US Soybean Export Council

美国大豆协会-国际项目－每周快报
（２００９年１月１９日）

２００８年大豆和谷物出口检测量超过４０亿蒲式耳

２００８年美国大豆及谷物出口检测量初步超过１．０９亿吨，这还不包括内部检测量（比如对墨西哥和加拿大的跨境出口以及集装箱出口检测量）。从出口地点来看，太平洋西北沿岸的出口量为３４３０万吨，创纪录最高水平，中心海湾沿岸的出口量为５５８０万吨，接近往年出口量区间的下限，得克萨斯海湾沿岸的出口量１５３０万吨，创历史第四高点。如果不是因为飓风“古斯塔夫”和“艾克”席卷了加尔维斯敦和休斯敦地区（当地的谷物出口设施遭到严重破坏），得克萨斯海湾沿岸的出口量本可达到历史第二高点。

２００９年起海洋运费呈现积极态势。好望角航线正在引领海运市场的上行走势。目前的积极态势可能与圣诞节停运期间被压抑的需求有关，但这种积极的感觉不会长久。不过，就年初而言，运费仍处于历史最低水平，因此，海上运量增幅相当明显。

中国预计会继续大量进口大豆

中国作为世界最大的食用油和油籽进口国，预计在２００８－２００９年度仍将购买大批国外大豆，但进口量增幅预计不会超过去年。

根据中国商务部最新公布的预测，１月份国内大豆进口量为３０５万吨，高于此前预计的２９８万吨。据不完全统计，尽管１月份中国压榨企业因春节一周长假而减产，但大豆进口量并没有下降。中国在截至１月９日的一周里进口了８６．１８万吨大豆，创去年６月以来美国大豆单周进口量之最。

中国海关数据显示，中国作为世界最大的大豆进口国，在１２月份进口了３３０万吨大豆，比去年同期上升１２．８％。根据一项官方调查，迫于国内豆价上涨而加快进口步伐的中国压榨企业在本月上半月进口了多达１５０万吨的大豆。

另据相关消息，中国国家粮油信息中心在一份报告中说，由于春节前夕豆粕及豆油价格飙升，大豆加工厂的压榨利润已达到“最高水平”。

该中心还预计，中国在２００８－２００９年度将进口３８００万吨大豆，仅仅略高于２００７－２００８年度的３７８１万吨（这一进口量比前一年度高３２％）。 “政府今年将释放部分国家大豆储备，也就是说大豆进口增幅不会像去年那么大，”国家粮油信息中心一位发言人说，“去年的进口量是因为某些特殊情况才出现大幅增长”。

政府已承诺以高于国际市场的价格向国内农民收购约６００万吨大豆作为国家储备。因此，一些压榨企业（尤其是在北部地区）开始加大进口量。

由于中国压榨企业在春节期间将停产一周，近几周国内豆油需求猛增，导致国内价格大幅上升。“在某些地区，由于豆油供应紧张，且１２月份的进口量大幅下降，因此出现价格连续上涨，”国家粮信息中心说。

作物平均收入备选方案最新进展

随着２００９年直接补贴和反循环补贴报名登记的推进，美国农业部分析师们正在继续深入研究作物平均收入备选方案的细节问题。目前他们需要等待国家农业统计局即将加载于相关数据库的最终单位产量数据，以便用以决定方案细节。据预计，这一过程将于本月底完成，届时还将有助于软件的开发以及针对县一级农场服务局的数据发送。

作物平均收入备选方案的主要内容包括如下：

  • 收入底限保障：美国农业部将采用２００７和２００８作物年度的年度平均价格来制定收入底限保障；
  • 作物平均收入补贴的支付：当某农场及其所在州均遭受收入损失时支付；
  • 作物平均收入补贴额为以下两项金额中较低的一项：（１）作物平均收入方案拟定的州内收入保障额 - 该州的实际收入；（２）作物平均收入方案拟定州内收入保障额的２５％ ´ 该农场特定作物播种面积的８３．３％或花生播种面积的８５％（截至２０１２年）´ 该农场最近５年的奥林匹克平均单位产量 ¸ 该州作物平均收入的基准单位产量；
  • 农场作物平均收入的基准收入 = 农场最近５个作物年度的奥林匹克平均单位产量 ´ 作物平均收入保障价格 ＋ 农场主就该作物年度为该作物支付的每英亩作物保险费；
  • 对于大豆和玉米，２００８年度的最终作物价格只有在销售年度结束（２００８年作物的销售年度截至２００９年８月３１日）后才能决定。

 

由于南美天气干燥且中国需求强劲，大豆类产品期价上升

由于大豆出口势头强劲，且南美洲（特别是阿根廷）的干燥天气使市场忧虑情绪加重，大豆类产品在１月１５日收盘时价格上升。豆油价格涨幅与取暖用油持平，因此对于那些按取暖用油价格销售生物柴油并享受１美元税费优惠的销售商而言，生物柴油的利润率仍处于负值区间。南美作物引发的忧虑成为驱动价格回升的主要力量，同时中国对美国大豆的强劲需求又提供了进一步支持。尽管南美作物面临的威胁使价格有望进一步上涨，但在全球需求明显萎缩（中国除外，因为政府采取的收购价保底措施正在导致国内企业弃用国产大豆，转而采用进口大豆）的情况下，即使南美作物的损失再大，也不可能确保当前价格得以维持。３
月份大豆期货价格上升＄８．４５为＄３６５．４１，５月份上升＄８．４５为＄３６８．８３，７月份上升＄８．５４为３７２．３０；３月份豆粕期货价格上升＄８．８２为＄３３６．２０，５月份上升＄８．７１为＄３３７．８５，７月份上升＄８．６０为＄３４０．７２；３月份豆油期货价格上升＄７．７２为＄７５８．３８，５月份上升＄７．５０为＄７６６．５４，７月份上升＄７．５０为＄７７４．７０。　　

The Soy Export Weekly Update

2008 Soybean And Grain Export Inspections Top 4 Billion Bushels

U.S. soybean and grain export inspections in 2008 preliminarily totaled more than 109 million tonnes, excluding interior inspections (e.g., cross border into Mexico and Canada, and container inspection). By port range the Pacific Northwest handled a record 34.3 million tonnes. The Center Gulf handled 55.8 million tonnes, something near the lower end of what it traditionally handles. The Texas Gulf handled its fourth largest volume of 15.3 million tonnes. Texas Gulf elevators could have achieved the second highest volume had hurricanes Gustav and Ike not plowed over the Galveston and Houston area where they severely hampered grain export logistics.

Ocean freight rates started 2009 with a positive tone. The Capesize market is leading the way higher. The positive tone may be related to pent-up demand from the long Christmas break and the positive feeling will be short lived. However, rates are starting the year at historically low levels so any upward movement looks quite impressive.

China Expected To Continue To Import Large Quantities Of Soybeans

China, the world’s top buyer of edible oils and oilseeds, is forecast to continue its trend of purchasing large quantities of overseas soybeans in the 2008-09 season but the rate of import growth is expected to remain almost stagnant compared to the previous year.

China’s commerce ministry (MOFCOM) revised up its estimates on the country’s soybean imports for January to 3.05 million tonnes, up from its earlier projected 2.98 million tonnes. The incomplete figures indicate no slowdown in imports for January when Chinese crushers would scale down production due to the week-long Lunar New Year holidays. China purchased 861,800 tonnes for the week of January 9 – its largest purchase of U.S. soybeans in a single week since June.

China, the world’s largest soy buyer, imported 3.3 million tonnes of soy in December, a rise of 12.8 percent from a year earlier, according to official customs figure. Chinese crushers have purchased as much as 1.5 million tonnes of soybeans in the first half of this month as crushers stepped up imports on rising domestic prices of soy products, according to an official survey.

In related news, crushing margins for soy plants have hit “the highest level” due to surging soymeal and soyoil prices ahead of the Lunar Chinese New Year, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) said in a report.

CNGOIC also predicted that China would import 38 million tonnes of soybeans in 2008-09, only slightly up from 37.81 million tonnes in 2007-08, which was a 32 percent increase from the previous season. “The government will release some of its state soya reserves in the year, which will mean import growth is not as big as last year,” said a spokesperson from CNGOIC. “Some special cases contributed to the high growth of imports last year.”

The government has agreed to purchase around 6 million tonnes of soybeans for state reserves from local farmers at higher prices than are available in the international market. This has led to some crushers, particularly in northern areas, increasing their imports.

Chinese demand for soyoil has jumped in recent weeks ahead of the new year holidays, when crushing plants tend to shut down for a week, triggering a jump in domestic prices. “A tightening soyoil supply in some areas, coupled with sharply lower imports in December, led to continuous price rises,” CNGOIC said.

Update On ACRE Program

USDA analysts continue to work on details for the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program as signup for the 2009 Direct and Counter-cyclical Program (DCP) moves forward. USDA analysts are awaiting the final yield data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to be loaded in the appropriate database so they can be accessed to use to determine program details. Expectations are this process should be completed by the end of this month and that also will aid in getting software developed and sent to county FSA offices.

ACRE program highlights include:

  • The revenue guarantee: USDA will use the season average prices for 2007 and 2008 crop years to set the revenue guarantee.

 

  • ACRE payments: Issued when both the state and the farm have incurred a revenue loss.
  • ACRE payment is lesser of: ACRE state revenue guarantee minus state actual revenue, or 25 percent of ACRE state revenue guarantee times 83.3 percent of the farm’s acres planted to the covered commodity or peanuts (85 percent for the 2012 crop) times the farm’s Olympic average yield for the most recent 5 years divided by the State’s ACRE benchmark yield.

 

  • Farm’s ACRE benchmark revenue is the Olympic average of farm’s yields for the 5 most recent crop years times ACRE guarantee price plus per acre crop insurance premium paid by the farmer for the crop for the crop year.
  • The final 2008 crop prices will not be determined in the case of soybeans and corn until completion of the marketing year - August 31, 2009 for the 2008 crop.

 

Soy Complex Higher On Dry Weather In South America And Strong Demand From China

The soy complex closed higher on January 15 reflecting strong export sales report for soybeans and heightened concerns about dry conditions in South America, especially in Argentina. Gains in soybean oil were comparable to those of heating oil, maintaining biodiesel margins in negative territory for those selling biodiesel for no more than heating oil prices plus the $1.00 tax credit. South American crop concerns were the driving forces behind the rally, with strong Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans providing additional support. While the path of least resistance for prices is higher as long as South American crops are being threatened, it is unlikely that crop losses there can be large enough to sustain current price levels given the sharp drop in world demand except for China, where high government support prices are encouraging the use of imported soybeans at the expense domestically produced soybeans. March bean futures closed up $8.45, finishing at $365.41; May gained $8.45, closing at $368.83; and July was up $8.54, ending at $372.30. March meal increased $8.82 closing at $336.20; May was $8.71 higher, finishing at $337.85; and July meal closed up $8.60, ending at $340.72. March soyoil was $7.72 higher, finishing at $758.38; May was up $7.50, closing at $766.54; and July gained $7.50, closing at $774.70.

 

 

2009-01-19