长５６％。２００７年的总产量为１７０．５万吨，高于前一自然年度的７１．２７７７万吨。２００８年１１月生物柴油产量中有４５％以非大豆为原料，这一比例高于上个月的４４％以及去年同期的３３％。

普查局最新压榨数字

普查局公布的１２月份大豆压榨数字为３８４万吨，比行业预计高大约１．３６万吨，但仍比上个月低８．９万吨，比去年同期低６１．８万吨。２００８－２００９销售年度前４个月的压榨量比去年同期低１９１万吨，据美国农业部的最新预测，２００８－２００９年度的压榨量将达到４５９０万吨。由于豆粕库存降至３７．７万吨，降幅超过预计，而豆油库存虽升至７５．２万吨，但升幅却低于预计，因此１２月份大豆产品推算的使用量并不像之前预计的那么糟糕。尽管如此，１０－１２月这一季度的国内豆粕使用量还是同比下降了１１．２％，国内豆油使用量同比下降了５％。

研究表明妇女食用大豆可降低患癌风险

《美国临床营养杂志》２月期中的一项前瞻性研究表明，绝经后妇女较少患直肠癌与经常食用大豆有关。“该实验性研究表明，大豆及其所含有的异黄酮等成分具有抑制癌症的功效，”范德比尔特大学医学院（位于田纳西州纳什维尔）研究员Gong Yang在文章中说。

此项研究旨在评估大豆的摄入是否与直肠癌患病风险有关。研究对象包括６８４１２名４０至７０岁的妇女，她们在研究启动时均无癌症或糖尿病。当面采访以饮食频率问卷的形式对基线期（１９９７年至２０００年）和第一追踪期（２０００年至２００２年）内大豆食品的通常摄入量进行了评估。为使潜伏性疾病造成的生活方式的改变降至最低，该研究将第一年的观察结果排除在外。

在平均６．４年的追踪研究过程中共发现了３２１例直肠癌病例。对有可能造成混淆的变量进行调整后得出的结论是，大豆食品的总摄入量与直肠癌患病风险之间存在负相关关系。大豆摄入量最低的妇女相较于大豆摄入量最高的妇女，患癌风险明显增加。这种负相关主要体现于绝经后的妇女。针对大豆蛋白和异黄酮的研究也得出了类似结论。

“这项前瞻性研究表明，经常食用大豆食品可以降低绝经后妇女患直肠癌的风险，”研究发起者们说。“鉴于直肠癌是全球最常见的癌症之一，而大豆又可以轻易加入大部分饮食，因此我们的研究结果对这种常见病的防治具有重大的公共保健意义。”

由于阿根廷部分地区预计有雨，大豆类产品期价下跌

由于天气形势表明阿根廷很有可能出现降雨，大豆类产品在１月２９日收盘时价格下跌。上周对华出口因春节来临而呈平淡之势。如果不是因为阿根廷的收成顾虑以及中国的进口下降分散了大豆及豆粕市场对面临重压的长期基本面的关注，大豆及豆粕价格将很难保持目前水平，除非南美收成陷入灾难。豆油期价的前景仍与石油市场密切相关，而石油市场在全球经济萎缩的情况下始终面临供过于求的压力。由于大豆价格的进一步疲软给豆油造成压力，生物柴油利润率的负值水平有所改观，但豆油期价仍比正常价格（相对于生物柴油仅比传统柴油多享受１美元的税收优惠而言）高出１美分左右。３月份大豆期货价格下跌＄４．４１为＄３５６．５９，５月份下跌＄４．５０为＄３５９．２６，７月份下跌＄４．５９为３６１．９２；３月份豆粕期货价格下跌＄３．０９为＄３４０．２８，５月份下跌＄３．０９为＄３３９．１８，７月份下跌＄３．２０为＄３３９．６２；３月份豆油期货价格下跌＄１１．９０为＄７１３．６３，５月份下跌＄１１．６８为＄７２２．０１，７月份下跌＄１１．９０为＄７３０．１６。　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Bunge: South American Drought Likely To Increase Soy Prices

Soybean and corn prices may rise as a drought harms crops in South America and stockpiles dwindle, Bunge Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Alberto Weisser said last week. Drought in parts of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay will probably reduce output after a credit crunch led farmers to buy less fertilizer than needed to strengthen plants, Weisser said during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He didn’t provide a specific forecast for prices. “We are probably going to have lower yields,” said Weisser, head of the world’s biggest oilseed processor. “It’s something that one needs to worry about because we already have low stocks.”

Brazil and Argentina, the world’s biggest soybean and corn exporters after the United States, have faced a drought just as farmers need water for a critical growth period. Argentina’s farming provinces, including Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Entre Rios, Cordoba, La Pampa, Chaco and Santiago del Estero, have been hit by the worst drought since at least 1971, according to the National Weather Service.

The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange last week said the Argentine soybean crop would fall between 17 percent and 25 percent from last season, which would imply a crop of 34.5 to 38.2 million tonnes. To get to the low end of that range, the yield would have to drop to 2.14 tonnes, which would be the lowest yield since 1997 and about as much below trend as the disastrous 1997 crop.

Brazil may lose 10 million tonnes of corn and soybean crops this year because of drought, Agriculture Minister Reinhold Stephanes said in an interview in early January.

In related news, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez announced new aid to drought-stricken farmers last week. However, farmer representatives have rebuked her offer. “We are very far from being satisfied by this,” said Eduardo Buzzi, president of the Argentine Agrarian Federation, or FAA. “If this is all the official help we get, then it’s a joke,” Buzzi said. The state news agency Telam reported that the moves could save farmers up to $57 million.

January-November 2008 U.S. Biodiesel Production Up By 56 Percent Year-Over-Year

Domestic biodiesel output in November 2008 was 206,089 tonnes, against 214,353 in the preceding month and 150,446 in November 2007. This brought cumulative biodiesel production in January/November 2008 to 2.192 million tonnes, up by 56 percent on the year. Total 2007 output was 1.705 million tonnes, against 712,777 in the prior calendar year. 45 percent of the November 2008 biodiesel output was made from non-soy feedstocks, up from 44 percent in the prior month and 33 percent in November 2007.

Census December Crush Recap

The Census Bureau’s December soybean crush at 3.84 million tonnes was about 13,600 tonnes larger than trade expectations, but still 89,000 tonnes below the previous month and 618,000 tonnes below the previous year. The crush during the first 4 months of the 2008-09 marketing year was 1.91 million tonnes below the previous year, with for the 2008-09 crush to be 45.9 million tonnes, according to USDA’s latest estimate. Implied December product usage was as not as bad as previously thought as soybean meal stocks dropped more than expected to 377,000 tonnes and soybean oil stocks at 752,000 tonnes were not up as much as anticipated. Nevertheless, soybean meal domestic disappearance was down 11.2 percent from the previous year during October-November-December quarter and soybean oil domestic disappearance was off by 5 percent over the same time period.

Study Concludes That Soy Intake Lowers Risk For Specific Cancer In Women

Consumption of soy foods is associated with a lower risk for colorectal cancer in postmenopausal women, according to the results of a prospective study reported in the February issue of the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. “Soy and some of its constituents, such as isoflavones, have been shown to have cancer-inhibitory activities in experimental studies,” wrote researcher Gong Yang, from Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee.

The goal of this study was to evaluate whether intake of soy food is associated with a risk for colorectal cancer. The study cohort consisted of 68,412 women aged 40 to 70 years and without cancer or diabetes at enrollment. In-person interviews using a validated food-frequency questionnaire evaluated usual soy food intake at baseline (1997-2000) and during the first follow-up (2000-2002). To minimize lifestyle changes related to preclinical disease, the first year of observation was excluded.

There were 321 incident cases of colorectal cancer identified during a mean follow-up of 6.4 years. Total soy food intake was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk, after adjusting for potentially confounding variables. Women who had the lowest levels of soy intake in the study showed a much higher risk for the cancer then those in the highest levels of soy intake. This inverse association was primarily confined to postmenopausal women. Findings were similar for soy protein and isoflavone intakes.

“This prospective study suggests that consumption of soy foods may reduce the risk of colorectal cancer in postmenopausal women,” according to the study authors. “Given the fact that colorectal cancer is one of the most common cancers worldwide and that soy can be readily incorporated into most diets, our findings have important public health implications in the prevention of this common malignancy.”

Soy Complex Lower As Rain Is Expected In Parts Of Argentina

The soy complex closed lower on January 29 reflecting decent prospects for rain in Argentina, according to some of weather models. Chinese business was quiet last week because of the Chinese New Year. The soybean and meal markets are going to struggle to maintain current prices levels if they do not have Argentine crop concerns and Chinese buying to distract them from the burdensome longer-term fundamentals that they will have to contend with unless the South American crops are disasters. The fate of soybean oil futures remains closely tied to that of the petroleum markets, which have been burdened by excessive supplies as the world economy shrinks. While biodiesel margins have become less negative as soybean oil has been pressured by weaker soybean prices, soybean oil futures remain a cent or so above levels that can justified if biodiesel prices are merely the $1.00 tax credit over conventional diesel. March bean futures closed down $4.41, finishing at $356.59; May lost $4.50, closing at $359.26; and July was down $4.59, ending at $361.92. March meal decreased $3.09 closing at $340.28; May was $3.09 lower, finishing at $339.18; and July meal closed down $3.20, ending at $339.62. March soyoil was $11.90 lower, finishing at $713.63; May was down $11.68, closing at $722.01; and July lost $11.90, closing at $730.16.

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